Vic Socotra

05 April 2009

What Goes Up

(South Koreans watch coverage of the rocket launch. New York Times photo)

It is entirely possible that a little metal sphere is whizzing around the earth broadcasting tinny martial music about the greatness of the Dear Leader this morning. Even if it is not, some people will claim that it is. I do not have the capability to receive it, if it is there, though I am reviewing my options for relocating downstate, away from potential blast.

I took a splendid drive in the early Spring sunshine, down to Culpepper and then north and west to Sperryville, in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains. It is lovely country, far away from any place someone would care to drop a rocket payload.

If it is, I will have to wait for the Wizards who monitor the skies to tell us if something with an orbital periodacy of 104 minutes has joined the constellation of space junk that circles the planet.

The North Koreans call what they have done the Kwangmyongsong-2, or the second in the Lodestar rocket program. It is a clever reference to the wisdom of the Dear Leader, Lodestar of the Party, and naturally enough, the rest of the sensible world calls it Taepodong.

This is all very complicated on the one hand, and less so on the other.

The Notice to Aviation and Mariners (NOTAM) issued by the North Koreans indicated that the first stage would come down in the Sea of Japan, and the second somewhere in the vast Pacific. The Japanese and Americans dispatched some Aegis Cruisers to be on station just in case the junk went awry and threatened the island of Honshu.

It is not clear to me exactly what the consequences of that might be; I think it is easier to shoot these things down in the boost phase, when they are not moving that fast. Shooting at an inert chuck of metal that is coming down already is thoroughly problematic; shooting at something still going up increases the probability that it will fall short. In your face.

It is all still coming down, only in more pieces.

The Northerners launched whatever it was at 11:30 AM, their time, which was about the time I was wandering off to bed, still tingling with the victory of the Michigan State Spartans.

They beat the University of Connecticut in the Battle for Detroit, the semi-finals of the NCAA March Madness Tournament, and as I turned out the lights, it appeared that the Tarheels were doing the same thing to Villanova in the second event on the card.

So at that point someone mashed the button and up it went, and the Americans and Japanese declined to shoot it down. The first stage came down as advertised and the second apparently splashed into the Pacific on time.

As of the time I am mashing the button on my end, the US NORTHERN COMMAND, responsible for these sorts of things, is saying that the last two stages of the rocket fell into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload.

According to the Command website, "No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan.”

That is well and good, but the President had a speech to give in the morning, his time, in Prague, in the shadow of the ancient castle. He used the opportunity to urge for the elimination of nuclear weapons.

I am generally in favor of that proposition, though I am curious about the concept of disarmament in the face of those who are arming themselves with horror. I am all for plowshares, but I would prefer to keep a few sharp swords in the inventory, you know?

The unilateral disarmament concept requires trust, which is a commodity in short supply north of the Imjin River. As I said, there is more and less to this than one would think, and my suspicion is that the level of hysteria about all of yesterday’s events are unwarranted.

To simplify things, and put them in context, the missile launch and the NCAA tournament are both pleas for help.

Detroit needs it right now, and the Spartans are providing some needed succor for a state ravaged by the economic melt-down.

The North Koreans are likewise crying out to the new Administration that they are people not to be trifled with, and should be accorded the rights and privileges of a nuclear power with the capability to deliver weapons anywhere on the planet.

Of course, that is absurd. Putting a tiny transmitter in orbit is something very different than launching a nuclear warhead. There are many factors that go into that capability, none of which the North has demonstrated. The weapon has to be crafted into a warhead that light-weight and streamlined. It has to be proof against the ravages of re-entry, and capable of being directed to something more specific than a general landmass.

It also has to be reliable, which is still a question mark on the whole North Korean nuclear capability, and all the more so if this launch was another dud.

Which is not to say that the DPRK having enough enriched nuclear material for as many as five weapons is not a subject of concern. But a rocket that takes weeks to assemble married with a weapon that may or may not work is not enough to panic about next week.

I’ll save my reserves of adrenaline for Monday night, and the Men’s finals, but reserve the panic for what comes after. That is why some of the real property down state is looking sort of attractive.

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