There’s a lot of talk about Hong Kong. As I write this the protests continue. And as I write this people are debating what if anything the US (and President Trump) should do about the PRC’s actions. It has generated commentary that US actions could lead to a military confrontation with Beijing.
Hmmm…
A few weeks ago I read an editorial that compared US trade actions against China with US trade restrictions against Japan prior to WWII. The implication was that the US brought on the war with Japan because the US embargo on steel and oil shipments forced Japan into a corner.
So, here’s a quick test: When did World War II begin?
December 7th, 1941 – Pearl Harbor when Japan attacked the US or:
December 8th when we declared war on Japan
December 11th, when the US declared war on Germany
July 1941 when the US froze all Japanese assets and ended oil shipments to Japan
September 1940 when Japan, Germany and Italy enter the Tripartite Pact
January 1940 when the US Abrogates US–Japan Treaty of Commerce and Navigation
September 1st, 1939 – Germany invades Poland or September 3rd, 1939 – when Great Britain declared war on Germany
December 1937 when Japanese forces attack USS Panay
July 7th, 1937 when Japan invaded China
September 18th, 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria
January 15th, 1936 – Japan withdraws from the London Naval Treaty
September 29th, 1911 – Italy occupies Libya
The list goes on (and on…)
Germany, Japan and Italy all commenced aggressive actions against their neighbors long before we commonly talk about “the beginning of the war.” The actions of those three regimes included terrorizing various peoples, whether in Abyssinia, Korea, Manchuria, the Sudetenland or their own country, as with the Jews in Germany, and a blatant disregard for norms of international behavior and international law.
China is doing the same thing; Uighurs in western China, the followers of Falun Gong, or the people of Hong Kong; disregard of international courts, occupation of islands, etc., etc.
In doing so they also threaten the interests of the US, all of our allies, and virtually every other country in Asia. What do you call it when someone threatens your interests? It’s a conflict. When nations can’t settle a conflict peacefully it leads to war.
There’s a good deal of talk about how war has changed, talk about gray zones, hybrid war, cyber war, unconventional war, and little green men. A brief walk through history of Japanese actions in Manchuria, or German actions in Poland and Czechoslovakia will show that there is little that hasn’t already been tried. Cyber is new, but information warfare has been well-established for generations. We can only be glad that there was no internet for Dr. Goebbels to exploit.
In 50 years historians may well be asking when did WWIII begin. As with WWII, if our conflict with China does lead to war, historians may well look back at this era and, as with Japan, say that the war began far earlier than any future actual declaration.
The point in all this is that we were “in conflict” with Japan long before the war began. We are currently bumping heads – in conflict – with China, and for good cause: theft of our technology, predatory economic behavior on a vast scale, persecution of its own people, willful violation of international norms and international laws, etc.
There’s every reason to believe that Beijing’s behavior can be modified – one way or another – without resort to a hot war. After all, our conflict with the Soviet Union ended without a global war. The President appears to be making a concerted effort to do just that. But he’s no more responsible for China’s bad behavior than FDR was responsible for Japan’s war of conquest.
Furthermore, it’s time for corporations to “get onboard” and act responsibly, as we would have expected them to do in 1940.
One final thought: it’s impossible to know, but it’s hard to believe that a divided USA could have provided the industrial effort that led to the defeat of the Axis powers in WWII. We will face a host of real issues in the decades ahead; if we face them as a divided nation there’s every reason to believe we’ll fail.
The consequences of that failure would be catastrophic both for the US and for the rest of humanity.
Copyright 2019 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com