So, the crowd was pleased with this week’s Weather Report, a snippet compilation of some of the stuff going on around the world in which we are going to have to live. Live together, if that is possible. The Chairman is adamant that we should not sink into a partisan account of the extraordinary events. That is a challenge, since virtually everything has assumed a basis in Science. Political Science.
Examples? Some horrible things are happening now in a place called Mariupol. The Russian forces would like to provide a victory to commemorate their last great Victory in the war against Fascism, which is approaching this Sunday. Reports from Moscow is that there ill be only about 130 moving vehicles, down from last year’s parade strength by about 60. The reason is attributed to needs in the Ukraine theater of operations. We think that assessment reflects a simple objective truth and avoids any speculation or attribution of motive or malice except for the obvious. There was some schadenfreude among the Vets who had participated in the seemingly endless struggle with the predecessor government in Russia at the disabled tanks and failures of the once invincible Red Army.
Others showed images of US Navy ships streaked with rust and reports of suicides onboard. Our military adapted to the endless Global War on Terror with a sort of collapse in Afghanistan, so objective reasoning suggests that there may be some commonality between the survivors of the old bi-polar world unrecognized until now.
Domestic forecast? The column in the image above on the left indicates the facts as reported about the economy. the bullet points are based on official reporting, and are weighing factors in the assessment of what is ahead for us all. The inflation numbers, the number one concern of American voters, is supposed to be the highest in more than forty years. Analysts outside the system look at all factors, including some excluded from the official numbers. Some say the real numbers may actually be in the range of 13%. This makes a trip to the supermarket a partially political journey in America. There have been other periods of sustained inflation, of course. The “Consumer Price Index” was introduced in 1913 to try to keep track of things. By that measure, the only common framework for a century of economic activity, the highest previous rate in America was 17.8% in 1917, on the verge of our entrance into the Great War in Europe. In a shorter timeframe, one is many of our lives, the 1970s saw the longest period of sustained inflationary rates.
We have discussed other factors, with the cost of fertilizer balanced against an effort to “decarbonize” the economic and physical system, which will impact the world’s largest economy. Prices will continue to rise, and an argument can be made that we are already in a recession, though formal declaration awaits the report of the second quarter of economic activity. We naturally are aware that criticism of the wise policies that have delivered this economic system is discouraged, and that other factors may impose their own imperatives on reporting. For America, that may include “elections.”
There is something else abroad in the world. Our focus has been on the conflict in Ukraine, which has minimized the impact of other events. Shanghai, one of the world’s amazing cities, is under a near 100% lock-down over a Covid outbreak the rest of the world seems to be leaving behind. There is no explanation for the severity of China’s response, but any objective analysis must attempt to understand the “why”of that, the impact on the world’s second largest economy, and the spreading impact on global supply chains.
Ukraine’s agriculture, breadbasket of Europe and points south to Africa, has been at least partially devoted to towing disabled Russian tanks off their fields. Reports of the removal of 400,000 tons of grain by Russian forces was an element in the cascade of information this week, as were reports that Saskatchewan had been contracted to provide grain to the Middle East with the expectation that normal supplies closer than half a world away may be necessary. That accounts for First and Second world problems. What confronts the Third world, with limited resources and citizens already on the edge, may provide a glimpse of real horror as the results of this growing season become known.
We do not understand what the Chinese are doing in their flagship city. We freely admit that we do not understand our own economic activity. But we do understand that those who do not reside in the same economic systems are going to get hungry much sooner than we will.
Oh, too late for inclusion in the Weather Report is a report on the weather. The University of Alabama at Huntsville is arbiter of some of the respected satellite-era of satellite measured global temperatures, another import set of controversial numbers portending climatic doom. UAH reports there has been no measurable change in global temperatures in seven and a half years. So, there is information in at least one direction that may not be alarming. But there are a lot of numbers out there, aren’t there?
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