(The Weekly Forecast contains news from two large river systems adjusting to Spring. One is just a mile or so east on Rt. 50. The other is across an ocean where the fresh water rejoins the salty seas. Here, we heard that McPherson Square, the little park in front of the Army-Navy Club, has become a homeless campsite. We decided to quit the membership we held onto for nearly thirty years. Spring brings a time of adjustment, you know? “Fixed income slides into inflation’s muddy flow!”)

We are making the run-up to Spring. Normally, it is a little easier that this one. The Big One may or may not have started in Ukraine. There was some earnest discussion about whether the Spring Offensive has actually commenced in Ukraine. We normally do the Weekly Weather Report with the admonition that all the little lines on the slide actually mean something. We normally continue with the words that “they are all going on, and all have consequences worthy of a glance as this week slides inexorably into the past.”

Discussions about America’s leadership are thawing. The New York Times, a bastion of Blue News, launched an assault on the serving Vice President. The claim is that she is not fit for a return to the office she holds, much less the only one higher on the DC Power Pyramid. The Red list includes some interesting turmoil. Across the Atlantic, the first anniversary of ground conflict in Europe marks an apparent decision by Mr. Putin to put the entire Red Army into the fight in Spring, mud or not.

For our part in the struggle, we heard the White House announced a new military aid package for the beleaguered Ukrainians will be presented to the new House majority next week. The NATO states have announced a similar aid package, the goal apparently being to kill as many young men as possible.

We have pals from working days who compile the dozens of sources of information on the fighting in Middle Europe. There is no accurate reporting on changes in territory held, though units are in conflict. If you can imagine fighting building to building in some Eastern cities on the East side of the big river, you have a sense of the essential nature of this conflict. The casualty figures continue to be wildly exaggerated. Each side is claiming ten enemy dead for every casualty suffered on their side.

Exaggerated or not, this marks the start of a new cycle of kinetic violence. Last year, the Russian offensive began on 22 February. The seasonal thaw had not progressed sufficiently for unrestricted movement of armored vehicles, forcing the invaders to remain on the roads. That enabled the Ukrainians to effectively target the invaders, and they flooded agricultural fields to keep the Russians on the roads and vulnerable above the mud.

“Mud Season” is a phrase of note. It links the youth harnessed to seasonal change to ancient tradition of aggression. The ground does not dry sufficiently for unrestricted movement until late May or early June. The information flows contain dramatic claims. This morning, reports suggest 700,000 Russians are about to pour into Ukraine. It could be a swift motion to bring the conflict to a close. It could also slosh over into an Article 5 violation that would bring NATO into a direct role in the war, possibly with bright atomic flashes.

The domestic news contains the same sort of wild variations. The 2024 American election campaign is now in progress. Former UN Ambassador Nicki Haley has announced her candidacy on the GOP side, with continuing noise from the Trump and DeSantis camps. Early in the week there had been speculation of an announcement from the Biden camp about his intention to run for reelection.

There is an interesting field of younger politicians symbolized by the perfect hair candidate from California, Mr. Gavin Newsom. Here on the banks of the Potomac River we have a unique position on both the east and west shores. Local news is attached to national events. Senator Diane Feinstein was bushwhacked yesterday with a comment on her retirement by a reporter who beat her to her announcement.

Another Senator was in the spotlight. He is from Pennsylvania and will apparently serve his decisive term from an ICU bed. The balance of power in the Senate will serve as a regulator for bold action in the House.

The Chairman sent a note down reminding us he had first encountered Senator Feinstein after her election in the mid-1990s, and to treat her service with respect.

We decided to concentrate on the local media: the state of the cherry blossoms on the trees around the Tidal Basin. Like the Ukraine Offensive, there are mixed messages on the vegetation. We are gratified that nature is predicted to take it normal course, and the answer is “not yet.”

That is the parallel between local and international events this morning. Europe this Spring is focused on mud. There is more than mud to deal with here at home. We are pleased to not be dealing with clouds of toxic gas on the Ohio River from train derailments. We live with that sort of thing daily here on the Potomac. Our mud season goes on all year!

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
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