Imagine “Son of Sam” David Berkowitz has been paroled and is moving into your neighborhood. Can you forgive and forget? Should you?

June 4th marked the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre, the Chinese government’s violent suppression of student demonstrators calling for reform; they killed several thousand students.

Since then policy “sages” have insisted we forget Tiananmen, and deal with China as an upright member of the international community; our “soft power” will change – indeed is changing – China.

But has the government in Beijing really changed?

Is China’s leadership today “descended” from Mao (who caused the deaths of perhaps 35 million Chinese – probably many more (estimates run to 150 million)); the military occupation of Tibet; continued aiding and abetting of the Kim regime in North Korea; unprovoked war on Vietnam in 1979; plans to manipulate Himalayan rivers that irrigate most of SE Asia; occupation of islands in the South China Sea; persecution of its minorities (1,000,000 Uighurs in concentration camps)?

Or is this a changed China, one that’s put all that behind it; deals fairly with all the world; honors trade agreements and the rule of law; and, respects the courts in matters of land, property rights, and patents?

And what about China’s new pal, the Russians; nearly ramming USS Chancellorsville? Nothing really new. Look up “1988 Black Sea Bumping Incident” and you can see pictures of Russian (Soviet) ships ramming (“shouldering”) USS Yorktown and USS Caron.

Forgiving and forgetting an individual can be hard enough, but forgiving and forgetting the actions of a government is hardly wise foreign policy; nations must demonstrate continuous civilized behavior. What we’ve seen from Russia and China is that – despite the US looking the other way for three decades, assuming both countries are adhering to the rule of law – every time we’ve given an inch, they’ve taken a yard.

China insists we shouldn’t meddle, while occupying Tibet; China mouths platitudes about the People, but has a million people in concentration camps; China calls for “free trade,” while using a host of predatory practices and stealing intellectual property every chance it gets. And bullying its neighbors; occupying islands in the South China Sea despite a glaring finding by the international court; building the largest and most intrusive surveillance state ever imagined.

And on and on.

In Russia, Putin bemoans US behavior in supporting our allies as he continues his occupation of Crimea; continues a low-grade war in Eastern Ukraine; maintains political pressure on Western Ukraine to squeeze Ukraine into compliance with Russian aims; violates a nuclear weapons treaty; and conspires with China to force the US out of the Western Pacific.

And so Russian ships and aircraft make close approaches to US ships and aircraft; while we find ourselves in a trade war trying to curb Chinese predatory practices that have cost the US a host of jobs, and massive investments in technology.

China hasn’t changed its stripes. China’s Xi and his minions are concerned about power, and little else. They want absolute control over their people, and to extend that same control over their neighbors – and eventually the world.
And Russia remains Russia. Russia has, for centuries, wanted larger and more robust “buffer zones;” they still do. Russia insists it’s a great power and is jealous of every state that threatens that position. Russia is particularly jealous of the United States and will use every opportunity to poke at us; siding with China – and selling them advanced weaponry – provides them such opportunities.

Great-Power politics is rarely subtle; China and Russia will challenge the US every chance they get. Every time the US fails to stand its ground, gives an inch, they will take the yard. US “soft power” policies of the last 25 years sent both China and Russia the signal that the US was willing to cede those “yards,” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

Tiananmen demonstrated that Beijing wouldn’t cede power to their citizens. 30 years later the tiger has not changed its stripes, despite endless predictions by experts on the efficacy of soft power. The Soviet Union was quite willing to aggressively challenge US operations in international seas and airspace, and current Russian leadership remains enamored of the same heavy-handed practices.

We may wish otherwise. But the truth is the experts were wrong; neither country has changed; and wishing and hoping make lousy policy pillars. Trump is right to stand his ground and defend US interests; despite the rhetoric from the media, his policies are doing more for US interests abroad than the last three administrations. He’s equally right in calling for increases in defense forces to ensure we can sustain our defense posture.

Copyright 2019 Arrias
www.vicsocora.com