09 October 2006

Day of Discovery

The Day is here, and I am not talking about the Federal holiday that the government workers get to celebrate today. We saw Columbus Day coming, since it was right there on the calendar. It is a celebration of discovery and daring.

The Spooks have been talking about discovery and daring for a few weeks, but not about European navigators. They have been watching northeast Asia from space, and they saw things they did not like. There was activity at the prospective test site in North Korea.

There are signatures for this sort of thing, checklists, if you will. There was the presence of vehicles, digging equipment and evidence of excavation. Trained professionals know what to look for.

I did not feel the tremor before retiring, or at least noticed only the usual ones. It was a tranquil night and not till the small hours did I hear the whispery voices from England that North Korea had done it. They tested their infernal device in the eastern part of North Hamgyong province, adjacent to the territory of their good friends and ally, The people's Republic.

The circuits were closed and the thing blew at 10:35 a.m. local time.

Confirmation came from the Chinese, who probably felt it through the soles of their shoes, and the Australians noticed something, too. The U.S. Geological Survey detected a 4.2 tremor, which is not much, as these things go, perhaps the size of the bomb that took our Hiroshima.

National Security Advisor Steven Hadley informed the President of the discovery of the test shortly before ten o'clock PM, Washington time. Mr. Bush had no public statement, though Laura probably heard one.

Let's get one thing straight immediately. Blowing up a nuclear device does not necessarily give one a nuclear weapon. These little beauties are complex devices, and the thing at the bottom of the mineshaft was probably as crude as the first device that was detonated in 1945.

That occurred aboveground, in the fresh desert air in a remote section of the Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range, 230 miles south of Los Alamos, New Mexico.

The test was code-named "Trinity," for reasons best left to General Leslie Grove and Dr. Robert Oppenheimer. It is known as Trinity Flats now, and famous for a unique type of green glass called Trinitite, unique to the site. It is nearly pure silica, olivine and feldspar, formed from the effect of the blast on the sand.

Oppenheimer did not know what the device would do in practice, which is one advantage the North Koreans had.

All the Americans had were predictions, modeled with pencils on paper. There was a minority opinion in the Project that speculated that the blast might start a chain reaction in the upper atmosphere that would destroy the earth. The risk was considered acceptable, and after weeks of delay, the test went ahead as planned.

The device was suspended on a steel tower one hundred feet above ground, which is something the mature nuclear powers have learned not to do, except in the event of actual use. The blast exceeded expectations, and knocked some of the scientists flat on their butts.

So did the Korean blast, though metaphorically, of course. They have now made their statement, and presented their application to the club of mass destruction. They are certifiably the most erratic and quirky applicants, whose application had been regularly turned down by the Membership Committee.

The response is forming now, responding to the spreading seismic wave.

The Chinese are stung by the ingratitude. The Japanese are freaked at the proximity. The Taiwanese are curious, and perhaps will see an alternative to the drumbeats for unification across the Straits.

The Americans have said there would be “grave consequences,” though goodness knows what those might be beyond more sanctions.

The Iranians are doubtless watching with great interest as well, getting a free preview of whether the world will bluster and ultimately accommodate a new reality or do something rash.

Many questions remain. How many more of the devices are there? What is the intent of the regime, beyond simple self-preservation. It is unlikely that they can be placed on a missile, being too bulky and awkward. That is not to say that they could not be placed in a container and mailed to a friend overseas.

Next stop is undoubtedly some debate in the Security Council of the UN, and doubtless the Joint Staff is taking some plans down off the shelf for examination of courses of action.

It is a day of discover, after all.

Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

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