Arrias: China, North Korea and President Trump

In case you missed it, two interesting things have happened in China over the last month or so:

First comes news that President Xi is now, effectively, president for life. The Chinese constitution has been changed and he’s now set up until he wants to retire… Pretty good deal for him, not so much for 1.4 billion Chinese, who will see Xi’s already exceptional power grow. He is, for all intents and purposes, the dictator of China. Perhaps he prefers Emperor.

And, Apple reached an agreement with the Chinese government that will move Apple’s iCloud data in China to state run servers, and at the same time Apple has, in accordance with Chinese law, provided the Chinese government access to the encryption keys if the government wants to access the data.

Apple, as you may recall, refused to assist the FBI in breaking into the cell phone of the gunmen who killed 14 and wounded 22 in San Bernadino, December 2015, arguing that doing so would “undermine decades of security advancements that protect our customers.”

Several months after the shooting the tech correspondent for one of the major media outlets noted that Apple “stuck to its guns in defending civil liberties.”

Hmmm… But not in China… It would seem they’re more worried about protecting their market share.

Given what has just happened with Apple, and will certainly happen sooner or later with any other company moving data around inside China, one can be certain that Emperor Xi will be able to keep track of whatever it is that you’ve got on your laptop if you’re in China.

And keep track of you. As has been reported in a number of papers (the Washington Post had an excellent article on this issue in January), China is pushing the edge of the envelope in developing and deploying facial recognition software and devices to cover every inch of the country. The goal is to develop a true surveillance state. Which is, I suspect, the dream of every absolute dictator.

All powerful, all knowing, all seeing. Emperor Xi… As I said, good deal for Xi.

What has this to do with North Korea or President Trump?

First, note that Kim Jong Un of North Korea is different than President Xi – he’s got less money. No less power-hungry, just less cash and a smaller country. But just as much lust for power.

China is significant because China is the reason North Korea survives; food and fuel and technology support arrive in North Korea because China, at a minimum, lets it move. By most accounts North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs exists only because of help from China. And China’s economy provides a “relief valve” for North Korea by providing jobs and a black market that keeps the North afloat.

More to the point, it’s doubtful anything of note happens in North Korea that Emperor Xi isn’t aware of. So, one has to suppose that Emperor Xi has a major role in what may be developing, specifically…

And, as you’re probably aware, President Trump responded favorably to an offer, conveyed through the South Koreans, to meet with Kim Jong Un. Kim has developed his nuclear weapons, but hasn’t tested anything in several months and President Trump is trying to defuse – and de-nuclearize – the situation.

If Kim Jong Un accepts this meeting (there was still no word of acceptance as of Sunday afternoon), you can rest assured that there was some sort of consultation with Xi before accepting. Xi will look at this meeting as an opportunity to establish some separation between the US the Republic of Korea, as part of the negotiations to halt the North’s nuclear program. Things that might be suggested by Kim (and Beijing) would include reducing the US presence in South Korea, and ending joint US – Republic of Korea military training.

If Kim accepts, I suspect it will come with a request by Kim (and the Chinese) to have the meeting take place in Beijing or some other city in China.

President Trump is taking a bold step; if Kim accepts, there is going to be a great deal in play, with the effort by Beijing to use the talks as the starting point to push the US off the mainland of Asia.

But, however this particular gambit plays out, make no mistake, Kim Jong Un is not acting alone.

Copyright 2018 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com

Written by Vic Socotra

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