The word began swirling late yesterday. It was uncertain, as is all the “news” these days. In the version presented and disseminated through the West, it appeared a solution to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia may have lurched to what is possibly a solution that could save life and lessen that chance of use of a weapon of mass destruction.

Splash had returned from a self-imposed brief exile from the Fire Ring to avoid potential censure by our Attorney. He had slept under cover in the shed behind the distillery and appeared to be sober. It being the start of a weekend, the group was languid in their assembly, but relaxed and ready to talk. Our watch-dog attorney, having demonstrated the power of her authority, was inclining not to over press the results of her success.

DeMille was thoughtful as he stood at the apex of men and women. Normally he is prepared to launch into a series of prospective production topics, ones intended to be filled with insight, irony or the pathos of the follies of the human condition. This morning he seemed willing to be open to a discussion of “change” in the world. There is so much in motion, with land invasions of largely civilian nations, moving armored formations, and the folly of enormous errors in judgement by autocratic human leadership.

Splash was naturally first. Being absent from The Farm’s sanitary capabilities overnight, he was unshaven and his hair wildly askew atop an ensemble that reflected the wrinkles of sleep. “So, it’s like this. We have people appearing on international television wearing t-shirts and needing haircuts. They look like they just put down their phones to speak to a couple million people. Times are odd, but it seems like a break-point in traditional fashion.”

Melissa was well attired in a nice peasant top in a crimson theme and gracefully draped practical but elegant slacks. Her blonde locks flowed with delicacy around her neck with an assertive curl at the end and an equally assertive heavy silver-link bhat chain from which dangled an old half dollar with President Kennedy’s face neatly hammered from behind into prominence on her ample bosom. She had obviously spent some time putting herself together to reflect a commitment to civilized behavior. “Some of it is obviously a reflection of the Covid restrictions intended to convey the commonality of our collective sacrifice. Time to get back to normal.”

Her common-sense approach garnered nods of approval even from those who have neither showered nor shaved, and was universal between our legal supervisor, Buck the Emeritus Economist and the rag-tag retired aviation and intelligence communities. Loma was not languid. “Did you hear the French were going to increase the alert status on their boomers? They are asserting their nuclear capability in response to Putin’s threats of potential nuclear strikes on Ukraine.” He gave a barking laugh and frowned.

DeMille had been a nuclear engineer responsible for operating a safe power plant to propel a ballistic missile submarine. It was a peaceful use of the atom to deploy the possibility of its destructive use. “That is a topic that may be useful to explore. The idea of a submarine that can carry atomic-tipped missiles is an interesting one, and not widely understood from a systemic viewpoint. For example, in our time on active duty, the understanding was that French Navy’s ballistic missile carrying subs- the four of them- could carry 16 of their M52 missiles. That is not to say that it is an inventory of 60-odd ballistic missiles. The way it works is that to keep one of the four underway, say the ‘Le Triomphant,’ There would be another, call it ‘Le Vigilant,’ just back from patrol and in long term maintenance and crew rest. Another, say ‘Le Terrible,’ would be in training to certify systems and crew readiness and the fourth boat prepared to relieve the one returning from a 90-day operational patrol. Accelerating training, repair and readiness could enable them to have 32 nuclear missiles ready for response at any given time, since the other two would be confined to dock for necessary maintenance or basic crew training.”

“Yeah,” agreed Loma. “We used to call it the Rule of Fours. To have one aircraft carrier underway there needed to be three others in the cycle of repair and training. We had a force of about a dozen carriers in my time to have the ability to have three steaming around someplace.”

DeMille smiled, since he actually had the crowd thinking about logistics, the part of warfare that might be the most important factor in warfare, and the reason the Russian invasion seems to faltered and provided the means for peace. “So you see the change in dynamics the end of the Cold War produced. The two superpowers maintained a force structure of almost unimaginable size. The ‘Rule of Four’ for Navy has a slightly different but analogous role in the entire force, from Army to Air Force to the Marines. Each with discrete mission specialties backed up with nuclear arsenals of over 4,000 weapons for the Soviet force and a little less for the Yankee one.”

He could see Buck mulling the magnitude of resources required to fund it all. Melissa the idea of bearing children and managing a family while also working full time against a threat so pervasive that she avoided considering it. And the Old Salts remembered what it was like to execute the sort of schedules involved to support it. “Quick poll,” he said. “How many of you actually had something to do with the nukes?”

Most of the right hands around the circle rose, thinking back to what parts of the system they had been part of. Like the Rule of Four, there were components an cycles in Command and Control, security, operations and alerts. DeMille continued. “How many of us actually saw one. A real one?”

The number of hands diminished significantly. “So you see, the notion of Deterrence had its own calculus. In a bi-polar world, the ability to use a thousand nuclear weapons in near simultaneous manner was a persuasive idea to prevent their use. In the case of Mr. Putin’s threat, there has been a change in calculations. Would the United States be prepared to end civilization on a global basis over Ukraine?”

The group rarely showed confusion, but it was apparent under partly cloudy Piedmont skies. “Well, the whole thing? I dunno.” That was Rocket’s contribution as a fighter pilot, whose motto and lifestyle had been ‘Speed-is-Life.’ “But I wondered about the thing about Lil Kim in North Korea having a test of a single big missile he claims could destroy New York. It was a great video of him in a black leather jacket, sunglasses and two generals behind him who looked like they were plated in gold-on-khaki.”

“Precisely. In the case of North Korea, it is a simple equation. Trouble with Kim could mean the loss of a metropolitan area. In the case of the French, it could be a devastating strike on a dozen cities in multiple nations. It is a national capability demonstrated in the Rule of Four.”

“DeMille, what point are you trying to make here? We had things worked out that two players on the world stage could legitimately claim to be able to end that world for everyone. Last figures I saw, the NORKs had less than ten weapons. Using one against America would result in the eradication of everything in their Hermit Kingdom.”

“Your point is well taken, but taking the Rule of Four into account, we now have nuclear situations in which the calculus now needs to be refined. There is a case that a China-US confrontation over Taiwan, for example, might operate under the same Mutually Assured Destruction scenario. I am not sure that is true with Iran and Israel, both with limited but highly destructive capabilities. And the number of powers with the capability to deliver one is rising with different results in a conflict in which ‘limitation’ rather than mass destruction is a factor.”

Melissa frowned. “So where exactly do we stand in all this?”

DeMille sat down, pleased to have started the discussion but unwilling to lead it further. “Russia appears to have realized that poor logistics and training have hampered their ability to knock out Ukraine quickly. Putin violated his own Rule of Force and may have to agree to some settlement that has at least an element of victory to save himself. Like taking the Donbas enclave in the east and withdrawing the rest of his force. But he also confronts a threat to his threat of nuclear escalation from two traditional but now independent vectors. Mr. Putin recognizes that France and Britain each have their own nuclear response capabilities quite independent from the old one poised against America.”

“But doesn’t that suggest that in the new scheme there are factors that suggest someone may feel a need to graphically demonstrate horror.”

“That is the new calculus none of us here completely understand. But it is going to get calculated with new rules. We just don’t know what they are.”

Splash was more concerned with the fact that Saturday’s arrival meant Sunday was looming, and the Distillery was going to be closed, which enforced his own planning, which was a Rule of Two to get through the afternoon. Hopefully with peace.

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