Vic Socotra

07 January 2009

Into the Breach

(Lawrence Olivier as Richard V- 1944)

If I had to go somewhere this morning- and I do- it would be in a police cruiser, rather than slogging across a vast cold field of mud. Even in the back of a squadcar would be preferable, in a pinch.

It is cold but not to the precise degree. The difference of a single digit in temperature has given us a landscape of pooled dark rain rippling silver in the lights as the drops pelt down.

Just a smidgen colder and this would be eight inches of snow, paralyzing. As it is, just the bridges are frozen, and the upper elevations to the west. It is expected to warm slightly toward mid-day, which will make the mile-long trudge from the Commissary parking lot at the Air Force Base a little more tolerable, bundled in trench coat and broad-brimmed hat.

I’d whine about that, but it is just the way it is and that is all there is to the matter. But wardrobe is crucial to attending the meetings, and sensible walking shoes, tightly woven fabrics and long foul weather gear need to be stacked by the door.

Snow would be easier, in a way, in that I would simply have looked out the tall glass window, seen the white and the cars driven haphazardly into the hedges, and gone back to bed.

The company was crackling until late last night as the rain hissed. Waiting on an XL spread-sheet, I checked what my friends thought about the Fate of the West. Interspersed with the cheery news from the Times about the prospect of trillion dollar deficits for the foreseeable future.

I am done with wisdom provided by well-educated commentators. Simple common sense would have kept us out of this mess, but alas, we had none. Deficit means that foreigners are not going to park their wealth in our T-Bills, and that means inflation. I have not figured out the precise implications of that, beyond that fact that things with real tangible value will be more important than money, and that those on fixed incomes are going to confront slow strangulation.

If not Zimbabwe on the banks of the Potomac, perhaps there will be a whiff of Weimar in the air.

There has to be a private strategy to deal with the public disaster, and maybe some commentator will tell us about it presently. In the meantime, I fear it means nothing more than trying to keep head above water and the maintenance of a year’s stock of dried food-stuff in the basement, if I had one.

I remember my pal the Admiral describing life in 1933 on the family farm in Iowa, when the banks closed and they traded the food from their land for the services of life. Of course, nothing so desperate could happen today. I heard it on the radio.

In the meantime there is the great change coming. The selection of Leon Panetta to be the next director of CIA still has our little chattering class chattering away.

Spooks tend to be worst-case people by way of training, since we have to answer the question at the morning briefing: “Well, Lieutenant, what is the worst that could happen?”

“Well, Sir, the flight time of the Russian SS-N-20 missile launched from the Barents Sea to the parking lot outside is twelve minutes.”

You have to balance what could be, with what will likely be, but it all starts with understanding the situation and capabilities of the players on the field. Intense analysis has gone into an assessment of what is going to happen to the public allocations for strategic intelligence, since that is where our livelihoods come from.

One friend opined that careerist John Brennan and not Panetta was the first choice to run the CIA, which could hardly be seen as pandering to the left, and indicated a strong commitment to moderation.

Others pointed out that immediately caving to the demands of the lunatic fringe could hardly be seen as a demonstration of resolve. Conducting an end-run around the Senate Democrats to place a non-professional in the job must mean something. They darkly drew this conclusion: Leon Panetta’s management experience means he can cut budgets he doesn't like; is free of association with the controversy over interrogations and renditions, and not beholding to institutions that are of marginal utility to a broader social agenda.

One said it was going to extend to the larger elephant in the room, the Department of Defense. Secretary Gates is being kept on as a good soldier to impose a new, revised, and flat DOD budget for Fiscal 2010, and slash some big-ticket programs.

I am of the opinion that so long as the wars continue, any administration must continue at least tepid support to institutions they do not understand, and the public failure to warn of disaster could be a political liability.

I got my spreadsheet about the contract and was going to shut down the system for the night when I saw the last word, from someone who was there at the same time I was, and with whom I agree. He thinks benign neglect, tinged with distrust is what was likely to happen. “Events could change this,” he said. “But neither the Middle East conflicts, the 1st World Trade Tower attack, Bosnia, Kosovo nor the East Africa Embassy Bombings caused the Clinton Administration to invest more in DoD or Intelligence. Remember, that was with GDP growth in hitting double digits and unemployment moving towards 3%. And the new National Security Team? It is all the same people. Figure it out.”

I shut the system down and sighed. “Once more into the breach,” the Bard said. I think it was from Henry the Fifth, about the battle of Agincourt. We can do it, of course we can. I just feel a lot older this time, and the arthritis is hampering my agility.

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