Sorry for the length of this piece, but it is intended as a navigational trip down the rapids of the next ten months and to integrate the related legal proceedings that are timed for highest negative impact. New Year, new Games! We re not sure how you are doing. Here in the Writer’s Section on the Patio at Big Pink we have been following the electoral process with interest, humor and apprehension since Mr. Trump came down the escalator in 2015. There have been a series of wild stories to string around all the years since then, and we here confess we are tired of it. We mean no disrespect to whoever the final two show up to be. We do feel it is about time to see what mysteries lie ahead, but neatly divided into monthly assessments of where there could be problem areas.

Before the recent holidays, people were stepping up their protests to include civic disruption on roads, bridges and tunnels and museum artwork. The highly visible protests are intended to help convince their fellow citizens that they had some great ideas in minimizing a galactic trace gas. What we thought would be useful would be to throw all the dates we now of in. monthly calendar to see what is coming at us. We have already had the better part of a year to try to sort it all out, and are eager to see what 2024 brings!

The root of it is the biggest prize on this earth, which at the moment remains the seat at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office in the pale-colored building across the River. You may have heard the name in passing, since the object is a double pedestal partner’s desk made from the oak timbers of the Her Majesty’s ship HMS RESOLUTE. Queen Victoria gifted the desk to President Rutherford B. Hayes. It ha been used by every US president since, with the exception of LBJ, Dick Nixon and Gerald Ford. It has floated to the top again after being used on the Second Floor of the White House, where the presidential offices were located prior to the construction of the West Wing in 1902. In 1945, bathed in the spirit of absolute victory over Germany and Japan, Harry Truman was the first Chief Executive to use a re-modeled Resolute desk, now with the President’s seal carved into a panel at the rear aperture where the POTUS sits in splendid isolation.

We will sadly subject you to the full roll-out this morning and then attempt to manage the ten-months of campaign ahead. It is time to get organized, since we are still reeling with the amount of activity that surrounded the Iowa GOP Caucus earlier this week. Then there are the charges filed against Mr. Trump which have little to do with the Resolute Desk, except to keep one of the presumptive candidates from occupying it again. We thought it would be useful to put the legal stuff in the same list as the electoral just to see what was going on in court while citizens were trying to vote.

There are some puzzles to work out, and some hysteria that will be coming down. Do not for a moment think these things are thrown onto a chalkboard someplace. There are reasons everything is on the board and where on the board things wind up. Those charge against Mr. Trump? There has been plenty of time for the messaging around those matters to sink in. Unfortunately, some of them are moving around, so it is useful to have a masters list to keep track of them, you know

LawFare: The dates for Trump’s upcoming trials on thirty-something indictments appears below, with a cursory account of how they fit with the rest of the primaries, binding and non-binding caucuses leading up to Election Day:

Senate Dems face at least eight undecided incumbent seat in the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body. Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in the 2026 cycle, 23 are Dem-held. In the term starting in 2026, 33 vulnerable seats are held by Democrats. That makes for a a couple tough cycles for Blue voters & even harder if the incumbents for those seats choose not to run. So, the Senate is up for grabs. With a one-set majority, you can feel the possibility that House, Senate and executive office could flip on the next go-around. Or not, depending on how this election is held. We have seen some creative ways to do it lately. Here is the rest of the list. You may wish to keep it for reference!

January, 2024
15 January Iowa GOP PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS RESULTS; Trump 51%, DeSantis 21.2%, Haley 19.1%, Ramaswamy 7.7%. All others less than 1%. Ramaswami drops out, supports Trump “For Long term.” Christie drops out.
16 January: Happening now: Trump appears in D.C. court to make plea for absolute immunity from charges by Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal 2020 election interference investigation. Former president has pled not guilty to four charge, highlighted in gold below. Similar charges against Trump in Georgia where is accused of racketeering in 2020. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges. Last Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals declined Trump’s attempts to throw out a lawsuit filed by E. Jean Carroll for defmtion twenty or thirty years ago. like the confirmation of Justice o one is sure. Trump denied sexually assaulting the former Elle columnist in the 1990s. Trump has argued his denials are protected under the immunity he had in office as president.
18 January. Today? Republican town hall with Nikki Haley and Jake Tapper on CNN (New Hampshire)
23 January New Hampshire GOP primary (Dem Primary non-binding)
31 January Federal Election Commission year-end report due
February 2024
03 February South Carolina Dem Presidential Primary election

06 Feb Nevada Dem Presidential Election- GOP same day, non-binding
08 Feb GOP Presidential and Virgin Island Caucuses
24 Feb GOP South Carolina PrimARY
27 FEB MICHIGAN PRESIDENTIAL PRimary
March 2024
02 March Idaho GOP Presidential Caucus, Michigan & Mississippi GOP convention and Presidential caucuses
03 March District of Columbia GOP Presidential primary (party-run)
04 March North Dakota GOP Presidential Caucus
Lawfare: Federal election Interference Trial
05 March Super Tuesday: States & Territories voting include: Alaska, Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa Dem caucus (Mail), Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah. Vermont Presidential Primary & Virginia GOP Presidential Caucuses
12 March States & Territories voting include: Dems Abroad presidential primary, Georgia, Hawaii Republican presidential caucus, Mississippi, Northern Mariana Islands Democratic primary (party-run) and Washington St.
15 March No. Mariana Islands GOP caucus
16 March: Guam Republican Convention
19 March: States voting: Arizona, Florida (primary) Illinois, Kansas & Ohio.
23 March States voting include: Louisiana GOP PrimARY, MISSOURI DEM PRIMARY (PARTY-RUN)
March 25: Stormy Daniels payments trial

