15 March 2004

It is the precise middle of the merry month of March, and there are little black blossoms all around. They are the negative image of the bright Spring flowers to come. They have fire at their core.

Two Palestinian kids strapped on martyr vests yesterday and penetrated the tall fence and tight security at the Israeli port of Ashdod. Their vests were filled with shrapnel, optimized to inflict mass casualty. It is said to be one of the first attacks to originate from the Gaza Strip, and the teens killed ten.

The Israelis responded with blossoming rockets.

A van blew up in a pillar of smoke adjacent to the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, but did not kill anyone. There are improvised explosive devices on the side of the road all over Iraq, and six American kids are dead.

The insurgents are reportedly gaining sophistication, and the honing their skills. The expertise is from Hizbollah craftsmen in Palestine, part of the dark side of global cross-fertilization.

It is not the exact middle of the month on the Christian calendar, of course. It is the middle of the Roman one. It is the Ides, and the anniversary of the murder of great Caesar on the Rostrum in the Forum.

Caesar was too powerful, and his enemies brought him down, all at once, each man putting a knife in him so there would be only collective guilt. You remember how Shakespeare said it. "Beware yon Cassius. He has a lean and hungry look."

Sort of like John Kerry.

There is a lot of that sort of collectivism going around. We will have months and months to go of this Presidential campaign before our fate is revealed. The Russians and the Spanish are way ahead of us. They have newly minted Administrations and can move on with exciting new policies and press conferences. Vladimir Putin rolled to victory with an overwhelming margin. The key was getting enough disinterested Russian to vote. The necessary 50% was reached, with the assistance of certain voter incentives from Moscow Center, including the mass voting of the Russian Army by formation. Free movie tickets to other citizens under less direct control.

It is a shocking display of electorial manipulation. Like Chicago in the good old days.

Vladimr says he is committed to working on democracy in his next term, like Mayor Daley used to say, and I am sure he is going to get right on it. I stand foursquare for a stabile, happy Russia with first-run movies. They were the very best of enemies, and I hope we can maintain a relationship as friends.

The melt-down of the ruling conservative party in Spain is another matter altogether. The Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) won an upset victory over the ruling Popular Party of outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. The final tallies suggest that the conservatives, favored to win until four days ago, garnered only 38% of the vote. The Socialists got the majority with 43% and picked up 38 seats in the Parliament.

It appears the commuter train bombings were the pivot on which the election turned. Spanish voters blamed the government directly for the attacks on 11 March. Al Qaida appears to have successfully spun the message that the Aznar government's endorsement of the Iraq war and the deployment of a Spanish brigade in support were the justification for the bombing. The Government's attempt to pin the rap on the Basques was seen as a feeble effort to spin the blame toward the usual suspects. The voters were not buying it.

The Prime Minister-elect, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, says he will pull the troops out of Iraq at the scheduled rotation point in June. They will not be relieved, he says, though the arm twisting will begin shortly.

It will be interesting to see how the victors play this. Zapatero's margin in the Parliament is narrow, and he will need help in governing. He may create a National Unity cabinet, and coordinate a national campaign focused on combating terrorism on the most important front, at home.

Al Qaida will probably take this as a signal victory, changing the course of a national election in a major Western nation-state. They told us what they were going to do. They have struck almost all the alliance. They hit the Australians on their front porch at Bali. They slaughtered the commuters in Madrid. Britain has not been attacked, not yet, but I'm sure there is an operational plan. They must be feeling pretty good this week, perhaps as good as the Senators of Rome, who grabbed Caesar's cloak and cut him up.

They could not know that Caesar Augustus would be arriving soon, and the Republic of Rome was finished for good.

Victory is an interesting thing. There are times and tides in the affairs of the world. The latter Romans used to say: "Sic transit gloria mundi." Glory is fleeting. It always passes away.

That is what the conservatives in Spain are thinking this morning. They collared more terrorists than anyone else in Europe. Presided on two terms of economic prosperity, stabilization of the currency and the successful integration of the economy with the European Union. The Spanish brigade rolled to victory with the American and British armored columns to Baghdad.

Osama is a student of history. He should remember this. Sic transit gloria.

Mundi. Maybe we should, too.

Copyright 2004 Vic Socotra