We looked around out on The Patio this morning and there were no lumps of steaming, unexplainable phenomena strewn about. The matter of the impeachment of DHS Secretary Mayorkas seems to have passed without event late yesterday. Senator Schumer, forthright Majority Leader, did not permit the matter to get to a “trial.”

This seems a little familiar, since something similar occurred a couple times in a previous Administration. We thought the Senate Rules dealing with such measures forwarded from the House required consideration. There is apparently a lot of “known to us stuff” that is rather situational in application.

Some say the Secretary has ignored US Code regarding Border apprehensions. He says there are only near a dozen million offenses, so everything is fine and secure.

That was not the only regional matter at issue, of course, nor even the one we understand to have a direct legal impact on the election. A former President- you know which one- has been- has been indicted in New York City in the big trial that criminalizes formerly expired and uncharged misdemeanors to multiple felonies in an attempt to alter the Fall election. We tried reding that sentence a couple times in an attempt to make sense of it.

For the former President’s part, he has been castigated for apparently nodding off during Jury Selection and then marching down the Manhattan Streetscape to visit the bodega of the shop-keeper assaulted by a street thug.

All the rest of that stuff on the slide? It too is happening. The most interesting has been discussion of what the Israelis might do to respond to the massive Iranian missile strike last Sunday. There have been reports that the White House has urged Jerusalem to relax and accept the victory on what has been termed a “failed” military operation. That is an arguable if flawed approach, which had been followed by some domestic disruption here in the United States with demonstrations in major cities on Monday, our Tax Day.

There was some pro-Hamas signage that accompanied the blockage of historic places like the Golden Gate Bridge, but part of the well-organized operation included cities world-wide and one just down the boulevard in Crystal City, Virginia.

The organization responsible for the latter calls themselves the “A15 Action” organization. The name of the group refers to action taken on 15 April all over. Apparently, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards organization is at least partly responsible for organization and funding of the A15 activities, which is almost as startling as the rocket attack the day before.

Large scale disruptions in thirty world cities were claimed, including several in America. It included traffic and commerce conducted by Iranians allied with Hamas are almost as curious as massive missile strikes on the only world state associated with the smallest of the three Faiths of their Books.

That brings us around to the question that left us stumped. The looks on the faces of The Salts around the circle on the Patio were muddled. We had thought the rocket assault threatened the outbreak of a potentially catastrophic regional conflict led by the geriatric Mullahs in Tehran.

Instead, it turns out the conflict is already well underway, happening in the next neighborhood to us here in Virginia. Along with Gaza. We are attempting to adjust to the idea that the regional conflict is already underway.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Ugh. We have to start with the disclaimer this morning. We have been waiting for the Israeli response to Iran’s startling weekend rocket assault. Part of the discussion echoed the mumbling on the other side of the River here in Your Nation’s Capital. Like many others, we are a little unclear as to who is responding to what in this emotional and kinetic matter. We will drill a bit deeper into that in a moment, but the Legal Section reminds us to be even-handed in our treatment of the players and issues, to respect religious integrity and the role of Directed Experts in World Affairs.

Is that enough to ensure this is intended as mild irony? It is not intended as a castigation of ancient religious figures. It is directed more at our ideas of the role of “Experts” and “Unintended Consequences.”

A certain cognitive bias is to be expected. We Salts are a small community of former experts in kinetic operations in a maritime context. Naturally, by training, we had lurched to the worst possible outcome when the word was flashing around about the massive size of the Iranian rocket assault. What was the likely response?

See? Three paragraphs into it and we have not even mentioned the first part while starting to consider the third or fourth path of the branches and sequels that spill out in the “consequences phase. Here is what struck the members of the circle, which includes members who by happenstance had once been blessed by the Holy Father in Rome.

That interjected thoughts of the resolution of today’s crisis response with some previous ones of even greater magnitude. In our shared history, the devastating impact of the nuclear demonstration in Japan in 1945 had the same sort of social impact as the awful scourge of another weapon of mass destruction:

The Black Death was the event most analogous in horror. It was a plague pandemic that erupted in Europe in the Mid-14th century and killed as many as 50 million people, or nearly half the population of the continent.

That is where we came to the modest revelation about the role of messaging and Experts in one of the most significant events in European history. The plague created religious, social and economic upheavals and changed the course of European history.

