There are multiple spinning cyclones in the world this morning. Those are the tight circling winds that break 75 miles an hour and can go to hundreds of mph in speed. Those are profound, and we have been told to treat them with respect. We are permitted smiles of mildly bemused amazement. It also accounted for the two fingers of scotch left in the bottle still on the picnic table as light rose under the sullen clouds this mid-week morning.

The Legal Intern said we could talk about the VP debate last night, since that is the news bump that replaced the Government Shut Down as the big detonation in the Endless Campaign. The result was reported as being the way discussions between two middle-aged white guys used to be like. You know, inconclusive. Not like the other debates, which seemed kind of, you know, “ordained” in reported result.

We already voted, so that might be why there was some Glenmorangie Signet Single Malt Scotch left in the elegant bottle. We were comfortable with that, since we stocked up again at the stores and bank yesterday due to predicted cyclonic activity in the forecast.

As opposed to political stuff we don’t understand, we got diverted to stuff we do, or better said “did’ have some experience with, since that was in the messaging as well.

When we were younger and more vigorous, we were introduced to long olive-drab painted objects with a blunt streamlined shape. We knew them as “Mark Eighty-Twos (Mk-82s)” and they weighed a quarter ton. They were smooth teel shaped things filled with high explosives that had to be handled carefully before being delivered to a place where they could be detonated safely. Or at least safely to those who were delivering them.

We used to pat them casually in respect when we walked past a nest of them stacked in the bomb farm near the elevator to the flight deck on our walk to work in the morning, and so their development has been a topic in the Salts corner of the Creative Section at Socotra House.

We had been attempting to describe the new personal nature of the Israeli response to the slowly mounting pressure by Iran against their existence. Jimmy Carter, formerly the worst President in America’s history, started part of it when he supported the French decision to return the Ayatollah Khomeini to Tehran in 1979 after 14 years exile.

Mr. Carter turned 100 yesterday, the first former President to have achieved that feat, so we could, theoretically, ask him what the heck he was thinking. But we are too busy trying to understand what had happened since his misjudgment brought us into the cyclone of the war that has continued since.

Yesterday was an eye-opener. Splash had been analyzing the string about the Israeli strike on the Hezbollah HQ in Beirut over the weekend, the one that preceded yesterday’s response by Tehran. He had a nice chart that showed the development of the MK-82 dumb bomb to the Glide Bomb Unit 28 we knew, the one with the PAVEWAY III sensor bolted to the nose and the maneuverable fin package attached to the stern. That enabled a greater stand-off range and better safety for the aircrews with whom we slept and showered in a respectful manner.

We moved on to other less safe activities and the bomb people were at work as well. The GBU family evolved into BLUs- we liked the way it rolled off the tongue as a “BLU-82,” which has a jolly sound quite at odds with the actual intent.

The ones used in Friday’s strike on the Hezbollah HQ may have been the ones containing thermobaric warheads. Those are the ones that release a cloud of volatile particulates that turn into expanding concussive fireballs with dramatic sudden overpressure. Al Jazira reported said Nasrallah’s body was intact, though lifeless, when found, so we think that is what the Israelis sent.

The package was said to be eight or a dozen F-15 Strike Eagles, each carrying four BLU-109s on the hop to Beirut they then guided with precision into the four corners of four high rise buildings, impacting simultaneously at three or four floor levels to collapse the structures as a penetrator or two dug into the basement. Those few tons spread fuel-air explosive into the very conference room where a dozen senior officials were discussing how to use rockets to murder Israeli civilians.

You can see how complex things are in cyclones.

So, yesterday, in response to that, the Iranians responded by firing a couple hundred ballistic missiles from their soil directly at Israel. Unambiguous in intent, but results more ambiguous, since the barrage reportedly killed only one civilian.

The Israeli military said the attack was slightly larger than April’s barrage. That one featured about 110 ballistic missiles with 30 cruise missiles also in the mix. We don’t know much about the payloads on them. That matter is what sparked the animated discussion that drained most of the remaining Glenmorangle along with the breakfast burritos, another sort of cyclone.

We don’t know precisely what the Iranians launched yesterday, but according to the press, the Shahab-3 rocket is the foundation for all Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles. It is a liquid propelled device that entered service in 2003. It can carry warheads of around a ton and be fired from mobile launchers as well as silos.

The newest variants are named the ‘Ghadr’ and ‘Emad’ models with accuracies rated with a circular error probability (CEP) of 300 meters. For American readers, that is roughly the diameter of the Wells Fargo Plaza in Houston. Just for reference.

And also for reference, none of them managed to hit the intended targets and defensive missiles were fired successfully by Israel’s Iron Dome defense. And the Jordanians, of all people, who may have thought the rockets were coming at them. Not to mention at least two of the USN ships in the East Med. One of them was USS Cole, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer that was hit by a suicide boat attack in Aden Harbor this month in 2000 that killed 17 sailors and injured 37.

