| 15 May 2006 The National Guard It eluded me last week, the significance of the stories in the press that indicated they are calling the National Guard home from Iraq. In 2004, the Guard and mobilized reserves were over half the fighting force on the ground there. Army sources indicated the Guard would largely be phased out of major combat responsibilities. The story went on to describe a debate in military circles about what role they Guard might play in future conflict. It is safe to say that the existing force is more experienced in real-world operations than any that has existed since the end of World War Two. There are other portents in the air, other dots to coonect. A Regular Army unit in Germany has been notified that it will not deploy to Iraq next summer. Something is happening. A friend of mine is in Baghdad for a year, and his task is to facilitate the turn-over to the Iraqis of responsibility for their own security. The U.S. presence in the Green Zone is to be reduced, and functions transferred to the sprawling new embassy compound adjacent to the capital, but not in the middle of it. in contrast, the drum-beat of bad news continued over the weekend, and we have almost become inured to it; seventy corpses were delivered to the morgue, most with evidence of torture or execution-style murder. A car bomb at a checkpoint on the airport road killed fourteen; two Shia shrines were attacked north of the capital. As far as the reporting is concerned, it is more of the same misery, and as the temperature rises, we will remain stuck in a quagmire that holds no prospect but defeat. It is curious that I do not hear the same dolorous tones from those that actually have been there. If we deployed battalions of journalists to any major American city to report from their hotels on the violence on the streets, we would be horrified. There is a level of violence that we accept here, since it is generally segregated by geography and class. Check the crime statistics. Over five hundred citizens were murdered in New York in 2004, the most recent year for which the FBI has collated data. The number is considered a victory in the fight against volent crime. In Detroit, a city whose population is an eighth of the Big Apple (and falling), nearly four hundred citizens were executed. As mark Twain obseerved, there are lies, damned lies and Statistcs. But by virtually every measure, things are getting better in Iraq. The per capita gross domestic product, measured in US dollars for last year is up 20%, and the trend appears to be continuing. Iraqis are increasingly reporting leads to the authorities on how to locate insurgents; actionable tips have increased measurably each month this year, to over 4,500 in March. Perhaps the most critical measurement is electrical output, which directly correlates to the misery index as summer and the air conditioning season approaches. It has almost returned to the pre-war level (at 3,958 megawatts) and is improving. Casualties to US and Iraqi forces have declined significantly. Polling numbers indicate this year that 64% of Iraqis say that the country was headed in the right direction, and 77% say that removing Saddam Hussein was the right thing to do. Iraqi Security Forces number 250,500 as of March of this year. There were none in 2002. So I am hoping we can support the emerging government and gradually- ever so gradually- edge to the sidelines. I think it is possible that we can pull this thing off, if we do not allow ourselves to be bludgeoned into believing that there is only bad news. After all, the National Guard is coming home. That is the interesting thing, and the connection to the stories last week. Mr. Bush is going on the air tonight from the Oval Office to talk to us about what he plans to do with some of them. The radio tells me he is expected to call for a significantly increased National Guard presence at the border. It is about time. If gas prices stay high, we will be forced to do something about the disastrous energy policy that lines the pockets of the terrorists while emptying our own. If we at last begin a concerted effort to wean ourselves off overseas oil, I think we will not be so compelled to insert ourselves into the affairs of others. But as to the Border, there is the other problem. President Fox was compelled to get on the phone to Washington last night. He talked to Mr. Bush for a half hour, expressing his concern about the National Guard deployments. Mr. Bush assured him that the presence of US troops on US soil really should not be a matter of concern to the Mexicans. I think it is mind boggling that insisting on legal immigration is controversial. A nation that cannot, or will not, control its own borders is not really a nation at all. The Mexicans reserve the right to escort unwelcome guests to the door; in fact, they are quite insistent about it. Our President is also going to outline several other proposals to seal the southern border, and even go after the people who hire illegals. I'm glad I had my floors repaired and plumbing done last year. I don't know if I will see my contractors again. Copyright 2006 Vic Socotra |