05 January 2008

Final Four


It is down to the Final Four, and it is not even March Madness yet, and not even basketball.

At least that is what it said in the e-mail from my Presidential Candidate this morning. I know we are all a little tired of pigs and ethanol, though the whole Iowa thing was pretty interesting. A rural state with not many people has the first real primary vote, and the candidates are drooling all over themselves to talk to voters who, as far as my slice of the urban megalopolis is concerned, may as well be living on the moon.

The people of New Hampshire have only a few days to be treated as Kings and Queens, though they are getting the treatment, but good. There is a lot on the line and the time is very compressed.

Hillary trailed in another the recent race, though it may not have been the one you heard about. She was an hour behind Bill in getting to New Hampshire. She got in at four, and Bill was on the ground and preparing for an interview at three.

Bill has been really good about keeping in touch during this and I sent him some money to cover gas expenses while he is driving around New Hampshire. He left Iowa at eleven pm the night of the caucuses, and I think I covered part of his air-fare, or some foam hats, and he arrived at Nashua ready to go.

He swung right into events, and did them all day, appearance to appearance, interview to interview, and into the debate.

He told me in one of his helpful e-mail updates that he had been doing events all day, and was heading out for a television interview in a few minutes. He was pretty upbeat, so I donated immediately. He said that although it did not look like it, he had accomplished a lot in Iowa.

The Richardson campaign mobilized nearly 20,000 voters and took 7% of the caucus votes in the first round. Sadly, given the structure of the Democratic party caucus process, and the unexpectedly large turnout for Obama, Bill was not able to hold onto all of them going into the final round. Still it was enough to make the top four, which is the cut off for the Democratic debate tonight in new Hampshire.

This has been going on forever, hasn't it?

The Republicans just count every vote, so their resounding rejection of Mr. Romney was clear. Reverend Mike Huckabee might be at his zenith, since he just found out that there is a foreign policy aspect to the Presidency, and is having to do some research on the trip to New Hampshire.

There is a lot that the Republican base has fond to like about Rev Huckabee. There is the religion thing, of course, and his plan to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and impose a flat tax is always appealing until you think through the full implications.

Governor Romney was clearly stung by the rejection of his well-financed and well-organized campaign. He was quoted as saying that Huckabee ran as a Baptist Minister, an option that "was not available to me." I think the whole thing is a little sad. I know the Romney clan through my Dad, who worked for Mitt's father, and I admire their intelligence, hard work, pragmatism and energy.

When George Romney ran for President, it was his birthplace (in Mexico) that was a bigger deal than his faith, but we seem to have regressed a bit in our historic secularism. I think he would be the same sort of bi-partisan administrator that he was in Massachusetts, having to balance Blue Boston against the rest of a basically rural Red state.

I do not believe he will get the chance.

The real winner in this is John McCain, of course. I admire the guy, and always have. But I have a friend who worked with him when he was still on active duty, and ran the Navy's Senate office on the Hill. She doesn't trust him any further than she can throw him. I trust my friends judgment, but that does not stop the fact that I think he is going to win the Republican vote in New Hampshire.

They have been saying that John McCain is too old to be President, and his time is done. If elected, he would be older than Ronald Reagan at his inauguration. I enjoyed the Reagan presidency; particularly the dementia part of it, so I do not think that age should be a disqualifier.

Besides, look at what these driven people have to do. I am stressed out enough just getting out of bed in the morning.   

The caucuses were just shutting down and they were off again. John beat Bill, my Bill, not Hillary's, to New Hampshire, having his first appearance of the day just after mid-night in Peterborough to comment on his performance, vis a vis Rev. Huckabee and Mr. Romney.

He is at Jillian's Restaurant in Manchester at 0830 this morning, and then The Woodbury School in Salem around lunchtime, before shutting down for debate preparation. Then the debate tonight, of course, and tomorrow he hits City Hall in Nashua, which is the only official appearance on the itinerary. Monday, of course, he is at the Stage Restaurant & Cafe in Keene, and the Hopkins Center at Dartmouth College in Hanover in the middle of the day. Then over to Concord, to the state capital for a speech and then on to City Hall in Manchester at three o'clock. He will get out the vote on the Route One By-pass in Exeter, then Portsmouth. Election day he will relax, and attend his Victory Celebration at the Nashua Crowne Plaza.

I like that sort of confidence, don't you?

The Reverend Huckabee is at the Londonderry Middle School Cafeteria at ten this morning, the Lobster Tail Restaurant in Wyndham for lunch, and then back to the hotel for debate preparation. The pressure will be on him now that he has whipped Mr. Romney, and people may actually start paying attention to what he says. Tomorrow, the front-runner is at Parker's Maple Barn in Mason, then nothing official until Monday breakfast at American Legion Post #7 in Rochester.

