11 September 2007

The Surge


The General and the Ambassador talked to the Congress yesterday, and today is the anniversary of the attacks. The Surge is going generally well, according to the duo. Thankfully the weather is crappy, and we have rain.

It helps me relax. I cannot experience a beautiful September day without thinking that something might fall out of the sky.

Some of the candidates made the early news cycle before the General spoke to give their response to things that had not happened yet. The ability of a politician to make pronouncements on things they have not seen or heard is not a new phenomenon. Almost everyone has something to say about the day, and that includes Osama bin Laden.

I was at a very nice party at a very nice house on Sunday. It was out in County, off the toll-road. A very nice new Mercedes SL decorated the driveway. The party was an end-of-summer affair, and dress was resort casual.

The sign on the front door said to go around back. I had not been to the house since it was new, and the owners have grown into it. In addition to the imposing façade, there is now a full-blown aquatic complex in the back, the pool done in fieldstone edging and the hot-tub done in well-laid stone.

The latest addition is a small colonnaded pool house, where hired help was passing out canapés and mixing drinks.

It was very nice, and it is gratifying to see old friends doing well. Along the way to the canapés, I chatted with a Turkish journalist who is very concerned about the survival of secular society, contextualized in the chill relations between America and Ankara these days.

Unlike Big Pink, my friend's pool remains open, since he is a private concern and does not require the importation of European lifeguards. I looked at his blue waters with envy.

Naturally, we talked about the General and his remarks, the outline of which were already well known, even to the politicians. There will be no abrupt withdrawal from Iraq. Disengagement will not come until the next Administration at the earliest, and that means the DoD Supplemental gravy-train will continue through the third quarter of next year, for sure, and likely beyond.

Even if there is a slow down in the general economy, our business sector should do pretty well. The intelligence budget is further insulated from reality.

The impact of the latest bin Laden tape was a topic of some vigorous discussion. It appears to herald another terror act at some time in the indeterminate future.

I took a canapé from the hired waiter. “His absurd invitation for America to convert to Islam actually is a very significant,” I said. “Should we refuse to turn to the True Faith, any act against us is justified in Osama's version of Islam, and his conscience is clean. The message was a mandatory prelude to action.”

An old spook I used to work with back in the day nodded. “The question is what it was. I am hearing that the German operation was the key to this. The tape was released with the expectation that a big bomb was going to go off at Ramstein right before the General testified to Congress. It was supposed to demonstrate that the surge had no effect on al Qaida's worldwide reach, and that we are just as vulnerable now as we were then.”

The small television in the corner showed the Redskins kicking a field-goal to win their first game in overtime.

“But we are not. NSA tipped off the Germans in time to disrupt the attack. They even were able to substitute denatured peroxide for the high potency stuff. This shows how vulnerable they are.”

The Redskins victory made everyone loosen up a bit.

“Do you think the change of beard color means something from a martial standpoint?” I asked. “Is this Osama's bin Laden's equivalent of   the "Game Face?"

We agreed that it meant something, but did not know what. The question hanging was whether or not the German operation, or the Danish one before that, was what the tape was about.

DNI McConnell said it was yesterday, as part of the parade of Administration officials who made public remarks on the eve of the anniversary. He said that the system was working. With the right laws and authorization we can defeat the terrorists.

Of course, we have to be right all the time, and they only have to keep trying. I drove back to town after the party under skies that were clouding over nicely. I think the German operation was intended to be a comment on the Surge, and it did not work. But I am equally confident that there is another major operation in the final planning process, and it is intended to happen right here.

The National Intelligence Estimate on al Qaida concluded that the organization is better able to plan and train than it was only a year ago. There are converts to Osama's brand of the faith that are willing to die for him, and I can only assume that they will.

In fact, I hope so. Just not in the way they intend.

In the meantime, I want to thank the folks at Fort Meade for disrupting the Ramstein Plot, and hope that they can stay on top of things. I was also happy that the weather forecast for the anniversary is for rain.

I have a hard time with beautiful Fall days. The nicer it is, the more I think something awful is going to happen.

Copyright 2007 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

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