Henry Ford famously noted that: “History is bunk.” Hmmm…

On 14 September Houthis rebels (from Yemen), a de facto proxy force of the government of Iran, attacked the largest single oil refinery complex in the world – the Abqaiq complex in eastern Saudi Arabia, about 40 miles southwest of Dhahran. The specifics are still not public, but what we know is that 10 drones hit the refinery.

The details will probably trickle out this week, but what matters far more is that the oil fields were attacked, and Iran is almost to a certainty at the root of it.

First, fuel (and energy) prices will rise. Because the US, thanks to wildcatters, is the world’s largest oil producer, there won’t be a repeat of the 1970s OPEC crisis – at least in the US. But prices will rise; fears will drive speculation and push prices higher, and net consuming countries will try to fill up strategic stockpiles. How high will prices go? Who knows. But, in February 2006 the same complex was attacked by two terrorists with car-bombs. No damage was done to the complex, and both terrorists were killed. Yet, oil prices rose $2 per barrel.

Europe to some extent, China and Japan to a greater extent, will really feel the pinch. And supplies will go down for the short term at least: Saudi Arabia has already shut down some 5 million barrels per day of production – almost half of their production.

Second, we’re back to the great fault line in the Islamic world: the Sunni – Shia schism. Shia’s constitute only 12-13% of the Islamic world, but of the 150 – 160 million Shia, some 82 million live in Iran, and another 3 million live in Saudi Arabia. More than half of the population of Iraq is also Shia. The schism routinely results in violence.

Third, we needs a long-range electric power plan for abundant and cheap electricity. Solar power and high density batteries are swell if you can afford the high cost of the energy – and also the expensive toxic cleanup associated with them. Wind power is great if you can afford the high cost of the power (and have the plastics – petroleum – available to make them; and don’t like birds). But the bottom half of the economy can’t afford higher energy costs. We need cheap electricity, and that means coal or nuclear. Don’t like coal? Nuclear power is the only other real option.

And what about Iran?

Clearly, the Saudis have a voice, after all, they were attacked. But in a very real sense, everyone was attacked. We may wax philosophical about not fighting a war for oil, but what about fighting a war for heat and electric power for the poor? The oil that will fuels heaters across the northern half of the country this coming winter is being refined now. Those prices will go up (and supply will, at least for a short while, go down). The fuel used to move food will be more expensive, which means food will be more expensive. The petroleum and natural gas that form the foundations of the chemical industry that fertilizes our crops, package those crops, refrigerate those crops, plus the fuel that powers the tractors that harvest those crops, they too will see price hikes.

So, something has to be done. President Trump gave Iran a pass following the Iranian attacks on tankers just a few months ago (though he probably also conducted a cyber attack – but he did allow them to save face). But the time for restraint is gone. And Washington needs to be clear that the “Pottery Barn” theory of war planning (You break it, you buy it) no longer applies.

An attack on Iranian military capabilities is in order. There are all sorts of details, what to attack, how to attack it. But the driving consideration should be to demonstrate to the Iranians that any advantage, or any satisfaction, that they received from this attack is massively offset by the losses incurred from the retaliation. It needs to be abundantly clear that their attack wasn’t worth it and that they need to step back from the brink.

In short, Iran’s ability to attack its neighbors – by whatever means – needs to be dramatically reduced.

But note this: Iran will act again. Whether we do something or not, they will act again. We need to push back any of their plans far enough that we can better prepare for the next round. This is going to be a long fight.

How long? Go back to history. The Sunni – Shia schism is 1339 years old and still boiling.

Clausewitz, the Prussian Field Marshall, noted that: “the result in war is never final.” We would be wise to remember that, too.

Copyright 2019 Arrias
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