Iranian media reported they used the new ‘Fattah-1’ missile in the attacks. It Is described as a “hypersonic” weapon that travels as much as five times the speed of sound. We should note that all the ballistic missiles are that speedy at some point in their trajectories, and none of them worked this time, so ambiguity and speed are part of the equation.

Up in Ukraine? That cyclone is still swirling. Our shipmate down in Tidewater has been doing a daily on that war since it started. His estimates are that the total casualties in that regional cyclone now are around a million combined dead, wounded, or missing and likely more with the storm deadlocked and no end in sight.

There has been talk of how either side might break the static front, the one in which Russia has the manpower to simply continue to grind away and Ukraine doesn’t.

So, that is the other cyclone in progress atop the one here at home. It will be interesting to see what comes of the synergy between them. With our military already firing rockets as part of it, there was some speculation if a general war alert here in Washington might be a useful part of whatever the October Surprise is going to be.

At least we are finally in the right month for it! So, don’t be surprised when the surprise is announced! Or maybe it has. That is the nature of cyclones, you know?

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra

www.vicsocotra.com

so with use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Europeans are tiring. And no one in the United States has come up with a strategy to push back the Russians from either their February 2022 demarcation points or their post-2014 occupation of Ukrainian borderlands.

and we’re covering the vice presidential candidate face-off, a barrage of Iranian missiles into Israel, and much more. First time reading

Nasrallah’s body reportedly showed no direct physical injury, raising the likelihood that his death resulted from shock due to the force of the explosion.

The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth revealed that intelligence for the airstrike was provided by the Israeli Military Intelligence Division, particularly Unit 8200.

The Guided Bomb Unit-28/B (GBU-28/B) laser-guided bomb (LGB) consists of a BLU-113 5,000-lb laser-guided bomb with penetrating warhead topped a modified Paveway III guidance unit and mobile tail assembly. Israel released video showing “Israeli Air Force Fighter Jets Involved in the Elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s Central Headquarters in Lebanon,” shows at least eight planes in a row armed with 2,000-pound bombs. Some are too far away to clearly identify the exact model, but the closer planes are seen armed with BLU-109 bombs. That model of bomb is also identifiable when the video shows two planes taking off, with one plane carrying at least seven of those munitions.

BLU-109/B is a hardened bunker buster penetration bomb used by the United States Air Force (BLU is an acronym for Bomb Live Unit). As with other “bunker busters”, it is intended to penetrate concrete shelters and other hardened structures before exploding. In addition to the US, it is part of the armament of the air forces of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and United Arab Emirates.[2]

Design

[edit]

The BLU-109/B has a steel casing about 1 inch (25 mm) thick. Its warhead is filled with 550 pounds (250 kg) of Tritonal.[3] It has a mechanical-electrical delayed-action FMU-143 tail-fuze.[4]

The BLU-109 entered service in 1985. It is also used as the warhead of some marks of the GBU-15 electro-optically guided bomb, the GBU-24 Paveway III and GBU-27 Paveway III laser-guided bombs, as well as the GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM)[5] and AGM-130 air-to-surface missile.

Variants

[edit]

The BLU-118 is reportedly a thermobaric explosive filler variation on the BLU-109 casing and basic bomb design.[6] It contains PBXIH-135, a traditional explosive.[7]

Thermobaric weapon – Wikipedia

A thermobaric weapon, also called an aerosol bomb, or a vacuum bomb,[1] is a type of explosive munition that wor…

In 2015 General Dynamics started a $7.2 million development of a version called HAMMER, which is intended to destroy chemical and biological substances by spreading dozens of Kinetic Fireballs Incendiaries (KFI) (not explosions) inside a bunker. The KFIs evolved out of the earlier Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program by Exquadrum, Inc. of Adelanto, California

Adelanto, California – Wikipedia

Adelanto (Spanish for “Advance”) is a city in San Bernardino County, California, United States. It is approxima…

Debate: Ohio Senator J. D. Vance turned in a confident and controlled debate performance Tuesday night, seemingly making a stronger case for the reelection of his running mate, former president Donald Trump, than Trump himself has in either of his two debates this year.

Vance kept Democrat Tim Walz on his heels for most of the night, arguing that the country was safer, and more prosperous during Trump’s first term in office than it’s been under nearly four years with Kamala Harris as vice president. He swatted away Walz’s contention that Harris has plans to fix the border crisis and strengthen the economy, saying that as vice president she “ought to do them now.”

Walz, who has mostly avoided the media spotlight since he was tapped by Harris, appeared nervous when the bout began, stumbling over his words and taking long pauses to collect himself. Vance, by contrast, seemed poised after sitting for near daily interviews with adversarial journalists.