17 January 2008

Clipboards



The heebie-jeebies are abroad in the land. I hear it everywhere, and not just places like Michigan. The Hill is sputtering about jump starts to the economy, tax refunds that sound absurd, like a couple hundred bucks in the form of a rebate for the average working stiff is going to make any difference.

I got a whiff of the trouble heard it in the office passageway yesterday from a sleek member of the Consulting Class. He was wondering about coverage issues, and ruminating on the difference between being on a revenue-generating task and being on the dreaded “overhead.”

In business, they talk about “profit and loss centers,” but in my experience there are no “loss centers,” or at least not for long.

He had an electronic clipping from the business section of the Post that talked about the government division of one of our cross-town rivals being on the block. The Carlylse Group, a hooded band of carnivorous investors, is supposed to be interested in the acquisition.

The hallmark of that ritual is the arrival at the work-place of a small group of sleek Consultants who look vaguely familiar. They are   holding clipboards, and look at your office without speaking and take notes.

Our rival employs 12,000 people in the region, which is a lot of houses and mortgages.

The rumors and reports are enough to keep everyone on their toes, though it could also induce a mass case of the vapors.

I think it is the commentators who work themselves into a froth so they have something to talk about in the morning, and then I look down and see the dancing fingers on my own hands hitting the keys.

Maybe we all ought to just shut up and get on with what we have to do.

I don't know what the 14th Chairman of the Fed is thinking, though he is one of the people who is actually supposed to act. Mr. Ben Bernanke is keeping his own counsel, though he will have to say something presently.

His options are limited, as I understand it, though if I understood monetary policy I'm sure there are plenty of levers to pull and whistles to blow.

The only one that would mean anything would be lowering the prime rate, which eventually would permit me to re-finance the real estate I own. That is a way off, I'm afraid, and people would really have to start panicking to make it worthwhile.

I should be ahead of the curve on that. I should have penned one of those   “How to Profit from the Coming Catastrophe” self-help books that sell so well to the unemployed.

Thank God I am not more vulnerable on that count. I shudder when I think of the irrational things people were doing when it looked like the sky was the limit on real estate. I know some entrepreneurs who got into gigantic houses that were on the stretch limits of what they could manage. The bursting of the bubble has robbed them of the speculative profit, and there is no way for them to get out from under without taking a very cold bath.

Regardless of what Mr. Bernanke does, it is not going to be enough to bale them out. A steady contract and my little two-bedroom condo looks pretty damn good at the moment.

Copyright 2008 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

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