The 116th Congress will sit on January 3rd 2019. Maybe we should consider what the new Congress needs to address.

The prime responsibility of Congress, in practical terms, is to fund the government. Congress passes laws to direct – in general terms – what the executive branch does, and then provides the money to carry out those tasks.

It’s worth noting that most Congressional activities don’t effect on a day-to-day basis nearly 80% of the federal bureaucracy, or the huge entitlement programs that provide food, housing and medical care to the poor and under-privileged. Congress spends the vast bulk of its time focusing on less than a quarter of the federal budget, specifically, the Defense budget.

As for the rest, if Congress simply failed to show up for work except to pass a resolution to extend the federal deficit, under existing laws much of the executive bureaucracy would simply grind on, taxes would be collected, money would be borrowed, and the various programs in Health and Human Services, Agriculture, HUD, etc. would continue to be funded and would continue to perform, with some minor variances.

As for our debt, since the Cold War ended our national debt has grown by $16 trillion. Cumulative national security spending since 1991 is on the order of $7 or $8 trillion. You could probably fat-finger that to $10 trillion. But that would still leave $6 trillion in debt growth – for zero defense spending for more than a quarter century. Nor would this materially impact the larger debt problem: unfunded annuities guaranteed by the Government (more than $40 trillion, and potentially far more – some estimates place that figure at more than $200 trillion).

And if you run the numbers out over time the entitlements and pay slices continue to grow faster than anything else.

Within 45 years just three entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will consume some 20% of the entire US GDP – that is, the same slice of the economy that now is the entire federal government. Medicare alone will reach at least 10% of GDP. There will be no money left for anything else.

But, given their track record of the last 100 years, it’s doubtful Congress will address either entitlement reform or deficits. Perhaps the President will – a tip of the hat if he’s successful. But, suffice it to say, Congressional blaming of DOD for deficits has no meaningful basis.

Nor has defense procurement become inordinately more expensive. While there’s rightly some wailing and gnashing of teeth, consider the aircraft carrier USS Ford (which granted has other issues), which cost about $13 billion. That equates to a national investment of about 2/3rds of 1/10thof 1% of GDP. That same investment considered in 1960 would equate to about $360 million. USS Kitty Hawk and USS Constellation – both launched in 1960 – were procured for about $400 million each. In short, in terms of national investment, they were more expensive than USS Ford.

As Congress will spend the bulk its time debating it, consider the DOD budget: $690 billion. Of that, $265 billion is for personnel (active duty and civilian). As Congress isn’t going to cut pay, nor seriously cut any more end strength, that leaves only 2/3rds of the DOD budget to debate. But… There’s always a but…

But the problem is getting worse.

In the next 10 years personnel costs will, if our personnel models are left unchanged, “consume” our Defense budget. One estimate is that as early as 2024 – 5 budget years away – total personnel costs plus Operations and Maintenance (“O&M”) will consume 100% of the projected DOD budget, leaving no funds for research & development, or procurement, or military construction. And no matter what, it’s extremely unlikely that Congress will increase the DOD budget enough to compensate for this cost growth.

The problem is simply stated – but far from simple: personnel costs must be reduced. More to the point, the All Volunteer Force – as the DOD has developed it, is unaffordable. We need a new manpower model that can be sustained into the indefinite future. Congress needs to tackle that, and tackle it now.

When they get that fixed maybe they can look at entitlement reform and the debt…

Copyright 2018 Arrias
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