April 2024

02 April: Arkansas, non-Presidential run-off, Connecticut, Delaware, Mississippi primary, New York, Rhode Island && Wisconsin
Run-off elections held in Arkansas and Mississippi if necessary only.
06 April Alaska DEms (party only) hawaii Dem primary (Party Only), n. dakota dem (Party-only)
13 april Wyoming dem presidential Caucus
16 April: Alabama non-presidential primary runoff (if necESSARY.)
18 April WYOMING GOP CONVENTION
21 APRIL PUERTO RICO GOP PRIMARY
23 APRIL PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY
28 PUERTO RICO DEM PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

May 2024
01 MAY NEW MEXICO GOP SELECTS UNBOUND DELEGATES
04 MAY MISSOURI GOP CONVENTION
07 MAY INDIANA PRIMARY ELECTION
14 MAY: ELECTIONS IN: Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. North Carolina nonpresidential runoffs will be held on this date if there are federal races for which no candidate received more than 30% of the vote in the March primary. If there are no runoffs in federal races, runoffs for state elections will be held on April 23 instead.
18 MAY MONTANA GOP CONVENTION
May 20: Mar-a-Lago classified docs trial
21 MAY PRIMARIES: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon DEM PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
23 MAY IDAHO DEM PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS, TEXAS GOP CONVENTION (TO 25 MAY)
25 MAY OREGON GOP CONVENTION
28 MAY, TEXAS NON-PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RUN-OFF

JUNE 2024
04 June 2024 States holding elections include: DC, Iowa (state), Montana Dem & GOP, NON-BINDING. New Jersey Dem presidential primary (GOP non-binding), New Mexico Dem primary, (GOP is non-binding), S. Dakota Dem presidential primary, R non-binding).
06 JUNE: Anniversary of D-Day Invasion
08 JUNE: US VIRGIN ISLANDS & GUAM DEM PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES
11 JUNE: MAINE, NEVADA, NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA- NON-PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES.
18 JUNE NON-PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: Georgia (runoff), Oklahoma and Virginia. Georgia runoff to be held if no majority in the May primary.
25 June NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: Colorado, New York, South Carolina (runoff) & Utah. South Carolina runoff will be held if no majority in the June 11 primary.

JULY 2024 Start of Summer Slow Spot
July 15-18 2024: GOP NATIONAL CONVENTION IN MILWAUKEE
30 JULY: S. DAKOTA: NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RUNOFF

AUGUST 20024

01 AUGUST: TENNESSEE: NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION
August 5: Georgia election interference Trial
06 AUGUST: ARIZONA KANSAS, MICHIGAN, MISSOURI & WASHINGTON
10 AUGUST: HAWAII: NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION
13 AUGUST NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: CONN, MINN, VT & WISC
AUGUST 19-22 DEM NATIONAL CONVENTION, CHICAGO
20 AUGUST: ALASKA, FLORIDA & WYOMING Primaries
27 AUGUST OKLAHOMA NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RUNOFF

SEPTEMBER 2024

16 SEPTEMBER: PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE AT TEXAS STATE U/SAN MARCOS, TX
10 SEPTEMBER: NONPRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: DELAWARE, NEW HAMPSHIRE, RHODE ISLAND
25 SEPTEMBER: VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TO BE HELD AT LAYFAYETTE COLLEGE, EASTON, PA
October 2024
01 OCTOBER GENERAL ELECTION PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, VSU, PETERSBURG, VA
09 OCTOBER GENERAL ELECTION PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, U-U, SALT LAKE CITY, UT
NOVEMBER 2024

TUESDAY, 05 NOVEMBER ELECTION DAY!

Campaign goal: Tie up Trump at a time he should be spending time and money campaigning. Some (or possibly all) of these cases will be delayed for one reason or another, which means that come November, Trump could still be embroiled in legal troubles. There are several possible scenarios, of course and we are only ten months out from the election.

What could happen? There are three distinct branches, each with a large number of what the Army used to call “Sequels,” or the path of events on which we are thrown based on what branch of events occurs. At present, the three leading possibilities include:

1. All of the cases have been disposed, and Trump is free to go on with his life (unlikely).

2. Trump loses one or more cases and is sentenced to jail time just in time for the election (possible).

3. Trump is kicked off the ballot in key states (also possible).

Both parties are working hard to support “yes” and “no” for each of the possible outcomes. If you don’t think both are working hard on this years series of outcomes, we will try to keep you posted. If you haven’t noticed, if the first and third options happen, we haven’t been paying attention. We do not know if this is handy or not. But it is a sketch pad for the electoral check-list and the interplay of the LawFare campaign against former President Trump. As they say in some corners of the campaign offices, the punishment is not justice, it is the expensive and elongated process of how it is imposed, apparently on political opposition figures.

That is a new feature of Lawfare, and one of the reasons one of the candidates cannot keep their legal team. Dragging those attorneys through the mud with a goal of disbarring them is part of the entertainment, you know?.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com