13 January 2011

Figures Don’t Lie

(NOAA chart of the snow cover this week in North America, based on figures provided by regional weather offices and satellite imagery. Chart official US Government.)


Figures don’t lie, they say, but liars figure.

That appears to be the case with several major information campaigns. I am not going to go off on the wind and solar energy tangent, which appear now to be fantastically expensive per watt, or the mater of the climate and greenhouse gas.

There is plenty of controversy on what is happening, and there are statistics flying everywhere.

I do know that we skipped the drama here on the big storm; hard to believe, since down south the Carolinas got hammered and a pal up in Mass said he couldn't even get out of his garage due to the amount of snow piled against it.

I have no idea what is happening with the weather this year.

We certainly dodged a...oh, wait, I am toning down my rhetoric.

One thing I need to note is the President’s good turn on the podium last night. My pal Admiral Mac raced back from a meeting to watch it on the television, and I shared the uplifting feeling that came from his remarks.

If it makes everyone feel better that is a good thing.

The more I read on the timeline to the slaughter, though, it seems the creep should have been on the "do not sell" list for firearms. I guess people are afraid to turn people in- though the cops seem to have known about him well enough, and they did not take the logical step, which was to report him as a potential civil menace.

If we are not going to continue shredding the Constitution, we need to step up and take responsibility for our society.

That is the thing that is at the heart of all the heated rhetoric, the worry about the future. We are having a hard time taking in all the statistics about the crushing Debt, the Rise of China, Peak Oil, terrorists of all stripes, foreign and domestic and Russia re-arming.

We were at Willow the other day for lunch, blessedly ignorant of what was going to happen in Tucson, and we naturally got onto the problems of the world over the black bean soup of the day and the half Turkey Rueben sandwiches.

My pal from out west was in town for a consulting gig, and he follows this stuff pretty carefully. I was moping a bit. There are only hard choices ahead, and no pleasant answers. Bill sat across from him, recently bailed out of the Human Intelligence trade and now a part-time consultant.
My pal said what we have to get used to is that we are going to be a Spanglish culture over time. There is no point in getting up in arms about it. The statistics of the demographic change are inevitable by now, and it will be inevitable. The languages and the cultures are going to collide and fuse in some manner we do not yet understand.

One thing that is positive is that we will continue to grow in population. I sighed and said “I probably ought to get one of those Rosetta Stone language programs and start learning some Spanish.”

“Inevitable,” said my pal, and Bill nodded. “Of course, there is some hope. The Chinese are going to fall off the cliff. The impact of the ‘one-child’ policy will hammer their demographics.”

“Can’t they alter course?” I asked.

“Nope. They are trying and it is too late. The trough is coming in about twenty-five years that will do the same thing to China that is already happening in Japan.”

“That will take the pressure off the Russian Far East,” said Bill.

My pal shook his head. “Look at the demographics. In thirty years the last Russian will die of lung cancer and cirrhosis of the liver. There may be people living there, but they won’t be Russians.”

“So all we have to do is hang on?” I asked.

“Yes. The United States will be the third largest country on earth, with a vigorous population. We will be speaking Spanglish, though.”

“Damn,” I said, taking a spoonful of the delightfully piquant black beans. “Carrumba. I guess the figures don’t lie.”

Copyright 2011 Vic Socotra
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