Over the past four months everyone has become an expert on the failings of the Russian army, air force and navy. In particular, it is well known that Russian equipment is junk, their leadership is nearly worthless, the troops don’t get enough training and the morale is so bad that whole units refuse to fight.

Meanwhile, over on the Ukrainian side the equipment is awesome (best the West can provide), the leadership is dynamic and charismatic, the troops are clever, innovative, and fearless patriots, and morale couldn’t possibly be higher.

Sure.

This is not to criticize the Ukrainian government. If I were in their shoes I would have my sharpest guys pounding out the same sort of copy for the press. I can see them now, hot room, the fan blowing clouds of cigarette smoke, ties pulled down, shirt sleeves rolled up, flip felt hats cocked back on their heads, unfiltered Camels hanging from their lips, sipping cold, 12-hour-old coffee, as they pound away on their Royal portable typewriters…

But what I really don’t expect is that sort of thing out of the Pentagon or the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense (MODUK).

The recurring theme is that the Russians are expending themselves, using all their troops and all their weapons and they won’t be able to do anything after Mariupol falls. After Severodonetsk falls. After Lysychansk falls? MODUK reports in previous wars were known for their controlled, understated clarity. When they had little to say, they said little. When it was clear that they should be circumspect, they were circumspect.

And it is understood by one and all that there will be times that telling the whole truth would, essentially, aid the enemy. So, you don’t. You say: “No comment.”

The US was actually very good at this at times in the past, though we’ve had our failings. But if you want a good example how to do this, take a look at the daily Pentagon reports during the Gulf War (1991). There was little hyperbole, and the prime briefer, RADM Mike McConnell, was clear, knowledgeable, accurate and articulate.

On the other hand, there was a comment the other day from the Pentagon that the Russian army was suffering from horrific morale and they were suffering from low readiness and poor recruiting and they basically sounded like the Italian army in Abyssinia. And this was given out as the Ukrainians were withdrawing from Severodonetsk. Said differently, the army with the poorest morale in living memory just beat the Ukrainians. I wonder how the Ukrainian soldiers felt about that?

There are three major reasons why this sort of thing is taking place (there are others, but these three are the most likely). They are not mutually exclusive, and all could be in part true at the same time:

The first is simple: the folks who are writing these assessments and making these statements are so committed to Ukraine that their concern for Ukraine has clouded their judgment. This sort of thing – confirmation bias is the 25 cent term to describe it – is fairly common, though it is, of course denied by all the professionals; it never happens to them. (It certainly has NEVER happened to me…)

The second is simple incompetence; someone reads a well written report that says such and such and they report it without really thinking it through.

The third is that it’s deliberate, either because, as in the case of Ukraine, the individual speaking doesn’t want to report negative news about Ukraine as he is afraid that such news would discourage readers and thereby hurt support for Ukraine. Or, it might be deliberate because the reporter is, in fact, trying to mislead the reader to build a case for others – the EU and the US – to provide more and different aid to Ukraine.

I can support the Ukrainians (I do), and think that what Putin has done is evil (I do). But that doesn’t mean I give my government a carte blanche to spin tales, whether through incompetence or to deliberately mislead so that they can do what they will.

Here’s the thing: if the Russians were as messed up as some of the reporting now suggests, the war would be over before dinner.

Yet everyone is saying this war could last for a year or more. The government in Kiev has said, as recently as yesterday afternoon, that they hope to be able to start an offensive in August, but even then warn that the war will last for months after that and they certainly aren’t giving forecasts of when this will be over. They have already made statements of their concern that Europeans will become fatigued with the war.

Point is, this war is going to last a while more and that means that folks who are looking at this from close up understand that the Russians are not beaten yet. One could argue, as of today, that the Russians are winning. So, all the tales of abysmal Russian morale and units that are on the verge of mutiny, commentary about the horrors of Russian tank design, etc., etc., etc. – take them with a few grains of salt.

And for the folks at the Pentagon, and MODUK, and anyone else who, for whatever reason are spinning these tales, remember that telling tales invariably comes back to bite you. In particular, consider the damage done to Ukraine if by telling a tale you cover up some sort of ghastly mistake. Some things need to see the light of day immediately. Such things never get better with age.

So, try to be clear, knowledgeable and accurate and leave tall tales to others.

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