The discussion about who has atomic weapons today and who may be close to having them is a sidebar to the startling story that emerged with some cursory research. The outbreak of the plague was accompanied with pleas for an answer, a solution that could come only from Heaven. The response is what led directly to the second and even deadlier outbreak.

In the context of both times, then and now, the response is analogous. In the Dark Ages, the ghastly disease was assumed to have an origin in the wrath of the Almighty. Accordingly, the Christian Primate in Rome’s views were considered directly appropriate. Pope Gregory the 14th took steps to call his Experts together and provide solutions that would blunt the anger of Heaven.

The Experts took the logical approach. The felines that roamed the houses and homes of Europe were known to be familiars of the Anti-Christ and thus should be eliminated as a matter of Public Health. A campaign was begun against the cats which had some success.

That success was measured mostly in the surge of the Yersinia pestis virus which was actually carried by rodents, notably the rats whose presence was less visible than that of the felines who managed their population.

We could count several similarities in progress today. A desire to “save the planet” could actually lower the percentage of an atmospheric trace gas necessary for photosynthesis and ife. Striking nuclear installations in any nation of the Middle East, regardless of malfeasance, could prompt a use-or-lose scenario.

The Experts once recommended a war on Cats to save civilization, only to produce a dramatic upsurge in the population of rats. That will all work itself out as our government encourages the Israelis to relax after an assault by hundreds of explosive devices.

It only makes sense, right?

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra

www.vicsocotra.com

We were bitching generally about the fact that last Monday was a day of note, and it wasn’t because it was Tax Day. There was some distraction on that matter, since there appeared to be an imminent spike of activity in the Israeli response to the Iranian rocket strike over the weekend.

It is deeper and still a little mystifying. After the morning flurry of information exchange, we saw a short answer to one of the resulting questions hanging out there. The events of Monday- April 15- were coordinated across State and International borders. The signs and placards in dozens of American cities were professionally rendered and the participants all had a certain fashion commonality and hairstyles. So, who is this new gang?

Who is responsible for the coordinated inter-state highway and commercial disruptions? The overhead for travel, feeding and lodging for the demonstrators? We have observed the arrival of a series of them lately with similar if disparate goals. “BLM,” of course, and “Antifa,” a group with less melanin in their skin but more outrage agains the fascist they claim to be protesting.

We heard this morning. The “A15 Action Group.” is claiming credit for something that is already against the law- disrupting public transportation- but which should be made really against enhanced statutory enforcement.

Here is how some of the accompanying rhetoric sounded: “Pro-Palestinian activists in 30 cities across four continents disrupted the global economy on April 15 in an attempt to destroy the Jewish state.” The announcement came from the anonymous- or at least previously anonymous- A15 Action Group.

Like Antifa and BLM, the group may be unknown but the message is one of long standing. There is much more to learn about precisely to what the name refers. Is it the date? It was Tax Day here in the US, but that would seem to be of little interest on three other continents. This one seemed more a RICO-inspired demonstration designed to cause national disruption to travel, communications and the supply chains. The coordinated nature of the activity is clearly illegal under both federal and local statutes.

We doubtless will be hearing more about the “A5 Action” reference. But the question is, “Has the FBI been so weaponized that it is no longer capable of telling their official myths of “white and evangelical terror” and ignore what is happening in their laps?

It’s not clear who was behind the A15 initiative. The group’s public face is new. It only registered its website on March 22 with an anonymous email address hosted by a Swiss service provider that guarantees privacy. That is only another layer in the public public onion. Drilling down, we find an organization called th, Community Justice Exchange, a project of the antisemitic Tides Foundation. Funding for that group, like others devoted to “social justice” derives significant funding from billionaire George Soros’s Open Society Foundation. That group provides unattributed support to A15 Action’s “Bail & Legal Defense Fund.”

The thicket of organizations is intended to be interactionable. The Soros group has also been responsible for funding the election campaigns of District Attorneys across the land who are committed to non-prosecution of urban criminal activities.

Some pundits say that ‘A15’ may just be a rubric for a struggle larger than the anti-Israel movement. Mr. David Friedman is a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, appointed by President Trump in 2016. He posted to X his opinion that “the planned April 15 riots had “nothing to do with Israel or the Palestinians since most of the protesters are entirely ignorant of those issues.”

