Morning, Gentle Readers! Let’s get the analytic bit out of the way first: “All this stuff is going on!”

The big news is that if you slogged through yesterday’s long day of blather, the citizens of three states cast their primary votes, Shortly after the polls closed, the two major-party nominees were presumptively selected based on delegate counts. They are Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump. Since the Conventions that will certify that status are still months away, this will make 2024 the loooongest General Election campaign in our nation’s history.

Or maybe it is the first of the post-Republic phase of it.

That matter is one of those under debate, but context may help. Our little group has never observed rhetoric of the sort being trotted out by leaders and followers of both parties. The fight for the summer will be over VP candidates, which in the case of one party may mean the individual they actually will be running for the next full Presidential term.

We don’t recall this level of emotion about what should be rational and well-debated policy decisions. Instead, we are warned about legions of malicious religious Crusaders and Nazis in rural areas, neither of which groups have actually been observed.

We will have months to discuss that issue, with Congressional hearings yesterday focused on Mr. Biden’s cognitive state, with some alleging he is in the best condition in a half century and others claiming assisted living on Pennsylvania Avenue should be an alternative.

You can bounce around the columns for some other aspects of the global carnival. Our personal favorite, being writers, was the DoJ response to Rep. Jordan’s FOIA request for information on DEI hiring in the BATF- the Bureau of Alcohol-Tobacco-Firearms and Explosives. We generally are in favor of the responsible use of all of those items, but the Bureau’s response exemplified the characteristics on how our new-style government efficiency works.

BATF was 22 months late on the response, and helpfully “redacted’ in black marker every line on 318 pages. Revealing anything that could compromise “Sources and Methods” to Congress is apparently now inappropriate.

The President’s budget was also rolled out this week. We sympathize for the confusion, since only half of the appropriations bills for the fiscal year we are already done with were just passed last Friday. That would be FY-24, so discussions of FY-25 are keeping everyone on their toes. One of the highlights for the future was a ten-year forecast with a trillion dollars of deficit added each year.

That would bring us to a National Debt of nearly $50 Trillion Dollars by 2034.

We think that might be “unsustainable,” since it will be the greatest percentage of debt measured against Gross Domestic product (GDP) since the Greatest Generation paid off World War Two.
The other part of the budget-speak aphorism is that “what is unsustainable cannot be sustained,” If that is true, we are likely to be in for some national excitement when necessary things cease to function. We will not get started on the charities and non-Government organizations showered with cash for disbursement to worthy causes.

We believe in them and have contributed to some in the past. But they now appear to have an interesting new role as money-laundering organizations for activities that would never be passed in Congress if they actually discussed.

The pier being constructed in Gaza to provide relief to Palestinians is another in the portfolio of improbable activities. DoD spokespeople say there will be ‘no boots on the ground!’ although there will be two thousand US boots (two per soldier) on the steel above the water that waves the beach.

Adding to excitement, the Navy will not be orchestrating the sea-based operation. The Army is dispatching the ship. There could be areas of the plan that are somewhat weak, depending on the hospitality of those ashore.

Leaks from NATO discussions also provoked controversy, since the German speakers on the calls allege US & UK “specialists” are on the ground in UKR providing technical know-how for the sophisticated weapons we have provided them. Both are potential problem areas.

On the ground there, things are a little squishy. The Mud Season will extend possibly to early May, restricting mobility. The Russians are using All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) since they are lighter in weight and move better than tanks in the muck. They are also less vulnerable to anti-armor mines that have been planted everywhere.

CIA Director Burns says that without provision of additional weapons from NATO, the Ukrainians will continue to be pushed back. That is a euphemism for “losing,” so it could provoke dramatic developments.

We may (someday) call this the initial Post-Republic phase of our history. It will certainly be the most imaged, recorded and forwarded period in human history. We don’t know how many ‘likes” it will get, though…

In any event, some of the die is cast.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com