It is a wonder the motorcades do not collide more often.

Mitt Romney is taking his campaign to the Pinkerton Academy this morning, getting an early start on it, and heading immediately thereafter to the Bean Towne Coffee House and Café in Hampstead. After a quick hit of java- I am not sure if the candidate drinks coffee- he zooms over to Caesario's Pizza in Manchester for an appearance before the debate. Afterwards, he is headed to chill down at Varick's Sports with a soft drink and spin the results of the debate. Tomorrow, he is having an early breakfast at Young's in Durham, and then after church he is hanging with the constituents at the Elm Street School in Nashua.

All the Republican candidates will be at the Presidential Brunch in Milford on Sunday in Milford, $125 a ticket, $1,250 for a table of ten, so that can be added to all the schedules for tomorrow. The Romney campaign has not contacted me with the agenda for Monday.

That is what the three Republicans are up to; there is supposed to be a guy named Guliani in this thing, too, but I have not heard a word about him this week. Maybe he had to drive from Iowa.

The debates tonight will not mix oil and water, though they will be back-to-back. The two ninety-minute debates will be on primetime, though I cannot image why.

The Barak Obama phenomenon is galvanizing on so many levels that it is no wonder people are giddy. He is the clear front-runner for the first time, and that is a dangerous thing against the Clinton machine. I don't know what you thought when he burst onto the national stage at the last Democratic convention, but my immediate thought at the time was that he looked Presidential, and I still think that.

Obama is still young enough to be active, but his official schedule is not as chock-full as John's. He is at the Nashua North High School at ten this morning, though he is not planning a breakneck schedule prior to the debate tonight. The Democrats are at the Dana Center for the Humanities at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. Tomorrow, he is at Exeter Area High School before driving over to the Pinkerton Academy, and then the Salem High Auditorium in mid-afternoon, then the Keene High School Cafeteria Address before finishing the day at City Hall in Manchester. Election night he is rallying at the Nashua South High School.

John Edwards is in the shower right now, or drying his hair, getting ready for the Portsmouth Canvass Kick Off at nine, then over to Concord and a rally at the Bektash Temple Hall. Later, he is supposed to hook up with his parents, Bobbie and Wallace, for a big Family-themed rally at the Lebanon High School. The debate tonight, of course, and then tomorrow he fights for the Middle Class at the Manchester town hall, again with his folks, and fights for Health Care at a location to be announced in Keene. He is going to support Working Families later in the afternoon, and Give America Hope later in a location to be determined. Monday, the Edwards family will be at the Radisson Hotel in Nashua, though whether they are supporting health care, families, the middle class or giving hope has not been released by the campaign. His wife, Elizabeth, will be at a house party on Monday thrown by Pat and Steve Wilson in Exeter, while the Candidate hits the Manchester Franco-American Centre.

John is working hard, and must expect to do well down south next week, but this is so compressed that I don't know if a bump up in South Carolina, followed by Blue Rusty Michigan will leave him with any momentum.

And then, of course, Hillary. The Clinton machine is keeping to the tried-and-true canned format, even if it now looks a little bedraggled. She attends a “Time to Pick a President” event at the Merrimack Valley High School this morning in Penacook, and reprises the act this evening at the IUPAT Council #35 Training Facility in Brentwood. Then over to the debate tonight, and a “Pick a President” tomorrow at the Nashua North High School Gym.

Monday, it is over to the McConnell Center in Dover for lunch. Election night she will be at the Athletics and Recreation Complex in Manchester, right until the polls close, and then she may be done with New Hampshire forever.

My man, Bill Richardson, will be greeting people in downtown Portsmouth this morning and then drop in at the Village Hardware in Hampton, NH. Tomorrow, he has a “final presidential job interview” at Timberland in Stratham, and then a last gasp “Get Out the Vote Roundup” at the Portsmouth Gas Light Company on Monday.

In his note to me, he said he was not giving up, and he asked me not to despair. He said that the race is still very fluid, and based on what happened in Iowa, a lot of voters are re-thinking their positions.
“Suddenly,” he wrote, “"inevitable" doesn't seem so inevitable anymore.”

“Shoot,” he wrote, “The way I look at it, I made the "Final Four!"

He closed saying that he had to get moving, though he would stay in touch. I will continue to send small checks along, since I have my own strategy in the race, and have from the beginning.

I do not agree that we should pull out the troops immediately from Iraq, and I think a lot of the rest of the rhetoric is nonsense. But Bill has governed New Mexico pragmatically, and was a good Congressman, Secretary and Ambassador. He is the only one of these driven people I know personally, having traveled with him for weeks at a time.

I am hoping that when it is all resolved, there will be a national security position for me in Bill Richardson's Office of the Vice President.

President Obama is going to need his help on the whole foreign policy thing, you know?

Copyright 2008 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

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