09 February 2006

Chemicals

They are saying that there is snow out there, coming at us, a thick white blanket that will wrap up the weekend, seal us in Big Pink, and call for tons of chemicals to clear the streets.

Sometimes the prospect of snow is enough to just send me back to bed. We have only had one significant snowfall this year, and I was beginning to think that Spring might arrive without another. It means an early trip to the supermarket, for bread and eggs, and the Class Six Store to ensure that there is enough vodka, a potent chemical in its own right.

I was thinking about chemicals and germs a lot over the last few weeks. I took chemicals of all manner to beat down the biological agents that were growing in my body, my conscious mind a helpless pawn in the battle between the wildly growing virus and my white cells.

So it came as no surprise, and no coincidence, that I wound up meeting with an Army general who is in charge of Chemical and Biological Defense. There are no coincidences in this town.

I had a chance to ask him about the Quadrennial Defense Review, the big four year examination of the Budget, the release of which is causing some great consternation in town.

The General is a straight shooter and fellow alumni of the Industrial College . We did the secret hand-shake, and I sighed to think how things work out. He is still doing things, and I am out asking questions about what is going on, hoping to drag a solution out of my briefcase, a sort of Willy Loman in the market of weapons of mass destruction.

The General said things were changing in the threat forecast. The half-trillion dollar defense budget is based on the likely need for capabilities, which, no kidding, is in turn based on a four-sector chart, broken into threat blocks that read "Irregular," "Catastrophic," "Traditional, and "Disruptive" in nature.

The General said the likely treat anticipated is migrating from the "Traditional," to "Irregular," which is why significant investment in chemical, biological and nuclear detection systems is so essential.

The General got the money, a lot of it, but how he got it is worth a stroll through the Wonderland of Washington. First, the guys at the Office of Management and Budget- those are Josh Bolton's wizards- have decreed that the planning assumptions for the national Economy is for stability. Planning assumptions are for stable unemployment (5%), declining size of deficits, improving balance of trade (except China ) and steady defense budgets.

I said those assumptions sound like hallucinations,since Congress has already announced that the President's FY-07 Budget is "Dead on Arrival" due to the number of non-defense programs identified for reduction to accommodate the costs of "The Long War."

“That is the new term for it?”

The General nodded. Secretary Rumsfeld was death on the term “Global War on Terror,” which he said was about as description as having a war on postal delivery- terror is a tactic, not a cause. The key was that OMB had to appear to maintain the glide-slope on deficit reductions, and the strategy is to shift the burden to the Congress on restoring cuts to civil programs, and thus make it complicit if the deficit reduction targets are not met, in view of the mid-year elections.

The General waved his hands, “Just politics. None of my business. I have a budget to execute and capabilities to deliver.”

“The costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan are still going to be off the books, right?" He nodded. The Long War is not included in the budget calculations.

Odd way to run a railroad, but that is what it is. The base DoD budget is expected to remain at a constant $440 Billion top-line for the foreseeable future, but even with that expectation of stability contains uncertainty.

The General indicated that it is important to recognize that the supplemental war appropriations do not cover the full cost of operations, and timing is critical. Delay in passage means that costs for R&D, Operations and capital equipment replacement are shipped to the base budget. Other external factors, including a $35 Billion Katrina "Tax" levied against the DoD budget make planning difficult.

Additionally, personnel costs are gobbling an increasing portion of the DoD budget. Personnel costs in the early 1990s consumed 25% of the overall total; with the requirements for increased bonus and incentive pay, that percentage as soared to over 40%

The General cleared his throat. “So, that is how we get to my slice of the pie. The Chem-Bio detection problem gets a hefty $1.6 Billion in FY-07, for a total of nearly $8 billion across the Future Years Defense Plan.

With Congressional earmarks last year, the General's effective budget was nearly $2 Billion. That is what got the General off track. He said the Administration is telling their components that when they are summoned to defend their parts of the Budget on the Hill, they are specifically to address Congressional adds. That is "Earmarks" inserted by Members are to be categorized as "Useful," "Maybe we can make it work," and "Pork."

He said that this formula over the past few years had successfully driven down the total amount of Congressional add-ons from $300 million to only $90 million in the FY-06 budget.

I told him I commended his efforts at budget responsibility, and I asked him what he intended to do with the money.

“We have to refurbish the labs at Fort Dietrich , which are falling apart. We intend to make the Fort the premier Bio-defense campus in the US Government. I'm going to fund improved methodologies for detection, and modeling and simulation against things like Avian Flu.”

“So that is a priority in Defense?”

“Yep. It all amounts to the same thing. Response to chemicals is a health issue.”

“Like improvised explosive devices is a health issue?”

“You bet. Explosives are just another kind of chemical.”

“That is incredible. You guys are into everything.”

“Well, you should see the interagency. I was meeting with the Postal Service, and they take this very seriously.”

“How do you mean?”

“Well,” said the General. “The Post Office is the only Agency, aside from the Senate, that has actually suffered a biological attack.”

I smiled grimly. “Have you had the flu yet this year, General?”

Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra