So here we go. We are aware of the new Footnote that is supposed to start these things out. The essence of it is that we support the government of the United States, it’s elected officials, and particularly those who could administer sanctions against kindly and aged citizens.
These Weather Reports have a long history at Socotra House. They are intended to prompt discussion about real things, not the tiresome partisan rants that currently constitute media journalism from the two major echo chambers. As the holidays recede into pleasant memory, it is time to look at how things will unfold in the days and months to come. Here in the US, there will doubtless be some emotional developments. We will strive to report them in an objective manner. Not that it is fun that way, but at least once a week an attempt might be useful.
You can go down the left column above at your leisure. Some of the items have been posted now for weeks, but all of them have developments churning away within. They are still useful as three general flashpoints for international trouble.
All three are active. The one with the most chugging about this morning is the one centered on Russia. The issues have changed a bit, and bled over into other spheres of trouble. The latest includes diplomacy, since talks including the US and NATO allies began Monday in what were described as “icy” terms. Finland and Sweden both have expressed interest in joining the NATO Alliance, so you can understand Mr. Putin’s anxiety rising, since an earlier and vocal protest had concerned Ukraine, Latvia and other Baltic states. The talks have the potential to end badly. Please recall that Russia holds the keys to natural gas to heat and power Europe.
Here is the complication to what had been a mostly Ukrainian issue. Mr. Putin has 175,000 Russians, more than half of them combat forces, around the border to the former Soviet province. The new wrinkle on this one? Helicopters are reported moving to forward positions, with a mild winter delaying the hardening of the soil the Russians would need for mobile operations. Mud is bad for movement. That could push back timing for an invasion to February just to avoid getting troops bogged down.
Russia also faces insurgent operations against the government in Kazakhstan, another former component of the USSR. The indomitable older woman holding an AK-47 is a representation of a large segment of ethnic Russians who live there. For them, the issues are personal. Also at stake is Russia’s major space port, and something equally troubling. The Kazakhs have a biological lab in their capital, Almaty. Some reports indicating the insurgents had occupied it for some time this week. Other reports here indicate DARPA was approached to fund R&D at the lab, similar to the deal with the Wuhan facility. DARPA is said to have turned down the request, but there is no word on whether pathogens at the lab were, or are, secure.
So, like the Footnote, there we are. There are only a couple weeks until the ground in Ukraine hardens along with Mr. Putin’s need to act with forces in the field. Something will happen. Like climate, sometimes the weather is an imperative all its own.
The second flashpoint is China, which is actually a world of troubles. Our traditional but long deferred issue is Taiwan. Old timers naturally have this traditional issue as a primary point, but China’s view now spreads around the world.
Their “Belt and Road” trade initiative is a grand one, intended to rework the global supply chain to its advantage. Some elements would provide access to the Atlantic to Chinese merchant shipping, and of course their growing Navy. Pals who have worked in the region report the Chinese presence in Africa is immense, from the Horn and westward toward the ocean. This outward expansion is largely unmentioned in current news. It is part of something big, potentially long-lasting, and another component of a new and multi-polar world that is markedly different than the long Cold War between Soviet and US blocks. And with more unexpected thorns.
There are some other aspects of interest about China’s place in the world, not all of them under the control of Beijing. Most of the Writer’s Section at Socotra is of the opinion that the impending Olympics in Beijing (04-20 Feb) would forestal military action until they are complete. That would push military action off to the end of next month at the earliest, but there are offers of assistance to the Kazakhs and interest in establishment of a Central Asian Alliance to defend collective interests. Despite a series of provocative aircraft sorties into the Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), there has not been reported buildup of transport bottoms to cross the Taiwan Strait. A recent statement about Taiwanese independence being a tripwire to conflict suggests the status quo could have a little longer to stand at the water’s edge, though the New Year characterized by the symbol of a Swimming Tiger will begin shortly.
If you take a look at the internal Chinese economy, there are other issues. Remember when Japan was going to overwhelm the global market? One of the first indications of Tokyo’s decline in economic power was the collapse of the superheated real estate market. Something similar has already started in China, with its 2nd largest real property-holder Evergrande unable to meet payments. Add to it the demographic impact of the generation-long “one child” policy. Contrary to western notions of gender equity, working males were economic advantages to families and selective retention of babies has caused a huge disparity in the number of male and female children born since the policy was implemented in 1980.
The social effect and consequences of that imbalance have yet to result in visible policy decisions. It is something that needs to be considered in terms of China’s military options. Reports this week suggest Chinese households are starting to hoard food products, so the street view there is that people are expecting trouble.
That is a unifying factor in this week’s report, since the Third Flashpoint is guaranteed. The renewed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks featuring Iran and the P5+1 fizzled. The Monday meeting of the non-Iranian members in Vienna last week produced no declarations. Iran has been belligerent of late, concentrating on “revenge” for the drone killing of General Soliemani. So far there have been unsuccessful drone strikes on facilities in Syria used by the US. The rhetoric on nuclear issues has been similarly fierce, but unlike poking Uncle Sam, Israel has the Begin Doctrine as a guiding principal of first-strike against holders of weapons of mass destruction. Jerusalem has exercised it in Syria and Iraq, and so we can expect action when they deem it necessary.
As usual, there is something interesting here too, since that may already be in progress. The kinetic and espionage campaign against the Iranian program over the last decade includes assassination of six Iranian scientists, wounding another, the wholesale theft of truckloads of Iranian program documents, and penetration and damage to the Iranian cyclotrons through cyber and kinetic attack. The new angle? A 32-foot tall statue of General Soleimani was trashed shortly after being erected, apparently by nationalist Iranians unhappy with theocratic rule. There will be conflict. How it will play, and when, depends entirely on factors outside any external influence.
See? Not a single potential violation of the new Footnote. We did have another slide, but decided to junk it to avoid having to talk to either that young attorney or the HR department. Progress!
Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com