In virtually any situation, from sports to geo-politics, you can usually parse things down to one major actor and a whole bunch of reactors. There may also be spectators, but usually they’re reacting as well.

For the US, as the world’s preeminent great power, maintaining some level of stability requires that we stay in front of any situation, that we act, and essentially force everyone else to react. Like a great ship moving among a fleet of small boats, the great ship goes where it will, and others have to respond.

That is not where we are.

Never mind how we got here – we all know that story has a host of chapters, some that reach far back in time, some to decisions made more than 100 years ago. But what matters is that right now, and for several years, the US is and has been reacting, not acting.

First, there’s the war in Ukraine. Russia is wishing to have its way, the US is preventing it. Russia understands that the only nation that’s preventing it from getting what it wants is the US. If the US were to stop providing arms to Ukraine, the EU could not – and would not – be able to stop Russian efforts.

Then, the Gaza Strip. Hamas – and Hizballah – are engaged with Israel. But this is done through the support and decision making of Iran. And it’s done with an eye to eventually forcing the US out of the Mid East. The US already has an ally, Saudi Arabia, engaged against Iranian proxies in Yemen. And we’re also engaged with Iranian proxies in Syria. In both cases, if the US were to withdraw, the Iranians would get their way. That isn’t the case in Israel, the Israelis can survive without US aid – but it would be a difficult struggle and in the end might well result in an existential case that could lead any leadership in Israel to consider the use of nuclear weapons.

Eastern Asia. China is pressurizing the atmosphere, and with the assistance of North Korea, is ensuring that US forces are not free to focus on a single problem. Rather, we are obliged to honor the threat on the Korean Peninsula, as well as the threat North Korea poses to Japan, even as we work to address the threat China poses to Taiwan. And while the nominal parties involved are Taiwan and the ROK and Japan, China clearly understands that they are “playing against” the US.

And there is South East Asia, where China is pressing on a series of US allies – the Philippines and Singapore and friends – Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, and threatening other, more distant allies – Australia and India. Again, China sees these as a series of proxies, but the real opponent is the US.

That last point is central to the case: Russia, Iran, China, North Korea – are more than well aware that the main player on the other side of the table is the US, and that the proxies they are facing (Ukraine, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syrian Kurds, Taiwan, the ROK, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, India, et al) all massively benefit from US power.

And China is also engaged in other efforts against the US: economic, technological, biological, chemical. Any doubt about that should be put to bed with more than 250,000 Americans killed by fentanyl since 2015, 99% of which has come from China, per Congressional Testimony.

Meanwhile, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran grow closer. They aren’t likely to soon drift apart. Three of them have nuclear weapons and long range missiles. Iran will probably soon have nuclear weapons and already has long range missiles. They may already have warheads, whether they made them on their own or were given them by China. 25 years ago leading think tanks in the US were already publicly suggesting that China had at a minimum provided nuclear weapon design information to Pakistan. Might they have done the same (or more) for Iran?

All of which leaves us where?

First, as our conventional forces are currently constituted, we can’t answer all these problems simultaneously. Which gets us back to President Eisenhower’s concern that trying to do so would lead to a defense budget that would come to dominate the entire society. This was why he ordered the buildup of nuclear forces – to offset the conventional forces that the US would face around the world. We face a similar problem now. So, we need to take another hard look at our nuclear forces.

That involves two major points: we need to modernize our major nuclear forces – the ICBMs and SLBMs – to ensure that they’re not only reliable and are in high state of readiness, but that the world knows that. And, we need to again look at the deploying of other nuclear weapons – call them what you will, theater nuclear weapons, battlefield weapons, tactical nuclear weapons. But what they are, are weapons that would be clearly seen to be not directed at Russian or Chinese “strategic forces.”

Currently, the threadbare “nuclear umbrella” that protects Taiwan, the ROK, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc. consists of those same US ICBMs. To suggest that they will remain the US “umbrella” immediately escalates any confrontation, and forces asking whether the America people wish to trade a US city for a Taiwanese or Korean city. To do so calls into question the credibility of the US “nuclear umbrella.”

Doing so also inevitably raises the specter of Taiwan, the ROK and others building their own nuclear force rather than trusting on the US. That is a less safe world, and one also to be avoided.

Second, the US needs to fix the industrial base and start now. The response from Washington is likely to be the same as it always is: “that won’t work, it will take 5 years. We need an answer now.” What is certain is that if we never start, it will in fact never work. But time and again we have refused to do things because they would require “5 years” and 10, 15 and 20 years later the problem is still not solved, no solution has even been started, and the threat has increased.

Third, and most important, the US needs to recognize that we are in a Cold War, a fighting a series of proxy wars, and we need to call together our allies, together we need to enunciate a clear, credible vision of deterrence and containment of these 4 nations, and then craft a workable strategy. The US and the West today are reacting. If we keep reacting, we will eventually lose. We need to change the deck of cards, we need to start acting.

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
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