We were looking through the archives for economic tipping points after DeMille scowled at us down by the Fire Ring yesterday. The Lady in Red on the flat screen had mentioned we might have the first day of weather that looked a bit like Fall today, though she smiled and said summer would return for a little bit before things really got rolling on seasonal change.
That echoed some of the other news. California has banned the sale of fossil-fuel powered automobiles, starting in 2035. There is a supply chain aspect to the announcement from Governor Newsom that many residents in the Piedmont of Virginia haven’t considered. Our state passed a law mandating our standards for air quality will mimic those passed in Sacramento. Without discussion. There is talk that we may repeal it, since the Californians also noted that state residents should not attempt to charge the small number of electric vehicles on the road out there because the grid is not prepared to accept the new load.
There was some uneasy laughter about the situation when we realized the news and weather had combined into an inadvertent tipping point on our country life-style. Splash had done a search for stories in the archive reflecting previous accounts of impending change. He waved his tablet around from his corner of the circle to reflect the results of his research.
On his screen was one dated from early April of 2005. That is like 17 years ago, and though some of us may have written some of the words, they seem to apply to current events. We couldn’t see the words due to the distance (and motion) of the tablet, so he began to read it back, snatching paragraphs in no particular order.
Apparently the Writer’s Section had been energized about some Presidential papers at the time, which are again an issue about the pile of them found on the floor down at Mar-a-Lago. The note from long ago was about the President’s Daily Brief, or what some of us knew as the “PDB.” It was (and still may be) the flagship publication of the Central Intelligence Agency. It was intended to shape the course of the President’s day.
That version had all sorts of cool stuff, including operational tid-bits of real spy material. The document was partly internal show business, since you have to keep the customer’s attention.
The bulk of the people who actually read the document was much larger, of course, though their version was carefully sanitized, less the cool stuff, before being circulated to the Senior Officials of the government, mostly at the Cabinet Secretary level, even if their mission does not have much to do with National Security.
Some of the articles are necessarily broad in topic, with titles like: “Horses Leave Barn; Open Door Blamed.”
But what breed of horses? That is where the intelligence gets all mixed up with the news. But it is much easier to look at the past. It already happened.
The Cabinet Secretaries that read the PBD used it mostly as a defensive tool, to avoid looking like a moron when the President called and asked what their Department is doing about Tajikistan this morning. No one likes to look like a moron, or not know how to say “Tajikistan.”
Splash laughed about that, since we have no idea which version of which documents were being described by whom. Then he dragged a finger across the glass to swap the text to read. He continued with more ominous words about old tipping points. “The portents tell us we are approaching one of Don Rumsfeld’s tipping-points. He described them as times when the balance of some equation changes, subtly perhaps, and the course of events shifts, channeled in a new direction.”
He put the tablet down on the large rock beside him. “Mr. Rumsfeld was talking about the Iraqi elections held a while ago. He claimed he could see a tipping point coming, and not just about that. That morning he was concerned about a possible conflict with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela over energy, which he saw as part of the masterful strategic game the Chinese are playing on all the continents.”
“He didn’t mention Russian gas and oil, but Europe had just started their renewable energy plan that is going to prove it isn’t actually renewable yet this winter. Back then, the Chinese were bidding to install their telephone systems in Falljua, in Iraq. They were using loss-leader rates, just like the Wal-Mart, supported by their government to ensure that it is their networks that will be in place for the next fifty years. Remember those days? Here were some of the concerns we had more than a decade ago. He picked up the tablet and began to read again:
“If we enter once more into an age of inflation, or some curious hybrid we once knew as “stagflation,” what is the best strategy for personal survival?”
That caused more laughter, since we have been talking about nothing less for months now. The strategy seemed the same as it was then. “Secure a place to live in now-dollars at low interest rates. Lock them in, even if the 30-year note is more expensive. Pay as little as possible in now-dollars, since they will devalue over time. Splurge a little, but watch the interest rates. Act now. Times will not be this smooth again.”
Rocket leaned back on his rock. “OK, that was before the tipping point of 2008, which featured the housing melt-down and what they called the Great Recession. It doesn’t seem that great these days, but we remember when people were getting loans to buy houses they couldn’t possibly afford because it was an issue of social equity.”
“This next exercise seems to be about college degrees in useless subjects. Like the idea that it is fair that people who paid to go to trade school to learn welding or plumbing should chip in to reimburse those who went to school to learn which of the various genders they might be.”
We are generally of the position that we already knew that. But Loma continued his observation. “Tipping points are funny. Sometimes you need a little distance to see just how ridiculous things are as they are actually happening. Or about to happen. But hearing Splash read just a couple of them from just fifteen years ago gives us some perspective.”
“Yeah,” said Loma. “The ability of the smart folks to set us up for fundamental change hasn’t changed a bit. But stand by. They have set us up for something that could tip a lot deeper.”
There was a little laughter at that, but it had a bit of an edge to it.
Copyright 2005 and 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com