So, we now have a national, professionally-funded and adaptive organization that claims the ability to conduct planned and coordinated operations across the country and the world. Will A15 become the next Antifa-syle radical organization, or is it just a Momentary manifestation of something larger?

I guess we will see.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

(NewYork City District Attorney Alvin Bragg makes a point about his Drag. Image AP)

In all the other excitement, this important bit of the chaos was sidelined as the new week opened. It was not hard to peel the layers back in urgency, since it began with the threat of regional war in the Middle East.

Throw Tax Day atop the pile of necessary action, the other less-urgent developments are still unfolding in their parts of what has inelegantly been described as the ‘Kalorama Klown Show.’

It is an ironic but fitting term. The first “K-Word” in the phrase refers to a DC neighborhood near the White House that is filled with distinguished estates overlooking Rock Creek Park. It is home to some of DC’s chicest addresses, ranging from diplomatic homes and embassies to Mediterranean, Colonial and Georgian-revival mansions.

Like the residents of those grand homes, we were on edge last night. Word was that the Israelis were marshalling forces to respond to the big Iranian missile attack. The dimensions of the response were unclear, and on rising this morning, a quick scan of the ‘news’ determined nothing happened in the hours of darkness.

So, maybe, there is momentary peace on that front this morning, though of course events are still unfolding. That limited good news may be as good as it gets., since the next layers of national malaise are colliding with extraordinary local developments.

What might those be? The one on top is the remarkable legal struggle over the players in this latest edition of our electoral cycle. It is historic in scope, since it appears to be the work of a city District Attorney to functionally insert his office into a national election.

Alvin Bragg is the name of the individual at the heart of it. part of a coordinated legal campaign of interlocking local actions with the direct intent of interfering with a national campaign.

There has been a series of laughable legal litigations, of which this current “Hush Money” case is nothing short of sordid and intended to take the accused off his campaign plan. Here on The Patio, we call this part of the election cycle “The Bragg Drag.

Bragg is running one of four deliberately-coordinated actions by local civic officials against participants in national- hell, international- affairs. Three others have faltered. This one has not, at least not yet.

In brief, DJT became the first former U.S. President to stand criminal trial on Monday when he appeared in a local Manhattan court. He is facing charges stemming from a payment to a porn star about an alleged relationship never proven nor brought to trial. Instead, it appears to be a case of extortion amicably settled with private funds on the eve of an election.

These perfectly legal actions are called “Non-disclosure Agreements,” or “NDAs,” for short. We took a Patio Poll, and most of us have signed a variety of them in the course of our careers. Were any illegal? Not according to our Legal Section, but that is simply where the money and litigation stream begins these days.

General Mike Flynn, once our Director at the Defense Intelligence Agency and later National Security Advisor to President Trump could walk us through how the legacy of a distinguished career turned into a defense against bankruptcy and public humiliation. The resources of a single man and his family against the unlimited legal assets of the most powerful nation on earth.

A documentary film has been released about the matter, and reports are that it is ranked Number One on Amazon sales in this unsettled week. We hope the General can get enough cash to save his mortgage- or marriage, but it demonstrates how this new system of justice is working.

That can be contained in a one-sentence summary: “A New York DA has circumvented an expired local misdemeanor offense by conflating it with uncharged Federal offenses clearly beyond his jurisdiction and wildly inflated to become charges of more than three dozen felony offenses, all of which appear to have been coordinated with the White House.”
All that used to be something considered to be “against the law.” But we no longer know exactly what that is. Trump has been threatened with jail time if he is not in the courtroom each day for a proceeding that could go on through the end of May or early June. You can imagine the impact on a busy campaign schedule.

Will it provide justice? There was laughter around the circle on the Patio. That aspect is not part of what the Kalorama show is about. So, on this day we will put it back in the scandal stack and see how it plays out through this coming chaotic summer.

For planning, there is speculation that a properly selected jury in this matter could produce a guilty verdict in which the Judge could direct immediate confinement, even if the verdict is likely to be immediately overturned on appeal. You can imagine the power contained in the images of that. And since images, not the law, are what is at stake, it only adds to the entertainment of the circus in progress. We will try to keep you posted!

