| 17 October 2006 The Home Stretch It is time to start thinking about what is going to happen in three weeks. I have been preoccupied with other issues, and I know the way you roll your eyes when I start yammering about the Federal Budget, or the Planning and Programming process in the Department of Defense. I sympathize, but this is a big deal. It is about having either Dennis Hastert or Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. We have three weeks for some new scandal or catastrophe to overcome us. It is just about time to start looking at weather patterns for gales and depressions, tropical and other, that could affect voter turn-out. This election is going to be taken as a referendum on the war, against terror and other, and of course all politics are still local. A guy in the office down at the Bus Station is running for the county council. He is running as a Republican, since he has no choice. The Democrats have the County wired, and no voice of opposition is permitted in the party. The issue is the annual car tax. The incumbants like the money. I just wrote the check to the local tax lady, and I am pissed about it, too. I see roadside ads for him. He looks tired at work, and almost everyone else looks irritated. We have people here who count Congressional races like beads on the Rosary. They are starting to get glassy eyed and twitch uncontrollably. Cynical Gerrymandering has made most of the seats in Congress a solid lock for whatever party sits in them. Still, there could be an insurrection when we march up to the ballot box. Or the touch-pad, if your polling place is equipped with those computer voting machines. I have my suspicions about those things, being a bit of a Luddite. We have them at the polling place in the basement of the Culpepper Gardens Assisted Living Facility. I helped tabulate the results in the last general election, opening the cases and removing the paper rolls. I trust them as far as I can throw them, which turns out to be all the way across the activity room. It is all electrons these days. The smart money says Republicans could lose twenty or thirty seats in the House, and maybe more. The Democrats only need fifteen to topple the House. Three are gone already: Arizona's 8th District is going to be vacant, and disgraced Mark Foley's Florida 16th and Tom Delay's Texas 22nd are going to go Democrat, regardless of how Republican the electorate might be. If only a dozen more swing, then the House leadership changes. It will all depend on how we sleep the night before. The War on Terror doesn't seem to be selling that well. I was amazed over the weekend to find that premium gas has come down nearly a buck a gallon. I know the President wants me to think more about that, and the generally good economy. Deviant congressmen are the issue, though, at least fifteen minutes ago. And the old saying holds that they are all deviants, except the one who represents you. With so little time to go, I wonder about the wild cards. The North Koreans seem to be working on another nuclear test, maybe to get it right this time. If so, the timing is crucial. Worse, the North is mad as a wet hen about the UN sanctions. They say inspection of shipping is an act of war. Artillery raining down on Seoul could affect how we wake up on Election Day. So could an act of terrorism, big or small. An old pal noted that two snipers with one rifle tied up Washington up in knots of fear for months. He is surprised something similar has not happened since. It still could. We have become so inured to the chaos in Iraq that this bloody month does not seem to be bad enough to change anyone's opinion. There is a lot of money that still remains to be spent, and a lot of mud yet to be hurled. But wait! Theres more! In the Senate, the Republicans seem to be teetering. Burns of Montana and Santorum of Pennsylvania are just about toe-tagged. Chaffee of Rhode Island is in a squeaker. DeWine of Ohio is mired in charges of institutional corruption. The races in Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia are virtual dead-heats. Minnesota, Washington state, and even Maryland could provide some stunning results. The Democrats only need to take six Senate seats to take control of that body, too. I was on a Congressional trip overseas in 1994 when the Republican Revolution ousted the Democrats. The reorganization that followed was breathtaking. There were forty years of cozy deals to be undone, and a lot of hubris to be carted away to the dump. This is likely to be just as spectacular. The circus wagons are coming around the last turn, headed for the home stretch. It is the greatest show on earth. Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra |