Gentle Readers, the Writers Section is out of sorts this morning. The bitter cold icicle driving south into the Nation’s east coast is implacable. The Lady in Red had her say, predicting a Nor’Easter to roll in over the next few days. More snow? She claims her models indicate it will happen to the I-95 corridor, the major north-south concrete artery a few dozen miles east of Refuge Farm. So there is apprehension, since the icy remnants of Storm “Izzy” are still hard ice on the deck and along the path to the Fire Pit. Which is out of logs. Frantic calls to suppliers have been made, and a last trip to Belmont Farms scheduled for the brief time we will be above freezing today.

So, there is the weather report. But that is hardly all the interesting news. We have been talking about the three flashpoints in the world for months. You know what they are, but in brief, China will host a curious version of a Covid-tinged Winter Olympics in two weeks. That will probably happen despite continuing controversy about spectators, masks and vaccinations. Some talk continues in the JCPOA arena, with Iran blustering and Israel holding off for now. But the Ukraine flashpoint appears to be lurching into new and potentially raw territory.

Could there be a ground war in Europe again? Here is what we know on this frigid week. Our own misgivings on weather are jammed up in cognitive dissonance on international affairs. As a group, we opposed the old Soviet Russia most of our professional lives. Those memories shape part of our response, though today’s situation is profoundly different.

Splash said the words “Pripyet Marshes,” a place we only remember as a group from history lessons about armor operations in a war long ago. A map would have been useful by the Fire Pit, since the other news has an ominous sound to it. On Tuesday, Mr. Putin announced a major military exercise will be conducted in Belarus. Troops will be dispatched from Russia’s Far East to beef up military assets near Ukraine “amid Western fears of a planned invasion.”

(Russian Amphibious ship Minsk enroute the Med? Five other ships are also proceeding in two groups of three combatants).

He also has dispatched a group of six amphibious-capable ships from the Northern Fleet, possibly carrying a combined-arms force capable of landing on another front in the area.

Another piece: The US Administration has added $200 Million in unspecified military aid to Ukraine. Secretary of State Blinken is reported to be in Kiev for talks, for what might be a final coordination for defensive preparations in a ground conflict not seen in seven long decades.

We agree with the idea of providing the Ukrainians with defensive arms as deterrence. One opinion is under review with our Legal Department, since conflict in Europe might have an aspect affecting domestic issues. We will have to wait and see if any mention is permitted. Cognition bias? A lot has changed, and European homes this winter are heated by Russian energy.

It is entirely possible this could break suddenly. Europe is stronger in some regards than it was, and weaker in others. There will an inclination to oppose Russian expansionism. There is a consensus here at the Fire Ring, perhaps tempered by the lack of burnable logs. We hope for peace. And warmth.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com