22 July 2007

This Way Comes



I made my usual call to the folks late on Sunday. It had been a magnificent day at poolside at Big Pink, and the prospect of what is going to come to pass later this year was easy enough to put aside. I read a few hundred pages of the last Harry Potter book, and worked on my tan. The closing of the weekend brought on the minor melancholia that always attends the prospect of Monday morning.

In the Deathly Hallows finale to the series, things are dark. Old-You-Know-Who Lord is back, big time, and I do not know if he will triumph in the end. I don't think that evil will be victorious, since that doesn't seem right. The fiture is hard to see, though, and no one has spoiled the ending for me yet.

That is not an invitation, by the way. I could flip to the epilogue as easily as anyone, and only wish it worked that way in real life.

Mom commented on the gloom-and-doom contained in Something Wicked, my observation yesterday that there was a plot afoot, and there would be another major terrorist attack here in the United States in the next few months. I bristled a bit, since I do not consider an objective attempt to divine the intent of those who wish to do us harm as either gloomy business or one that spells doom, or at least not necessarily.

I think the Bad Guys are flush with optimism, since things seem to be going pretty well for them at the moment. Recruiting is up; they have a place for their training camps in Waziristan for those who need hands-on experience; they have adapted nicely to the new technical age and taken the internet to new places for training and propaganda dissemination.

The United States is bogged down in Iraq, tied to the situation like Gulliver by the Sunni Lilliputians, and despite the military successes of late, the war in the Congress bodes well for their ultimate success in ejecting the adversary from the region. Then they can start the bloodbath there in earnest, and establish a new sovereign enclave.

The war will impact America's ability to respond for years to come.

So, the time is right to take the offensive. I remember how I felt in the summer of 2001, and that was different. I felt we were drifting toward a great waterfall and few outside our narrow circle of Spooks seemed to be aware of the peril we faced.

We do now. I can feel it in some of the agencies where I call, the tempo of the meetings and rushing of the Government sedans through the crowded streets. We have put a cumbersome and massive new department in place to defeat the plots, and as the National Intelligence Estimate hopefully noted, we are better prepared than we were a few years ago. I have some cautious optimism on that front, but the strategic view is that there is such a vast pool of those willing to do us harm that sooner or later the Bad Guys will pull something off.

We might even foil the plot that is in progress now. I anticipate, with others, that they will use the tools that have been so effective at killing Americans in Iraq, conventional explosives carried by car or truck.

It seems counter-intuitive that they would wreck their progress by killing more of us in the heartland. The smart approach would be to allow the great adversary to stumble through some withdrawal from Iraq, and fumble through an election that might bring an Administration more amenable to their strategy.

It is possible, but I do not believe it. The tide is rising for them, and I believe they will act. They do not think the way we do.

I will have to take that up tomorrow, since it is important to understand who we are dealing with. I would like to do it now, but we all have to confront Monday. I have meetings on both sides of the River, but will not be attending them via public transportation, though I probably could get away with it this morning. I expect an afternoon event here in Washington the next time, so that it can be coordinated with other events during the waking day across this vast nation.

I will be avoiding crowds as we head toward Fall; particularly those places where security is lax and checkpoints are few.

A friend I trust implicitly has an appreciation for history, and he has worked hard to keep us safe. He is a little tired, as are all those who have labored in the shadows these last few years. He likes the literary reference, and as to this season's version of Macbeth, he had this to say:

“For those who live in crowded places, those who transit soft targets, a little extra alertness would be prudent.   A second glance.   Perchance there are three witches standing there, just at the edge of mortal vision.”

You know what the witches said, looking at one another:

"When shall we three meet again
In thunder, lightening or in rain?

When the hurleyburley's done,
When the battle's lost and won."

Tomorrow: A Matter of Identity

Copyright 2007 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra,com

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