Vic Socotra

01 February 2009

I Got You, Babe

(Sonny and Cher look-alikes, on simulated magazine devoted to analog broadcast transmission)

Cher: They say we're young and we don't know
We won't find out until we grow
Sonny: Well I don't know if all that's true
'Cause you got me, and baby I got you…

I heard the song on the oldies channel, in the dark, and sat bolt upright. The song was there again, fresh and new, though Sonny is long in his grave after being a Congressman, for God's sake, and Cher is starting to look like Eva Peron in her glass coffin. I shook my head to clear it and looked at the clock-radio. It is the 1st of the shortest month, the eve of Candlemas. I made a note to ensure that I got all the candles blessed for the coming ecclesiastic year, or in case the ice storms shut us down as hard as Tennessee.

It is easier for the pagans. They are out there are celebrating the cross quarter holiday and Greater Sabbat, They call it “Imbolc,” the day that marks the center point of the dark half of the year, and starts the festival of the Maiden, the magical transformation of the old crone of winter to the dewy young girl of Spring.

That is generally in keeping with the traditions of the solid German immigrants who came to Pennsylvania in the 19th century. The Germans have been doing this for thousands of years, back before the Little /Ice Age, when the tribes gathered on the banks of the frozen rivers and glowered at the Roman troops who sought, vainly in the end, to protect the borders of the civilized world.

The Germans looked for shadows under bears and badgers, both surly species, and the proximity for accurate readings could be hazardous to the health of the holy. Lacking the appropriate wildlife, the modern tradition has become joined with the Groundhog, who shares with his more vicious cousins a propensity to sleep late in the winter.

Up in Punxutawney, the festival of the Groundhog is well underway. They are going to show the Bill Murray Film tonight, after the game is over, and there will be revelry and a lot of beer all through the day. I love that Sonny and Cher song that comes on Bill’s radio, every morning, until the day he finally gets it right.

It is also the Super Bowl, and among and between the orthodox and pagan festivals, I chose to observe it in the best traditions of both. Four quarters in the year, cross quarter holiday, four quarters in the game. Plenty of alcohol.
No coincidence, I think.

For this reason many people chose this day to bless seeds and consecrate agricultural tools; in the same spirit, Imbolc has always been a time for taking the first pro-active steps toward new beginnings. It is just like what is happening on the other side of the frozen Potomac from Big Pink.

It I have a tendency to peer anxiously in that direction like a Roman centurion, it is only appropriate. One should consider new beginnings in the depths of winter, and whether the government can fashion a rapid and efficient economic stimulus package. That is not what the campaign was about, sort of like bolting a Christian festival on top of an ancient pagan rite.

We elected the new Administration to do something, but there is no fundamental agreement on what it is. The Democratic base is expecting something big in the way of change. The Republicans are uneasily hoping for a Keynsian stimulus that will bring back prosperity without it.
For now, the Administration asserts that it can do both.

What we are going to start with is a flood of long-deferred reforms that never had enough votes to pass in more placid times. Transformative projects such as national broadband access, green energy programs, comprehensive health reform, all those critical issues are on the table.

Like the TV ads, though, you know they are about to say the magic words: “But wait, there’s more!”

FDR declared a bank holiday in his first hundred days to stop the disastrous run on the financial institutions. Yesterday, President Obama promised in his weekly radio address that he would shortly be issuing a “a new strategy for reviving our financial system that gets credit flowing to businesses and families.”

Five will get you ten that includes nationalizing the banks, which is more than a bit breathtaking. I can’t tell you if that is good or bad, and whether or not the consequences are worth the price of the medicine. What is contained in the stimulus plan goes far beyond anything intended to save jobs. It is pent up demand for social change, the majorities are now in place, and the season and the climate align. It will lock in permanent increases in deficit spending, piled atop the dollars obligated to the global war on the jihadis.

I can’t tell you if that is good or bad, though private behavior that mirrors what the government has been up to would land you in jail.

Of course, I am not economist, and I would remind you that Maynard Keynes was immensely frustrated with FDR because he did not spend enough.

It would seem that a rational way to approach this is to separate the short-term economic stimulus from the broader social agenda. The one would be to act swiftly to get people back to work, the other would be to make fundamental changes to society. The one is necessary, and the other might be worth some discussion, rather than balling them up together.

FDR had to finance the New Deal right here in America. The Administration is betting that the Chinese and the rest of the world will continue to invest in our debt. Maybe that will happen.

As I have often said, this is very complex, and common sense doesn’t seem to have much of a role in it. We are going to live with the consequences, intended and otherwise, for an awfully long time. What did they used to say on TV?

“You’ll look at it, you’ll like it, you’ll take your time paying for it.”

I’m going to guess that national security is going to have to compete with perfectly worthy social programs and not do that well, just for starters. But what the hell. Something needs to be done, and we have elected people to do exactly that. It’s Imbolc.

Elsewhere, things are much more clear. Punxutawney Phil will be presented to the heavens at first light tomorrow to render the verdict on whether or not there will be more weeks of winter. That will be at approximately 7:25 am. No alcoholic beverages or illegal substances are permitted on Gobbler’s Knob, the site of the ritual.

Cher: They say our love won't pay the rent
Before it's earned, our money's all been spent
Sonny: I guess that's so, we don't have a pot
But at least I'm sure of all the things we got

Sonny: Babe
BOTH: I got you babe
I got you babe

Cher: Don't let them say your hair's too long
'Cause I don't care, with you I can't go wrong
Sonny: Then put your little hand in mine
There ain't no hill or mountain we can't climb,
Babe

Both: I got you, babe.

If you happen to be up in Pennsylvania, the gates to the Knob open at 3:00 AM. The folks there ask that you please dress for the weather. I’m going to do the same, right here, and stay in bed where it is safe.

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