– Vic

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

(We are pretty sure the 87,000 new IRS employees will be concerned with the 1% on this Tax Day, right? Image Getty)

There is some success to report this Tax Day. We submitted a hefty check to the people at the IRS a week or two ago, and we hope it flies. One thing we have experienced to mild surprise is the complexity of preparation. For several decades, there was only the requirement find the W2 and a bank statement for interest plus the mortgage totals to deduct.

Not so much anymore. There are several sources of assorted income and a stack of disparate medical expense that jumble all together in an unruly stack. We will see how this year’s adventure goes. But there is a dramatic background to the issues with which we have personal responsibility. So, balancing success is something else.

Failures? The Iranian missile attack against Israel. US international leadership, since the word “Don’t,” even if uttered gravely, seems to have no effect.

There is more, of course. Things this morning reflect messaging turbulence. The initial reports about the stunning success of the Iron Dome missile defense system were part of the messaging. Reports this morning though include the note that many of the Iranian barrage failed on launch. So, readiness and capability is in the spotlight, and cost of the defensive response, estimated at a billion dollars.

Those are just a couple of the complications on what this means, and what it specifically means next.

America’s appeasement of Iran, seems to finally been revealed as folly. The decision of the gerontologic Religious leaders in Tehran to directly attack Israel from Iranian territory is huge. It marks both strategic and basic change in regime tactics. The region’s political, diplomatic and security calculation is in motion.

Some sources insist the news is not so much that things may lurch into a regional crisis. They suggest that is already well in progress with the killing of senior Iranian commanders in Syria. Iran has always responded through proxies. This time it was directly and massively from Iran itself.

But that was yesterday’s opinion. This morning it is closer to “why did the Iranians launch an attack that was doomed to fail and achieve no military advantage. Only the intent of the message is now open to question for what is next.

Why such a dramatic change? Is it about a transition in Iranian leadership with more restive Persian public? Is it an assertion of regional leadership that cannot be sustained? The U.S. is telling Israel to “accept the victory,” and maybe it can be played that way. Or not.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

This is new and interesting. The long flight time of the weapons over a significant distance makes information about them a component of the operation. A direct kinetic strike from a sovereign state is a different sort of beast than those that have roamed the neighborhood for decades. Just past dinner time here- in the early zulu hours out there. There is some commentary about the size and duration of the attack and what it means in escalation and in response.

The dynamics are unclear. Do the Mullahs consider this only a retaliation for the Israeli strike on the IRGC in Syria? Are there only relatively conventional small payloads from UAV’s? A test or demonstration on saturation of Israeli air defenses? Could or will there be some coordination by local proxies?

There is some comment that this may be less than the initial shock, and clearly retaliation is only now being calculated. And what exactly is next?

– Vic

We were immersed in a last review of the new book yesterday. It drew us back to some old wanderings in some of the areas in conflict today. We smiled when we recalled that stroll across the Temple Mount and the scowls of armed young men around the Dome of the Rock. The hiss of eager Palestinian vendors issued in welcome from behind shuttered shops to do business despite the ban on trade by local insurgents.

They were people trying to get by, and we remember the discord behind the walls.

Yesterday, we were occupied in a review of those old events in a new context. Since 1979, we have had occasionally personal relations with the state of Iran. The news that came in the late afternoon was the biggest in all the years we have followed the issue.

First heard was that the President had been called back from Delaware to attend the crisis. Some 50 drone missiles had been launched from Iran toward Israel. Later estimates increased that number to hundreds.

Hearing it was a shock. It was the first such unambiguous attack from a regional state against another.

Of course things are a little blurry since proxy warfare has become common for deniability. Hamas aggression started the current conflict in Gaza, right? Israel directly struck Iran’s generals in Syria. Was this the start of a massive response to that event or something else?

The bottle of single-malt had been around various points in the circle a few times. Reports were that the Israelis were shooting down some of the incoming drones. There was no other apparent coordinated activity, and after the initial shock, it appeared the world would not end last night. The remnant of the bottle was left with the interns and the Salts went to bed.

This morning started with sunshine and a report left in large format on a tablet device next to an empty bottle on the Porch. It said the Israeli air defenses, supported by British and American air forces had destroyed 99% on the incoming drones and the only reported casualty was an Arab-Israeli girl.

Impact was characterized as “token,” which is where analysis begins today about what is next for tomorrow. It is a new landscape on an old problem. This attack seems to meet the criteria of an “act of war.”

