Indications and Warning


(This diagram reflects a process we used to use on a professional basis to understand how things were going on any given day. It was based on assumptions we used to think were important. A guy named Stanislav Petrov ignored them at work in 1983. Many of these have changed in meaning since we studied it around the same time. We are in a new World, you know?)

The Holiday celebrating Labor is now past. There is some disagreement on why the holiday is celebrated in this month as opposed to May Day as many around the world do. That might involve the politics of a time now distant in America, and a President many do not remember at all in the conflict over getting rid of some of our past and celebrating other parts of it. See? It was easy. President Grover Cleveland was the Chief Executive who signed Senate Bill 730 establishing the holiday as the first Monday in September. It honors the contribution of Labor to America’s history, independent of other nations.

The Writer’s Section at Socotra House tends to be originalists in their appreciation of history, since the people who made it had reasons which should be part of any rational discussion about the “whys” and “wherefores” of some of the stuff we are elevating or deleting. We just established a new one a couple months ago. “Juneteenth” is not new, of course, since it is older than Labor Day, but it is useful to group together several other celebrations of the aspects of Union victory over the secessionists and the validation of freedom for citizens who had recently been enslaved.

Of course, for a long time the leaders of the defeated secessionist states had a powerful lobby to protect elements of their Lost Cause, derived from power enshrined in parts of the original Constitution. It lasted a century, from the end of the Civil War to a remarkable day in 1965 when the Civil Rights Act was passed and signed into law by another interesting President, Lyndon Baines Johnson. His reputation has been a matter of some controversy over the years, but generally speaking, for specifics he is remembered about the way Grover Cleveland is.

The short take published here on Labor Day in The Daily edition provoked some comment, since the Interns had the day off, and there was no one to parade the Footnotes on large posters at appropriate moments. The comment about the drug Ivermectin roused some controversy, which should have prompted one of associate staff to walk quietly past the rostrum with the equivocations printed in large and legible letters. The Footnote would explain that the Writer’s Section generally opposes mortality and supports rational public health measures. There is some disagreement on what they are. Most of us happen to be vaccinated, not because of fear of the COVID, but rather fear of government intervention in travel without suitable documentation. So, the little circle of reprobates mostly is compliant because they recognize there are some issues larger than personal preference.

That in turn led swiftly to a discussion about the other issue regarding the End of the World. In that discussion a lot more interns and signs are required. It is our opinion that things presented as “fact” and “truth” are actually starting points, most requiring their own placards. One of the points in controversy was that the cost in human life due to changes in the climate appear to be overstated based on figures published by the government we support. It is part of a family of stories that support policy. Those evolve over time. Hotter or Colder? Sea level rise? That sign would include measured increase, and notes on subsidence and uplift of dry land. A couple of millimeters per year hardly seems a compelling reason to change the way civilizations operate. The ones old enough- and lucky enough- to have stumbled into retirement recall the clarion call to save island nations that would soon be eradicated by the man-caused rising seas.

Some of those island states actually have more land area today than they used to. Measuring stations in those places that have a couple centuries of coherent records seem to support the idea that a few millimeters annual rise is just something to expect when emerging from a climate cycle known as The Little Ice Age, which coincided with low solar activity. A pal pointed out that perceptions have changed to the degree that we are no longer speaking about the same things. He noted that our ideas about things like warfare are rooted in events like the mass engagement of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in places like Flanders Fields a century ago. Or the gigantic evolution in which the parents of the Boomers- and the consequences that actually produced that pesky generation- need to be factored into the equation. That includes revision to what we knew as “Indications and Warnings.”

Sadly, we are all Boomers, and discussion picked up around the circle with the third cup of coffee and the dwindling few that still smoke, idly flicking the ashes toward the fire pit. I&W is what we called it when we were in the business. There were a host of them, derived from detection and analysis of events far away. Movement of machines, be they military formations or aircraft, ships underway or deeply submerged in the world ocean, carrying rockets capable of being launched from below the sea to deliver horrific cargoes of atomic weapons. That near-term military context was one we understood, but in term had its own deck of indicators, which included economic activity in open and closed societies.

You need to have responsibility for just one of those little Indicators, which depending on activity and an understanding of what the activity might portend, might begin to display a different colored light on an electronic board festooned with dozens and dozens of them. In some times there might be a few of them blinking. Some were “red” all the time, since there was activity that merited concern. At other times, the display might show some blinking yellow, trending toward an ominous crimson hue.

If we were right, of course. There was always the possibility that our understanding was incorrect, or based on assumptions that had not changed with evolving circumstance. In the current day, that leads some to apply old standards to things that are no longer relevant or even close to modern truth. The idea that most citizens would travel with personal video recording devices capable of forwarding data captured in near real time is not “new,” but it was hardly in the category of being “ubiquitous.” Now, it constitutes a new means of perception that could not have been imagined only twenty years ago.

Does it mean there is more unusual and anti-social behavior being acted out? Simple emotion would say “well of course, just look at it!” Others might opine that it is a reflection of technical change more than a social one. But the perception, goaded by the change, is reflective of a difference in what we consider might be blinking from “green” through “yellow” to an ominous “red.”

The Writer’s Section is in complete agreement. Analysis of our analytic reference point is necessary. There was mention of the statistics on the use of firearms in four or five of America’s cities over yesterday’s holiday. We agreed not to bring it up, since there would be too many factors to include in the analytic breakdown. Personally, I am a Detroiter, and I remember the number “714” as the number of murders in 1974. Detroit, once the 5th largest American city, did not make the top five for Labor Day mention. So, depending on perception, our last Labor Day demonstrated some troubling I&W. On the other hand, looking at numbers the way we do climate stuff, the Motor City has led the way in keeping its streets safe.

Rocket said we ought to consider a holiday to named for that Russian Lieutenant Colonel, a functionary in the other system that used I&W for important decisions. His system detected a missile launch- peaceful- from Norway that also met the criteria for the beginning of a nuclear first strike on his homeland. He decided his shift at work was not going to be the end of the world. That decision was a good one, and it allowed all the rest of us to live our lives without the inconvenience of the end of civilization. Do we even recall his name?

It really is a matter of understanding the indications and warnings trade. We are happy to say that the Writer’s Section is on the case. We will keep you posted.

Copyright 2021 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Written by Vic Socotra