Yesterday I mentioned that the goddess Gaia – she of global warming and climate change – was a part of the new official pantheon. Well, she’s been in the news of late. As I write this on Friday afternoon Hurricane Matthew is brushing the east coast of Florida, causing a great deal of excitement. Or, more to the point, a great deal of conflict between two lesser demigods – the nymph Propaganda and sprite Prudence.

What kind of conflict? To give you a sample, here’s part of an article in Popular Science published Thursday evening:

As Hurricane Matthew charges into Florida with winds up to 140 mph, approximately 1.5 million people are preparing to clear out of the storm’s path. By Thursday evening, the National Weather Service was imploring residents to head to safety. “Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life or immense human suffering,” the agency said on its website. On Thursday, President Obama declared a State of Emergency in Florida.

And then there was Matt Drudge, who was instead declaring a State of Conspiracy. The founder of the Drudge Report spent his evening blasting out tweets that the storm’s forecast was grossly overblown. He even went so far as to accuse the government of exaggerating Hurricane Matthew’s intensity just to make a point about the dangers of climate change…

Hugh Cobb, Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, told Popular Science that he was aware of Drudge’s comments and that while he would not comment directly on them, he reacted with a groan. Cobb emphasized that all of NOAA’s data is collected straight from the storm using reconnaissance aircraft. Aircraft have no political agenda.

Remember that 140 mph number.

But before we continue, Dr Roy Spencer clarifies technical points about hurricane wind speed:

Research airplanes fly into western Atlantic hurricanes and measure winds at flight level in the regions most likely to have the highest winds.

…Another issue that… the “maximum sustained winds” reported for hurricanes [can appear] overestimated [because] the area of maximum winds usually covers an extremely small portion of the hurricane. As a result, seldom does an actual anemometer on a tower [near ground level] measure anything close to what is reported as the maximum sustained winds.

As to the matter of agenda, NOAA certainly has one. They are arch-Warmists and not above using deception to achieve their ends. In this case there’s a double agenda – promoting global warming alarmism and electing a Democrat to the presidency. These are just facts, comrade.

I’m pretty sure Popular Science has an agenda too. Unless I’m mistaken they’re one of the formerly reputable publications which have turned themselves into climate change shills.

Now, with regard to Hurricane Matthew, there were legitimate warning issues. However many in the media crossed over into hysterical doom-crying. In fact it got so bad that a couple of organizations felt it necessary to specifically deny that they were exaggerating the threat posed by the storm. Maybe if you parse their words carefully those two weren’t exaggerating. But others were. Grossly. One headline from Thursday claimed the Atlantic coast of Florida could be “uninhabitable for months.” I think the always-annoying Shepard Smith of Fox News took the cake. Here’s what he said on Thursday afternoon:

“This moves 20 miles to the west, and you and everyone you know are dead – all of you – because you can’t survive it. It’s not possible unless you’re very, very lucky. And your kids die, too.”

The first phrase was worst-casing. The remainder was ridiculous hyperbole. There were two worst-case scenarios for the hurricane, both of which would have needed to happen: a) Matthew could have remained a CAT 4 hurricane, and b) it could have turned hard left and come ashore on Florida’s central coast. Neither were likely and neither happened. The storm weakened to CAT 3 and remained offshore. Here’s a radar map of Matthew at its closest point of approach to the Florida coast Friday morning:

It’s still possible Mathew will come ashore in South Carolina. But by then it will be weaker.

The Governors of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina – Republicans all – ordered mass evacuation of at-risk areas. That was prudent. I would have done the same were I in their place. But unfortunately this and similar previous actions have created a Chicken Little Effect. Most people now understand that the authorities and the media deliberately tout worst-case scenarios in order to get high compliance with evacuation orders. Alas, the more they do this the less likely people will be to take them seriously next time. It’s difficult to communicate the distinction between “could” be very dangerous and “will” be.

Real Science, in a posting from early Friday, juxtaposes hype and reality:

Back to those supposed 140 mph winds. The strongest wind gust recorded (unofficially) Friday morning was 88 mph near Satellite Beach. That’s in the Cape Canaveral area. Most wind velocities were quite a bit less than that – in the 55-65 mph range. Storm surge was also well below predictions.

Out here in Colorado it’s not unusual to see 55-65 mph wind gusts on blustery days. The strongest wind I’ve ever experienced – and I’ve ridden out two CAT 1 hurricanes – was a downslope Chinook here at Mountain House about ten years ago. The strongest gust was clocked at 113 mph. The house was buffeted all night but in the morning the only damage was some scattering of light unmoored objects. Farther downslope the framework of a house under construction was blown over. Some houses nearby had roofing tiles broken loose. There were a few branches down but no entire trees. That was it. It would have been different had the Chinook got to 140 mph, which approaches tornado wind velocity.

A word on the politics of Hurricane Matthew. Incumbent Obama profited handsomely from “Superstorm Sandy” ( the collision of a fading hurricane and a cold weather front). The typically mediocre government response was portrayed as a paragon of efficiency. No doubt Democrats hoped (and perhaps still hope) to repeat the trick in 2016. On Wednesday Mr Obama levered off the approaching hurricane to tout his worthless Paris climate accord. NBC correspondent Ron Allen carried the ball further, saying the “Paris climate deal will prevent future hurricanes.” No kidding. He said that. Mrs Clinton made a huge ad buy on the Weather Channel – this was later withdrawn after Eric Trump called the ploy ghoulish. The Trump campaign suspects there will be a “climate ambush” during Sunday’s presidential debate by partisan moderator Anderson Cooper. One assumes the GOP candidate is making prudent worst-case preparations.

Climate alarmism plays on public ignorance. Friday afternoon Rush Limbaugh said “it takes a special kind of stupid” to believe the hype. That’s true. But it also would be arrogant to ignore weather-related warnings (Rush didn’t – he moved his radio show from Palm Beach to Los Angeles). You have to recognize that warning is an uncertain business and that sloppy and/or politically-motivated media types are likely to exaggerate. Be prudent. Prepare. Act early. Better safe than sorry. Ultimately, you’re on your own. Make the best decision you can.

And, just out of curiosity, circle back afterward to compare hype with reality.

Except that Hurricane Mathew didn’t, strictly speaking, “hit” the US. The time since a major hurricane landfall is now 4001 days… and counting.

– Tacitus

Copyright 2016 Tacitus
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