10 May 2008
 
Bugs in the Rug 

 
I am not xenophobe, nor a conspiracy nut, though of course I love a good yarn. We all do. I’d prefer to think about fantastic stories this morning, though work, and some unpleasant truths intervene. For a moment I’d like to contemplate the soaring beauty of the human spirit in all its manifestations.
 
I admire the elements of fine art, and have an eye for its practical application. That is why my floors are covered by the intricate patterns created on the looms of Isfahan and Herez. Some of the colors and designs are bold and straightforward. Others are subtle, the designs evoked by hundreds of tiny knots invisible to the eye.
 
I have the greatest respect for what the Iranians have managed to weave together. In the days of its greatest power, the empire of Great Britain could deploy power to virtually any place on the globe. The American military can do so today with unprecedented speed and lethality. Both highly-capable systems marked the zenith of technology in their times. Neither was particularly reliant on the support of others to demonstrate their power.
 
There were times when Persia had the same capability, either through the marching armies of Xerxes or through the commercial export of highly desirable products. The bulk of Oriental rugs sold worldwide from the end of the Ottoman Empire to the 1950s came from Persia/Iran. So many of them were sold that the terms "Persian rug" and "Oriental rug" became synonymous.
 
Of course they are not, any more than California Champagne is the real thing, bubbly on the palate or not.
 
"Persian-design rugs" can come from India, Pakistan or China, or elsewhere, just like workmanlike explosive devices or rockets.
 
"Persian rugs" come only from Iran. Traditionally, Iranian rugs sold in Europe and America are brokered by dealers of Iranian extraction who have the networks. My rugs were sold to me by a young man named Farzan from Tehran. He is, or was, a cultured  man with European-styled eye-ware, an advanced haircut and severe tailoring. He helped reinforced the belief that Iran produces the "best" Oriental rugs, and that he had the best possible deals on them.
 
I was in a unique position at the time, having recently negotiated for rugs in the bazaars of Delhi, and the prices Farzan offered were good, even with a significant markup to the middleman. I enjoyed the ritual of our negotiation, and the sweet tea he would offer to help through the sticker shock on some of the better pieces.
 
My tastes ran toward the bold coarsely-woven village types from Iran’s Kudish northwest. The places they were knotted were Tabriz, Herez and Hamadan. Farzan helped me to appreciate the more finely crafted offerings from Isfahan, Tabriz, Nain, and Qum. 
 
Iranian rug production "gentrified" under the rule of our great friend the Shah in the 1970's. Oil revenue produced a wealthy Iranian middle class and a demand for high quality hand-woven rugs. The Revolution and the seizure of the Embassy resulted in an embargo on rugs (among other things) that did not end until March of 2000. Prices on Iranian rugs peaked in the 1980s, when it seemed the Revolution would end rug exports altogether. In fact, prices have declined since then to the point where a reasonable quality Iranian rug purchased from a reliable dealer can represent very good value. Iran produces some great rugs today, but also many of average quality, and not a few junky and ugly ones.
 
Adequate quantities of Iranian rugs are once more available in bulk, though the type and quantity vary as US dealers reestablish connections with Persian sources that had been dormant for over 15 years.
 
The networks were not dormant, though, though without the participation of the Americans and British. During the period,  Iran constructed an elegant and low-cost asymmetric capability for worldwide delivery of goods and services. One of those services is revolution. Another is regime change.
 
Should the Pasdaran (IRGC), acting on the direction of the Supreme Leader, desire a car bomb to be detonated in Patpong Road in Thailand, tomorrow, say, at 1:30 pm, it has the means to do so with high confidence. Through surrogates and fellow travelers in the business, it could do the same in Detroit or Durham, North Carolina.
 
The Iranian state has agents in place, or surrogates beholding to it, who provide an means to project power that is extraordinary.
 
The Iranian Revolutionary leadership has concentrated on the shadow world of terror, which produces the biggest bang for the buck. The Katyusha rocket and the explosively formed projectile (EFP) are two classic examples of the export of national power through alternate means.
 
The basic technology was developed elsewhere, in Russia and the US. The techniques were applied to a key market segment, that being conflict conducted against states with advanced military capabilities in which cheapness of weapon and life had a distinct business case, and the Iranians, through the al Quds Force and other shadow groups, were happy to provide them.
 
British sources assert that some of the devices being used in Iraq are precision-made weapons with lathe-turned components. They are thought to have been constructed to design specifications in three factories located in north Tehran, in the industrial sections of Sattari, Sayad Shirazi and Shiroodi. The area is under the control of the Ministry of Defense, and specifically under the operational control of the al Quds (Jerusalem) Force.
 
An EFP is a precision weapon, not an ad-hoc assemblage of explosives like those first seen in days after major combat operations in Iraq were concluded and the war really began. An EFP defies classification as an “improvised explosive device,” since it is hardly improvisational in nature. The typical EFP is a cylindrical device shaped like a coffee can. The cylinder wall is much thicker, of course, and the container is filled more than half full with C4 or other explosive material. A concave copper plug is placed on one end and a detonator on the other.
 
The effectiveness of the device depends on the precision of the components. Since the EFP’s charge is highly linear in nature, placement and targeting are critical to mission success. At best effect, it would be placed in a location where target vehicles would be stopped. When the C4 is detonated, the energy forms the copper cap into a blob of molten copper that moves in a straight line at about 1,500 meters per second. The blob stays intact, and lethal, for a few hundred meters.
 
Iran is working through multiple surrogates, notably the Mahdi Army to smuggle the better quality EFPs into Iraq. They enter the country at crossing points near Amarah, the Iranian border city of Meran and the Shia-dominated area at Basra in southern Iraq.
 
Just as rugs come in a variety of qualities and grades, so do weapons. An EFP does not have to be crafted in a factory on sophisticated machinery. The concave copper discs can be cast with less precision in a neighborhood metal-shop, and the construction of a crude unguided missile is hardly rocket science.
 
It is often said that “Teaching a man to fish is said to be more effective than handing him a tuna sandwich.”  Since early 2005, Native Shia networks have emerged in Iraq who make the EFPs themselves. These are provided to Shiite militias, and the networks serve as middlemen in importing both devices and components from Iran. The middlemen are not aligned with any particular Shiite group, but simply meeting a business need.
 
Like a fine Isfahan rug, the pattern of the network invites the eye in whorls of complex and ordered whimsy. A militant and Revolutionary Shia state can coexist with ease with a militant Sunni Syria, for example, and simultaneously mentor and equip a terrorist Shia Hizballah in Lebanon and a Rejectionist Sunni Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
 
The 1983 attacks that claimed the lives of over 300 Americans in Beirut exemplify the intricate nature of the network. 241 Marines were killed at the Barracks, and my shipmate Wheels died with 59 others at the Embassy. Both attacks were joint operations of the Khomeinist Hizballah and the Marxist Arab Socialist Party, which in turn is connected to the Syrian intelligence services. The Syrian regime is Iran's closest ally, despite the fact that the Iranian mullahs regard the Alawites who control Damascus as heretics.
 
There are no Palestinian Shiites, yet Tehran has become the principal source of funding for radical Palestinian Sunni groups, notably Hamas, Islamic Jihad and half a dozen leftist-atheist mini-groups. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh cannot pray alongside his Iranian hosts during visits to Tehran. But when it comes to joining Khomeinist crowds in shouting "Death to America," he is right there.
 
It is not rocket science. It just takes a steady hand, and the ability to envision the overall impact of the pattern. The finished product reflects the subtlety and number of the knots.
 
Copyright 2008 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

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