Item in brief: Iran attack on Israel likely within Two Weeks.
Massive country-wide rocket and air strikes expected with land incidents on/around Golan Heights possible. Highest point of vulnerability after sunset on 12 August though activity near onset possible for effect.
Validity: High generally, though not actionable by private citizens. Reasons for the alert is to assist situational awareness on potential social impact of civil disruptions.
Justification: Help moderate response to messaging streams or other disruptions that could occur.
That was the news. It is unlike any we have seen in a long time. Comments and justification for the short blurb follow.
It is useful to have smart people in the crowd of Salts who are still in electronic comms. On our shared background in crisis management and current affairs had some of us in fairly high alert over recent developments in the region that straddles water both east and west.
The recent escalation of intra-communal violence in which some of we were called to assist. So there is a personal-level interest in previous events and players. The (presumably) Mossad-sponsored bombing that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, response was both expected and declared by Iran. The public declaration emphasizes the importance and probable size of that coming operation.
The Israeli attack is a reflection of their experience in the conflict with Hamas. That was the third in a succession of leadership attacks on specific individuals in the Hamas hierarchy and a direct message to the Iranian leadership about where it occurred.
So, early reporting from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei contained a threat of dramatic response and that caused a bit of a tizzy about the nature of the response he was promising. We have seen a succession of events which the message involved in the strike is the actual weapon being delivered. Days of religious symbolism add a planning factor in assessing the campaign. There had been concern that an immediate military response by Iran was possible, though not sure how that might be accomplished except by an escalation of weapon type, along the HE-Chem-Bio-Atom spectrum.
We got a note this afternoon that may provide some insight and situational awareness. Mid-August marks the observance of the Jewish tradition fasting and prayer- Tisha B’av- on 12-13 August. it is observed with great reverence over the destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem and major cross-religious significance in basic war aims.
A likely Iranian military operation of scale may require a few days for implementation of logistics support even if previously planned. If confined to conventional arms, it will likely be delivered by both rockets and air delivered missiles and bombs. Ground action in the north along the coast to the disputed Golan Heights is also likely and could involve large scale ground operations.
There are US forces in units and detachments all around the region and a dozen Navy ships. We could be very much in the middle of something if the Houthis attempt to shut down the Suez Canal. So, in view of recent demonstrations here in DC and other locations, it is something to be aware of.
Our personal preps? A trip to food and beverage establishments to stock up over the weekend. Other necessary consumables subject to modest disruption are worth a quick stock-up. And join us in the hope that somehow there is a way to tamp down the fevers raging.
– Vic