OK- we talked a bit about “Black Swans” earlier this week. The term refers to highy unusual events that may pop up periodically in the world square. We learned about them growing up in the Old American system of education. The Great Depression our generation heard about from our folks would fit in that one. The great American armed conflict we know as “The Civil War” is another. Both were tragic culminations of other events that were allowed to culminate in horrific social events that shaped our world. The flitting shadows of new possibility have been discussed at length over the course of this Weather Report series, and will not come as surprises should they settle down up on us. Still, there is a little unreality associated with the idea that things like “COLD” and “HUNGER” could return to civilized Europe and ravage the population. More surprising is that such a winter would have intentional backing by armed people who desire such events to occur in order to permit other worthy goals.
So, let us just accept the unreality that floats on the gentle currents of air around us, and attempt to define the things that are likely to occur as we transition to Fall. The most extraordinary of them is War. The most visible of these is Ukraine, since it is in progress and people are dying. Has there been progress in opening the Ukrainian port of Odesa? Apparently, some portion of delayed grain shipments has moved and that is a welcome thing for those who depend on that source for bread. But it is also perilous, and only open while those who are fighting permit it. It is in progress now. No additional surprising stimulous is required. Battlefield failures could have direct and immediate consequence and impact. So, that has to ride atop the possibilities for disruption and pain.
Taking a short step back from what is actually unfolding now are the events that can be impacted by those events. Also partially in motion are the American elections. The results of shrill partisan invective, irresponsible financial conduct, and the weaponization of the world’s number one economy could link with global supply chain issues elsewhere. That is the sort of interlocked crisis that could manifest itself immediately in the second largest economy managed by Beijing’s rulers. The short note on that is the history of demographic change- the “One Child” waves and the rest. Something will happen, without question. But China has an election loming as well, and President XI will likely desire that factor to play out before taking action on Taiwan and “One China” as components of a larger global Black Swan experience.
But that is painted out over the months leading to our new year. So how to measure the misery?
Ukraine could go sideways at any moment. The American Election will likely provide surprise and unexpected activity, but with restraints over the months to come. Ditto with Chinese developments and with similar reasons. The Taiwan issues? Allow President Xi to consolidate power and that matter will come to a head.
Continuing contributors to uncertainty? Inflation, energy, cold and hunger.
But the nature and relationship of all them will sequence itself by events that have their own intrinsic times. So that ws the point of this week, even as the lunacy continues on all fronts. California has announced prohibition of gasoline-powered automobilies by 2035. We understand illogical hysteria, and the justification for the religious fervor about the climate. But add that one- the replacement of 95% of vehicles in 13 years with all the attendendent infrastructure- as a disruption that will attach itself to all the other confusion we have engineered to a complex machine that had produced a reliable working world. Many issue like this will alter timelines and urgency on other parts of the coming problem, but for general planning on the road to the 2022 holidays, that is the roadmap ahead. For now, we intend to stumble ahead on the calendar we understand, amplified by the soaring shadows of what we do not.
This could be one of the last best Labor Days coming up. We intend to enjoy it! We are even pretty sure of the timing!
Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
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