What comes next will be how the players interact on a new and more intense landscape. Iran is making a statement. Now the question is what sort of retort is going to come.

The Iranians already set their side of the table on that. The chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces said that while this weekend’s drone and missile attacks have ended, his “regime will stage a “much larger” attack if Israel launches a counterstrike and target U.S. bases in the region.”
It could be that this attack was sufficient to satisfy Tehran’s need for response to the attack in Syria.

Miscalculation on that could mean general war. The bottle on the Patio table may be empty, but thankfully liquor sales on Sunday have been restored and we intend to be ready for what is coming next.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra

www.vicsocotra.com

This Spring day dawned with a reminder of seasonal malice. The breeze is brisk out on The Patio, the skies close and gray, denying the welcome warmth that appeared- briefly- in a week filled with chaos, foreign and domestic. The picture above is from a pal in a square state as a reminder of past places of unearthly beauty to balance some of the ugliness abroad in our world.

As an example? We were working on the flash point de jour, which is Iran, her proxy entities adjoining Isrel, and mutterings of nuclear issues. The use of a nuclear weapon has been a troubling topic of discussion since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A hundred weeks into that conflict, there is grinding uncertainty. The topic of immediate concern is the one to the south. The situation is depicted in garbled reporting. The immediate issue is whether the United States will permit Israel to eliminate the Hamas leadership that sparked this chapter of an ancient conflict.

The headlines this morning report Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy to the north of Israel is preparing an estimated 100 drones to strike Israel. It is a milestone in that conflict. There will be more on that matter, and shortly.

Being old timers, we were looking at the space between defeat on one of the parties and the use of WMD. We will save that for the new book in which we are attempting to follow the events of these pivotal times. Instead, we wissh to provide an exciting update untinged with terror or tragedy.

The next release from Socotra House has been percolating for several months. Our superb production team produced the “print interior” text in full final with an ominous deadline. They further threaten to add the photographs from the manuscript submission once a final review is complete. This is a milestone in the publishing process, and a gratifying one.

The subject title is “A little Traveling music.” It contains other and older milestones, like the decision to abandon our ally The Shah of Iran and permit the establishment of the theocratic state in Tehran. Then the Socotra house engagement with that crisis in 1979 and all that has followed. That it should be ready to blow apart again this morning marks another milestone.

There is more to come on that, but for this morning we will let the marvelous image of peace in a place of conflict suffice. We will review the trips to Haiti, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam and Cuba contained in the Final Proof of the new book and seal the deal on that project. Which of course we will then shamelessly flack. It is another milestone of sorts.

There will be much more to come, and many milestones to pass. Have a great weekend!

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

That was a week, wasn’t it? We attempted to deal with some current affairs, ones that represent our chaotic present’s collision with the legacy of vivid recollections of our shared past. Just naming some of them swirled memory and emotion. Section 702 is an ongoing issue that combines the complexity of technical collection of information with the traditional protection of privacy that now seems obsolete. Then there was the first-ever impeachment proceedings of a sitting Cabinet Secretary. Or the passing of a gifted athlete with a mixed legacy, a man whose “slow speed chase” was etched into public consciousness along with a pair of gloves that no longer fit. I was walking on the mess decks of a Navy ship when the verdict in that trial was announced, and the palpable reaction of the crew having lunch was a remarkable thing.

In the here-and-now there was international events that collided with the personal. The NATO conference coming to DC this July may attract trouble. It could range from inconvenience on the streets to something more dramatic and kinetic. And on a more intimate level, there was a summons to the office of Cardiovascular Surgeon who had conducted the six hour assault on one of our limbs two weeks ago.

All hail Dr. Rhee, master of the vascular!

There is no need to delve into that too deeply, or display the images of the two dozen stainless steel staples that held part of our world together on a left leg. The actual appointment was much anticipated since the results had been unknown. It was fine. The actual highlight was not medical in nature, but related to fashion.

The image that begins this brief daily episode includes the fabric footwear of patient and practitioner. That discussion occupied nearly as much time as the post-op medical examination. And with success in the Post Op physiology, the drama of color and pattern adapted to fashion was as gratifying as the declaration of healing.

In the balance of the rest of the weekly events, health and good socks were some of the better news!

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com