25 September 2006 Revealed Truth The threat of terrorism has increased because of the Iraq war, which has attracted foreign fighters. This is revealed truth, or at least revealed classified opinion. I was electrified Sunday when I heard all the talking heads analyzing a document they are not supposed to see. It is a huge story, even if it was months old. The Hill was all abuzz about it over the weekend, and even the first win by the Redskins could not take center stage. Jane Harman, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, was particularly outspoken on the document that she couldn't talk about. Of course she was referring to the National Intelligence Estimate on the War on Terror, which had information cut-off back in the first quarter of the year. Actual publication was in April, 2006. It would take more time than I have to comb through the misery and determine how bad things seemed to be at that particular moment, and then do a rapid assessment of my own for how things have gone since then. I have to base my conclusions on the media reports, and memory, which is worse. I think the world was paralyzed with the dramatic publication of some scribbled cartoons in Denmark, which caused global rioting, since according to believers they defamed the Prophet, PBUH Things looked grim then, if memory serves, but as I said, memory is faulty. The National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, is a curious product with a tortured background. Back in the old days, before the rise of the loonies, the NIE was essentially a policy document. It wasn't intended to provide a context for operational response; rather, it was supposed to assess the strategic landscape and support the policy-makers on how to formulate the plan for the future. It was a challenge to produce the document, whose shepherds where the mandarins at Langley, the National Intelligence Officers. They lived on Olympus, and dealt with broad brush on the facts. I would go and see them periodically on some small issues, and it was always humbling to be in a place where the real world did not seem to exist, and every one of the fifteen members of the Intelligence Community has an opportunity to vote on what was in the document. The 9/11 Commission was appalled at the process, which often took months and sometimes caused so much controversy that they could not be completed at all. It was through the NIE process that we were able to miss small issues like the collapse of the Soviet Union's economy. In order to streamline the process, the Commission recommended the establishment of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the drafting of NIE's that reflected the best and most likely assessment, not the consensus of all the players in the community. The old system did not work. I am not here to bash the ODNI, though members of the 9/11 Commission have been happy to do so. The formidable new bureaucracy that has been established has some very talented people, and they are striving to make things better. I understand that steps are now being taken, a year later, to remedy some of the more glaring problems. They are actually issuing badges to cleared personnel that are recognized across the agencies. It sounds absurd, but it is a real answer to a real problem. You must stand in an asphalt parking lot some time, missing a meeting, because your badge and government clearance are not good enough for another part of the same government. This process may all be happening slower than we would like, since we do not as a society appear to realize that we are really in a war for our way of life. I am encouraged that there is something in an NIE that is current and compelling enough to provoke discussion. If nothing else, that seems to be a change for the better. The Pope seems to have had an inkling of the immediacy of the crisis, and he met yesterday with a group of Islamists to start a dialogue. At issue, of course, are his remarks which quoted the words of a medieval Christian, whose city was about to be put to the sword. We were tailgating before the start of the football game Saturday. It was a pleasant afternoon. Flags were flying and the smell of barbeque hung over the parking lot. Children ran around chasing Nerf footballs, filled with the boundless energy of youth. We talked about the level of national discourse, which with the election approaching has sunk so low that anything more than a sound-byte is wasted. We talked a lot about what the Pope was trying to do. The consensus was that it was colossally ham-handed, even if well meaning, and opened up the parallel history of the Church. I protested that the message of the 14th century was not directed to the Arab Street, but rather to the Rues and Strasses of Europe. "What he was trying to say was that this has happened before, and he presented the words of one of the last leaders of the West in the East, before all the voices were silenced." I argued that the Pope seemed to know exactly what he was doing, and his subsequent apologies were faint, and carefully crafted. I concluded that this was a calculated opening gambit in an attempt to change the terms of the debate. Some agreed with me, and others in the group thought it was just idiotic to do something that would piss off the radicals. We did not talk about the NIE, since it was classified and we were in a parking lot. But we did agree that something else was going to happen, sooner or later, and it would be useful to be prepared for it when it comes. Maybe the NIE will help the policy-makers get ready for it. Of course, leaking the document now may have the consequence of changing who those policy-makers are after the election. That is the funny thing about revealed truth, you know? Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra |