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07 February 2008 The Fever The fever is upon us here. There was a day of exhilaration, almost shock, which continues in the media, but those of us for whom the business of government is also sport, we are on to the Next Big Thing. Yesterday, entice Rep Rahm Emmanuel to come to the White House to be the Chief of Staff; there was a coy aspect to the exchange that was a little puzzling, considering that this should have been a question answered before it was answered. Mr. Emmanuel is reputed to be very smart, a bit of a pit-bull and of the high-elbows style of politics. I think if he manages to be “bad cop” to President Obama’s Good, it is a useful thing for the new Administration. It also suggests that we can cut some of the disorganization from the transition that plagued Mr. Clinton, and Rahm’s previous experience in the West Wing will help to cut to effective governance with the alacrity that the economic circumstances demand. In fact, the television aspect of all this is striking. The thriller show “24” helped to socialize the idea of an African-American President, and the West Wing showed the glamour of committed Democrats in control, even if it was during the Republican ascendancy. It is a fortunate thing that it has been only eight years since there was a Democratic White House, not twelve, as there had been for Mr. Clinton. The Pool of experienced people was thin, since Mr. Carter’s White House had only lasted four short years and was filled with outsiders from a southern states who never did really understand how the imperial city works. It is not dissimilar to what happens in constitutional monarchies like Britain: “The King is Dead,” goes the cry: “Long live the King!” There are thousands of jobs that will be coming open even before the Plum Book is published. Some are significant and some not, but all of us get a chance to play at the game in our small ways, at least those who do not have the “R” initial in their resume. All sorts of names are being floated, some with little bearing on reality, but it is all in good fun. There was talk that Mr. Obama might bring Colin Powell into the fold, which seems wildly unlikely. The senior Republican who may be asked to stay in is the gray and effective Robert Gates at the Pentagon. There is a war to be disengaged from, and another that must be won, and Mr. Gates is nothing if not a good soldier. Mike McConnell, a good and selfless public servant, will be gone. He is tainted with his valiant (and successful) effort to reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the word on the street is that bluff and phlegmatic John Brennan, former Deputy DCI, will replace him. We are all checking our Rolodexes. John ran a concern called The Analysis Company (TAC) and I imagine some of those folks will be coming back with him. Admiral McConnell traveled to Chicago to give the president-elect his first no-holds-barred version of the President’s Daily Briefing at the FBI regional HQ. I wish I could have been there to see all the body language. I don’t know if the Russian threat to deploy short-range weapons to the Polish border got much attention; there is so much to accomplish domestically that foreign affairs will be a troubling distraction for the new national security team. I have seen a list of the military folks who are likely to be tapped to help manage the military transition, and they seem solid enough people. Most of the intelligence structure is housed or hosted by DoD, after all. In that regard, it is not surprising that non-military folks have the inside track on guiding the President’s parachute teams for my beloved intelligence community: John Gannon, Rand Beers, Tony Lake, Ambassador Hank Crumpton, and Joan Dempsey. John was head of the NIC, among other things, and staff director of the Homeland Security Committee on the Hill. Rand was NSC, Tony was the national security advisor, Hank was DO, and Joan is the smartest person on the construction of the budget that funds all the diverse activities of the shadow world. In that context, it is more than a little ironic that the outgoing Administration spent most of its efforts in the last eight years radically expanding the power of the executive branch, only to turn the keys to it over to their worst nightmare. There will be a bleak and fevered landscape confronting the new Administration, and I would be happy to help them if they need some minor functionary. I would not blame them if the National Security and Intelligence Community are asked to pay at least their “fair share” of the tab for the big bail out. This is a cyclic town, after all, and I have been through the Clinton transition that asked the same. This is likely to be a cold, cold Holiday retail season, though of course that contains some understandable contradictions. Sales at high-end luxury stores are way off. Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club are doing all right. It is not that everyone is hurting; it just appears that conspicuous consumption is out of fashion this season. The Gay wedding industry has been seriously hurt. Sales of handguns, rifles and ammunition have surged. Copyright 2008 Vic Socotra |