04 May 2010
 
Update from the Gulf

Gentle readers, this is something important about the situation in the Gulf, and these are the words of my friend Ray, who is authoritative on marine matters. What he says is worth taking onboard, since the media has the oil spill in its teeth and is fanning hysteria. Ray comments that the disaster is real, but much more limited than it is being reported. Most fishing and shrimping activities are continuing as usual- panic will only hurt the industry.
 
Not down for the Count:

Ray has been in New Orleans now for nearly a week, taking a break from the Eastern Shore of Maryland. He is a native Cajun, and his reporting is authoritative.
 
Here is the real deal: The Gulf Ecosystem is not down for the count. If they are able to stop within a week we are actually in pretty good shape all things considered. But the media has killed our fishing economy. First Louisiana (and Texas) are not closed to shrimping and oystering, only two parishes in extreme South Eastern Louisiana have closed oysterbeds and the shrimp fleet bottled in by oil booms. The rest of Louisiana west of the Mississippi, and that is more than 6/8s of the state is open for fishing. The closed areas are closed as a precaution, not due to contamination. So far only a few acres of Louisiana marsh have been touched by oil.
 
Not the Exxon Valdez

If the well is cut off soon this is not the largest slick in history. Ray says to listen carefully even to the infotainment and speculation that is passing for news. IF THE LEAK CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE IT WILL EXCEED THE EXXON VALDIZE SPILL IN ABOUT TWO MONTHS. The leak won't continue that long.
 
Geography is Favorable

Now consider the micro geography of where the slick is right now. It is in the bight between the toe of Louisiana and the bulge in Florida where Apalachicola juts into the Gulf. This is an area where what few marshes exist are protected by barrier islands. It is the marshes that are the nursery of the Gulf. Off of Ship Island, Horn Island, Dauphin Island, etc. the bottom is basically a marine desert, sand flats, few grass flats, few reefs, not much to foul. The passes between the barrier islands are narrow and if sea conditions hold, relatively easy to boom off. Beaches can be cleaned. Think of the news coverage so far. How many oiled birds have been photographed? (One so far, but aired more times than Ray can count). As of this morning, there still don't is not an oiled marsh or beach.
 
Floating Oil Breaks Down

The sun is out, the temperature will reach 90 at least one time this week. Crude oil biodegrades and does so most effectively in conditions of heat. The prevailing wind is blowing offshore, continuing to buy us time to prepare for landfall. Ray says that God watches over the Gulf Coast. Prevailing winds and seas are forcing the slick to the NNE, right into the bight. Now the winds are slowing its progress ashore and providing maximum biodegradable conditions. All that is needed is two man-made breaks: Stop the flow, and make wise use of the time and location.
 
Business as Usual

Unfortunately, even if the seemingly impossible happened and we avoided all contamination our fishing economy has already been sunk by the media hype and misinformation. Locally people are hoarding local seafood and even local vendors are looking for "more reliable sources of supply". Cajuns are eating Chinese crawfish and shrimp. Maryland gets most of its blue crabs from Louisiana, and buyers are looking elsewhere. Yet the overwhelming majority of the Gulf fisheries are open and activity is normal. Depressed buying based on unfounded fears and good-to-excellent catches are depressing prices. Louisiana fisheries account for 40% of domestic seafood production and we are turning to foreign sources even as the slick fight continues and the fishery is as yet almost untouched.
 
Not Slimed Yet

Cajuns hope the rest of the country prays for their success in the slick battle which is largely being waged by a portion of the fishing fleet itself. The one thing that the rest of the country could do that would save the Gulf fishing economy and benefit the balance of payments would be to insist on and buy Louisiana seafood before it rots on the dock. Finally, Ray says to take everything we hear from the national news media with a grain of salt. Louisiana is not slimed yet!
 





Copyright 2010 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
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