| 13 October 2006
Rising Tide
The Nobel Committee threw a grenade and took a swipe at the world leadership. It was a strange year for the Wizards of Stockholm, you have to say. The prize for peace went to a micro-economist, and the prize for literature went to a Turk who threw his own grenade over the Armenian genocide.
Maybe they are trying to sabotage the expansion of the European Union and stop the march to the east.
Americans took all the scientific awards, which may be the high-water mark of the American Century, lapping over the levee and into this one.
The rising tide of engineering graduates in South and East Asia will ultimately overwhelm the legacy of the West, if current trends continue. Or at least of North America; the difficulty in acquiring visas and the indignity of travel to America is slowing the torrent of students who were attracted to the institutions of higher learning there.
The students that come are increasingly going home when they are done, reversing a trend almost four decades long.
It will have an impact over time, just as the balance of trade will, and the productivity of the Chinese. We would be as foolish as King Canute if we did not acknowledge it, as he commanded the tide not to rise.
But tides rise and fall. People are still rushing to this country, and there are 300 million Americans for the first time. The demographers say that blessed citizen, based on the odds, was a male baby of Hispanic ancestry born in Los Angeles.
The trick to manage this is to avoid hubris, where possible, keep our powder dry, and maintain a weather eye on the coming storm.
That is a little difficult with wars in progress, and the real threat of terrorists and the clear and present danger presented by the nuclear programs in states that have no love for us.
I believe in the future, since I am an American of my time. Tides run in the affairs of all peoples. I remember when Japan was a powerhouse, and not a geriatric ward. As I look at China, I see both the juggernaut of enterprise and the graying of its people. The one-child policy is now entering its third generation, and the culture-born disparity of preference for male babies is going to ripple out through the rest of this century.
The Chinese will have to watch their inclination to march down to the ocean and start yelling at the water.
I was at the Wafle Shop the other morning to talk to my pal. That is not a typo, and it is not the Waffle House downtown. The restaurant sits on a triangle of land at the north end of the newly fashionable Del Ray neighborhood. I don't know if there was a copyright issue with the sign, or just someone who put it up late in the day and didn't think about it.
Maybe it is supposed to rhyme with “falafel,” if you said it with a hard “a” sound. I don't know.
My pal is disconsolate and wanted to talk about the future. Waffles seem to cheer him up, and he had heard good things about the ones served here. I think he is hoping I can put him onto a job. He has some small kids and works for a venerable American company that is taking on water.
The corporate flags are still flying bravely, but there is some sort of foreign take-over in the works, and his government customers are leery of who the new company will be loyal to.
“I had an uncomfortable conversation with my boss last week. I am not sure that my job is there or not. He was headed out to play golf on a workday, and he has taken to wearing polo shirts under his sport jacket.” He speared a chunk of wafle and raised the fork to his lips.
“That is when I knew it was falling apart,” he said. “The dress code is the first thing to go.”
“Do you have any likely possibilities?” I asked. “Washington is a job market that is insulated from the rest of the world.”
“I'm not that worried,” he said, looking worried. “I'll find something. The question is knowing when to jump. The company won't tell us anything. Every month there are more empty desks. I just can't tell a prospective employer when I can start, since I will be leaving a lot of cash on the table if I quit. It is cat-and-mouse and I am the cheese.”
I pondered that metaphor, thankful that my life is well ordered.
“Well, maybe you just have to figure out a convenient time in the fiscal year to jump, and hope the tide has raised the lifeboats high enough that you don't get wet.”
“The problem is the mortgage. I really can't afford to miss a check. The wife will kick my ass.”
“Not that I know anything, but I would recommend a government job. They aren't going to go out of business any time soon. Or at least they will be the last. I would recommend getting one while they are still hiring. We are going to have a new Congress here, pretty quick, and then there are going to be two years of ugly hearings until the Presidential election. It is not going to be pretty. I recommend voting early and often.”
“I hear you on that. But living close-in means I am in a solidly democratic ward anyway. My vote isn't going to mean a thing. I may just as well wait and see what the tide brings in.”
“Your vote will still count in the Senate race, and you may as well vote against the car tax.” My pal nodded and swirled the last bit of wafle around in the pool of syrup on his plate. He raised it to his lips like it was part of his last meal.
“Don't wait,” I said. “Jump now. This isn't going to get any better until the tide turns again. I guarantee it will happen. Just look at the Detroit Tigers.”
Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
For those who have been anxiously waiting, the Pool Awards Committee has reported the Calendar 2006 Awards. Each category carries a cash value of over $20, payable in coupons.
2006 AWARDS:
Uncle Bill: Best Uncle
Vic- Last resident in the pool water
Montana-Last resident out of the pool gate
Ms Hamilton- Best Tan
LesBien- Most Guests
Strangest Guests: Katrina victims who smoke in the pool
Mrs. Hitler: Crabbiest
Ivan: Stasi-est Life Guard (in abstentia)
Worst Speedo: The Professor
Cutest Kid: Oliiiiivia
Best snorkle ogle: Our Pal from Sunrise
Best non-resident: The Girl from Clarendon
Best Dog: Mollie
Best Major Union: The Ironworkers of America
Close Window |