The Attorney was missing this morning. She was required to attend some proceeding in town, or at least that was the rumor, but naturally the Writer’s Section was uneasy with the possibility of veering into non-compliant discussion. Splash was already concerned.

“I counted twenty-one buzzards in the trees this morning at first light. Now there are only eleven. Something is responsible for the arrival and the departure of that many birds.”

“The Lady in Red on the flatscreen says snow. Or maybe rain. She is not sure. The computer models give it a 50-50.”

“That sounds like what they said about the Gulf War. Is Saddam going to conquer Kuwait? Now they are giving the same odds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

“That is the precise way to say what we actually think, which is “We dunno.”

“Applying precision terms to uncertainty was how we Spooks made our living. Between Intel and the Meteorological staff, we were the only ones who could be wrong half the time and keep our jobs.”

The operators on the staff were skeptical, since they had been the ones who actually had to go and do something about what the weather guessers and Spooks had convinced the policy wonks to decide. Loma started off: “You have to add external factors, like where did half the buzzards go before lunchtime.”

Rocket scowled. “That is like blaming loony energy policies for creating the problem in the first place, and making the Russians responsible for producing all the gas Europe needs. And prying Germany out of the NATO block.”

Melissa frowned and spoke. “Just stop. Remember there are two words to apply. The first is capability. Have the Russians built the capability to do something to Ukraine?”

Splash engaged on that, since he had actually counted large birds and applied aerial identification to unrelated problems. “Sure. National Technical Means appear to reveal a couple hundred thousand troops in place, deployed air defense systems fully deployed, and we are down to wondering about the weather.”

Loma twirled an index finger near his ear. “You mean that old problem about tracked vehicles being able to move on frozen dirt and sinking in mud.”

“This sounds a lot like the discussions of Europe when Germany was a problem a long time ago.”

“I doubt that the buzzards care much about the history part. They are reacting to issues of NOW.”

Melissa tossed her golden hair assertively. “Germany is a problem again. But the buzzards are HERE and NOW. That is like Ukraine’s immediate problem. But even if Russia decides not to act, this isn’t the old world, divided generally down the middle. It is at least tripartite, and there are other interests that could seek to exploit an attention lapse or regional distraction.”

Rocket was on the aerial provocation aspect as part of his legacy career. “Like the PRC flying jets into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone?”

“The last one was 39 jets in formation just this week.”

“That is even more jets than the buzzards on the back pasture.” Splash had been the first to start the count and was determined to apply the numbers to a situation an ocean away. “And we have carrier groups operating in the South China Sea and the Eastern Med with a sudden Russian build up of half a dozen amphibious ships. That is an additional set of trip wires to an uncertain situation.”

Splash walked to the door of the bunk-room and gazed south. “The buzzards are all gone now. That means something.”

DeMille almost got up, but thought better of it. “I will sum it up for you, from an engineering perspective. We have observable evidence that something has changed. Something that has already happened. It may be in response to something the birds can sense that we can’t. They may have reacted to something that already happened we could not ascertain, or be predictive to something else that is going to happen. Like precipitation in solid or liquid form.”

“Which is to say you don’t know and would give it a 50-50.”

“Not exactly. I wouldn’t drive a tank on it to test the theory.”

“So you think it might be 60-40? But which way?”

DeMille smiled. “That is precisely what we don’t know. Unfortunately, given other external factors, we can’t comment without our Attorney present.” There were nods around the circle. And then there was discussion about whether the situation was going to endanger lunch. There was general agreement, without legal precedent or protection, that someone was going to act just to find out.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
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