A major milestone is passed- a joyful cross-country adventure to attend a marvelous wedding. It signified so much on so many levels, so much emotion. On the purely personal level, it was an exercise in putting the pandemic behind us. Finally. A celebration of life and creation of a new family. The uplift of spirits and a group endorsement of a happy future.
Of course there were some other things going on, none of which the crowd at the Fire Ring paid much attention for the duration of travel. It took most of yesterday to muddle through them in this extraordinary time. One Cabinet Secretary revealed taking the last two months off to stay home with two new infants. There is naturally more to the story. That official was a former mayor of a moderate Midwestern city that had problems with potholes in the road. Now, (Splash chortled at that, saying “you can’t be sure of what pronouns “they” want to use!”)
There are no biological females involved in the supply chain crisis for which “they” would theoretically be responsible, except that of course there is at least one. We know that. The new parents must know it, but the highlight was a photo of a biologic male performing a necessary nurturing function that made Loma shake his head- we are pretty sure of his pronouns, anyway- and then stalk in a dudgeon to the pickup truck to snag a pack of Marlboros.
All the crises that were in progress at the start of the trip are still in progress. Despite fairly wide experience in the world, the number of them is startling and reflects a world that has lurched from a chilly conflict between the USSR and the West, led by the United States. Thirty years ago the Communist superpower fell, leaving the U.S. as the sole Great Power for thirty years. It would not be a surprise to see that others have sought to enhance their positions, and to topple America as what we thought was the leader of a free world.
That is in progress, with China’s dramatic rise. Russia is restive. New alliances are forming, and old ones transforming. Who would have thought NATO- the North Atlantic Treaty Organization- would have aspirations in the Pacific. Or that we might have to reinvent the awkward sounding AUKUS military relationship by adding some letters. Some of these issues have been simmering for quite a while, and the Fire Ring is only waking up to it now.
With a Cabinet Secretary declaring “their” absence from work during a crisis to be a human right, there is a whole new hierarchy of needs to be met. In order to deal with increasing crime, we are told to defund the Cops. And eliminate cash bail, so that the accused can be returned swiftly to the streets. For the aged, this is a re-run of a similar tumultuous period a half century ago. It was solved by beefing up law enforcement and putting criminals in jail. The consensus in the group appears to be that it will happen again, but will require navigating some new social speedbumps, like high school sexual assaults by a boy in a dress in a room reserved for females.
That occurred in the county just north of our pleasant piece of the Piedmont. In addition to the usual litany of problems- inflation, unemployment, increasing international rivalries, there is of course the Climate Crisis.
Rising late due to time zone confusion, DeMille waved his tablet in the air from a prominent place on the Loading Dock. “The President and 13 Cabinet officials are going to Glasgow!”
There was some confusion around the circle. Many of us have been to Scotland and appreciated the visit. Some have family that originated there and wound up fighting their former King in a relatively recent revolution. But this development took the traveling section of the group by surprise. With all the trouble on the menu, the idea that Glasgow was the most urgent problem took us by surprise. Rocket had done his duty, and compiled a list of significant issues which will be addressed at the conference in Scotland.
“It is the Conference of the Parties. It is the 26th annual meeting, and thus called “COP26.”
“What kind of conference has to have more than one party?” asked Splash. Rocket was ready:
“COP26 is the latest United Nations climate change conference. They have been holding them for nearly thirty years. This is a big one, though. It will focus all the activities of all the Parties on this globe to meet the goals established back in 2015 at the COP in Paris.”
“What on earth are those? Are we going to start yelling at the weather again?” Splash looked a bit peeved, since he represents a body of thought which claims increasing Carbon Dioxide levels may be a problem, but most of the weather and climate changes which have occurred for billions of years is largely a factor of the changing activity of the big solar blaster that rises each day in the East. The Sun.
“Knock it off. The Scientists are now 99% on board with the idea that the only factor in weather is Carbon Dioxide. There is a new report that just said so.”
“That study is nonsense, and done in the same way the old “97%” consensus was. What is the UN going to tell us to do this time?”
“It is a little complex. In 2015, World leaders and tens of thousands of negotiators, government representatives, businesses and citizens agreed to try to limit increasing temperatures to 2.0 Degrees, with a goal of 1.5.”
DeMille shook his head. “See, we can’t even tell if they are talking about Celsius or Farenheit. For the record, it is “C,” and that is bigger than “F” degrees.”
Splash lit up a smoke and exhaled a gray cloud over the dark log-ends in the pit. “Most experts believe COP26 has unique urgency. Expect max publicity about the crisis to stop the end of the world.”
“So, what this is about is setting rules for how much CO2 is released into the atmosphere?”
“And who is going to pay for it. America seems to believe, or rather, some of America believes that it is worth kicking in a hundred billion dollars a year to pay for the effort.”
“The 2015 Paris Agreement is the only way to save the earth even if we don’t know what it is yet.”
“So, with everything else going on, the President and most of the Cabinet are going to Scotland to argue about something that is 440 parts per million in the air?”
“Yep. Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to creating Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and achieve them with dramatic action. Except for the biggest emitters, of course. China and India need a couple decades to continue to expel CO2 because they need to catch up in order to slow down.”
DeMille sighed at the misunderstanding. “The updated five-year plan will reflect highest possible ambition for control at this time. COP-26 IS THE YEAR for updates.”
Loma looked grim. “The Decade out to 2030 will be crucial. Action is required now and must be decisive.”
“So the decisive action is required even if there is some disagreement on what the problem is?”
“All it takes is age. I remember when this stuff started with the impending Ice Age. Then, in 1988, NASA’s Dr. Hansen warned the Senate that Global Warming had begun. He didn’t mention that he and Senator Tim Wirth’s staff sabotaged the air conditioning in the hearing room.”
“That was because the original Ice Age thing was falling apart. Then, Global Warming fell apart because Antartica is having the coldest temps ever and we had to change to “Climate Change” because that is one of the many things it does.”
“Don’t worry. It will all be pouring out of Glasgow and starting next week. So be alert. This will probably cost American taxpayers a hundred billion dollars a year.”
“What is the cost of losing the world?” asked Rocket. “That has got to be pretty expensive.”
“Somebody ought to do a study on it, and maybe talk about it someplace closer to home than Scotland.”
There were some looks around the Fire Ring. It is always useful to understand the reality the people in charge of us all live in, which appears different. “Hot” and “Cold” appear to be part of it, though it is always changing. Splash smiled and said “It is going to be expensive whether we actually do anything or not.”
Copyright 2021 Vic Socotra
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