So, President Trump didn’t strike Iran. (Although reporting now suggests that he did attack Iran – cyber attacks on both the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and on their air defense systems.) In any case, this isn’t the first time a President has recalled a strike, nor will it be the last. We all may have viscerally wanted to strike Iran, but if the cyber attack report is correct, then maybe that’s just right – for now.

Meanwhile, the press is pinging around like a well hit 3-wood in a tile bathroom: what the President did was horrible; he sent a signal of weakness to Tehran; he showed lack of resolve to not only Tehran but Moscow and Beijing – who will now capitalize on it. Really, behind all the bluster Trump is just a cowardly blowhard, etc., etc., etc.
Or, maybe this is Trump sticking to campaign promises that he wasn’t going to go around starting wars? And maybe it really is exactly what he said: he decided that events to date simply are not worth killing 150 Iranians.

Add that on top of a possible cyber attack and this looks completely different, both to the Mullahs (“We don’t need to drop bombs to break your weapons”), and to the average Iranian (“We have no quarrel with you, nor do we wish to kill any Iranians; our issues are with your leaders.”)
Commentary in the press criticizing how Mr. Trump went about cancelling the attack are also almost certainly wrong; any operation briefed to a senior commander or the President includes estimates of casualties – military and civilian; such figures are de rigueur and have been for years. Perhaps Mr. Trump received word of the successful cyber attack as the strike was launching and then reconsidered; taking a second look at the collateral casualty figures changed his mind. However it happened, the specifics are more or less meaningless; the system as it stands is supposed to give the President – any President – that flexibility. That he used it (and that it worked) is simply part of the overall capability. The real questions is: What now?

Now, we wait. And why not?

Consider that President Obama went into Libya and 8 years later that country is still a mess. President Obama drew a definite “red line” with Syria on the use of chemical weapons, and yet when Assad used them, he didn’t act. Much later he did act and we’re still in Syria. And Assad is still president of Syria. ISIS is gone but we’re still there. Note too, that when there was an indication that Syria had again used chemical weapons, Trump acted.

And there was no red line crossed here. There is no dead or captured US pilot; that’s one of the reasons these drones are so handy – if someone shoots one down you have a clear “mark” on the wall, but you aren’t forced into specific responses.

Perhaps Iran will now see the error of their ways – though I doubt it. Or, Iran will wait a few days to weeks and do something else. If that happens, one supposes Mr. Trump will whack them – hard. Having been given a clear chance to step back from the brink Iran will have painted themselves further into a corner.

Meanwhile, have we lost anything?

Probably not. You can argue we lost face because we didn’t strike, but doesn’t cyber count? And Trump only said that what Iran had done (shoot down the drone) was a big mistake. He didn’t say: “And now I’ll sink your navy,” or some such thing.

And, the US still has the option to strike. No line was drawn in the sand, the JICPOA remains cancelled, the embargo remains in place, Iran’s economy continues to decay, and Iran by its own actions is losing political ground around the globe.

Napoleon was fond of saying that: “You should never interfere while the enemy is busy making a mistake.” Indeed. The Iranians have made a long string of mistakes; they continue to make mistakes. For whatever reason Trump has not put any rounds down range, he hasn’t placed any US Airmen or Marines or Sailors at risk, he hasn’t killed anyone and he retains all his options. And Tehran continues making bad decisions. Perhaps how we got here isn’t terribly important. Here we are; let’s wait a bit and see if the Iranians continue to make mistakes.

Copyright 2019 Arrias
www.vicsotcora.com