“Thrice armed is he who has a quarrel just,
But four times is he who gets his blow in fust”

So went a little piece of doggerel in the early days of World War I (actually from an American several decades earlier) as the Royal Navy and the German Navy squared off against each other.

On May 28th John Bolton commented that the attacks – several weeks ago now – on 4 different tankers in and near the Persian Gulf were from Iranian mines.

There are all sorts of mines, but the specifics don’t really matter much; it has long been understood that using naval mines in waters other than your own constitutes an act of war; these ships were damaged while in Fujairah, in the UAE.

But, perhaps Tehran realizes they’ve pushed too far. In the past week Ayatollah Khamenei blamed “Iran’s leaders” for the current state of affairs, for the now-suspended international nuclear agreement, and for a host of the nation’s ills.

This of course is laughable; the Ayatollah is the nation’s leader. He wields unquestioned authority and, through his various deputies and minions, controls virtually every official facet of Iranian power. And has for 3 decades.

Perhaps, he’s identifying fall guys for the current crisis, setting the stage in case someone needs to be thrown under the bus.

That doesn’t really change the reality that Iran is at odds with most of the world, in particular most of the Islamic world. As leader of Shia Iran, Khamenei sits on top of Islam’s great schism.

In 632AD Mohammed died and so began a power struggle; that civil war split in two the Islamic world. Today 12% of Muslims – Shias – believe the rightful successor was Mohammed’s cousin and son-in-law Ali ibn Abu Talib. The majority of Muslims – Sunnis – believe the rightful successor was Abu Bakr, Mohammed’s father-in-law.

Iran, with 82 million people, 99% of whom are Shia, is home to half the world’s Shia, and the religious rulers of Iran consider themselves to be the rightful leaders – religious and political – of not simply all Shia, but all Muslims.

Sunnis consider Shiism to be a heresy. This schism remains the great fault line that runs through the Islamic world, justifying to Iran’s leader all their efforts to spread their influence; into Iraq and Syria, and elsewhere. But, of course, Iran’s Shia beliefs can’t justify attacking four oil tankers in Fujairah; or supporting Houthi insurgents in Yemen; or supporting Hizballah; or Iranian Quds forces in Syria and Iraq; (all of which pre-dates the Trump administration).

And so…

In response to reports that Iran was preparing to attack US elements and interests in the Middle East, President Trump has ordered additional forces into the region; including an aircraft carrier, B-52s, Patriot missiles, more Marines and amphibious support ships, F-35’s, and more support personnel.

The risks are obvious. But, as with China, things are already bad, and they were -until recently – headed in the wrong direction. The Ayatollah has charted a course which brings Iran into conflict with much of the Middle East, and with US interests. As with China, there’s a possibility the situation will get worse. But the situation will definitely get worse if we do nothing. We’re already the proverbial frog in the pot of water; the stove is on and it’s going to get warmer.

Maintaining the status quo – with Iran or China – will yield very negative consequences in the long run. We needed to do something, to offset a quarter century of bad decisions.

The Mullahs in Tehran are never going to “get along” with the US. They’ll try to manipulate any US or Western leaders willing to turn a blind eye to their actions, who offer appeasement as their policy response to such activities; or they’ll attempt to bluster and bluff. Either way, there will be confrontations.

It’s always preferable to deter war; these deployments serve that goal. That the Ayatollah is casting aspersions at senior figureheads in his government may be a good signal, a hint that he recognizes both that things aren’t quite right and that one way to avoid war is to the blame on somebody; perhaps.

But the Mullahs in Tehran need to understand: they may get in the first blow. They may even cause significant damage to one or more US ships. But if they did, it would to a certainty be the death of their navy.

Copyright 2019 Arrias
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