Editor’s Note: Arrias is a distinguished Nay veteran, and has been to this rodeo before in his distinguished career. His views do not necessarily reflect those of Socotra House LLC management, nor that of the Hong Kong Fireworks Co, Ltd.

Happy May Day!

– Vic

01 May 2017

A Bigger US Fleet

President Trump wants to expand the Navy to 355 ships. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would cost $27 billion more per year. The professional hand-ringers are already working themselves into a lather, the naysayers warn we can’t afford it, and cynics sneer that 355 ships won’t really change anything.

Hmmmm…

Some numbers:

The DOD will spend about $600 billion this year, not including specific appropriations for wars in Afghanistan, northern Iraq and Syria, and elsewhere (Yemen, Somalia, etc.) US GDP for 2016 was about $19 trillion, so $600 Billion works out to 3.2%. The Navy will receive $165 Billion (0.85% of GDP). Increasing the Navy budget by $27 billion per year would bring Naval spending up to 1% of GDP; overall we’d still be spending less than 4% of GDP on national security.

For some perspective, in 1984, the height of the Reagan defense buildup, the US spent $430 billion on defense (5.8% of GDP), $99 billion on the Navy (1.3% of GDP).

What do we need these ships for? The Navy mission is to protect the nation’s interests and, outside of actual combat, engage in what’s called “strategic presence,” shaping the international geo-political environment to benefit our interests; the Navy does this by establishing a forward presence, the more extensive and more capable the fleet, and the more persistent the presence, the more effective the shaping. Done properly, strategic presence not only protects and promotes national interests, it does so peacefully.

Problems arise when another great power builds a navy and engages in its own strategic shaping, attempting to change the international scene to support their national interests. This is the situation we now find ourselves in vis-à-vis China.

China is expanding its navy at a prodigious rate; their navy now has more combatants than the US Navy. China’s navy will continue to expand and reportedly has a target size in excess of 500 ships, to include – within the next 10 years – at least two more aircraft carriers (for a total of 4).

What can 355 ships do against 500 that we can’t do with 275? First, the goal isn’t to match China’s navy ship for ship; our fleet is different than theirs, and arguably, more capable. And the goal is to deter war. But strategic presence does require presence, the more the better. More ships means more presence, and we’re also buying improved combat capability, all of which strengthens the resolve of our allies, and translates directly into deterring potential adversaries. As Reagan observed, no one was ever attacked for being too strong.

Could this be done by other means? Not without a great deal more effort and expense. A guided missile cruiser is easily stationed off a hostile coast, positioned to engage a ballistic missile (if the President directs), without seeking anyone’s approval. And if the threat goes away, the ship is easily moved; a land-based system must be negotiated in, and negotiated out.

From an accounting perspective, this larger fleet will mean 1 or 2 more carrier deployments each year, several more countries provided ballistic missile defense by a US destroyer, and another 1 or 2 Marine Expeditionary Units deployments each year.

But, more importantly, the issue isn’t, as some would suggest, that there’s a right number versus a wrong number.

Under President Reagan the fleet grew to almost 600 ships. That was enough to, in concert with other forces, deter war and bring a peaceful end to the Cold War.

Now we face China, with its large and growing navy; a nuclear-armed North Korea; a possible nuclear Iran; and Russia still armed to the teeth. And there is the issue of Al Qaeda, ISIS, other terrorist organizations around the world and whatever comes next in the “war on terror.” None of them really wish us well.

What a larger fleet really means is the United States intends to protects its interests, and protect its friends and allies. It means the US is willing to make the investment to ensure the seas remain free – for our shipping and that of our friends. It means the US is paying attention. Is 355 the magic number? We won’t know until we get there. But Mr. Trump has signaled that he’s willing to defend our interests. That may eventually require more than 355 ships. Mr. Trump is saying that we must and will do whatever it takes to defend US interests.

Copyright 2017 Arrias
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