(Vigilant Chinese monitor PRC claims in the South China Sea. Image by artist Sun Ying.)

I got up, marveling that I could stand briefly unassisted and make the bed. The start to Day 32 of recuperation seems like a good one.

What did you think about Arizona and the Supreme Court? It seems like a muddle. The Governor claims victory, the Administration claims victory, and the Supremes all issued their own opinions of the dreaded immigration law.

The Justices also announced a change to their travel plans, not departing the heroic marble hall in which they labor until Friday. I suppose that means Thursday for the last shoe of this judicial session to drop, and they will issue what I firmly expect to be their muddled opinion on the health care thing. So, let’s put that aside for the moment.

I have been watching the fires in Colorado with more than a little personal interest, wondering idly if there was any connection between arson and terror. A pal with deep connections to Homeland Security is concerned about a thing called “attribution,” which in fire and cyberspace is an exceptionally hard item to pin on anyone specifically.

That is not the case for things elsewhere. I dropped into the wheelchair and rolled up to the laptop and the improvised work-station on the dining table. The first thing I saw was the last century of human activity captured in newsreel clips. Here is the link, if you are feeling frisky this morning. There is plenty to contemplate there, particularly if you remember a bit about almost half of it.

The wars. I remember the long pax that followed the defeat in SE Asia- except, there wasn’t one. I saw the ruins of a building in Beirut where a shipmate died, and the Khmer Rouge, and all those nasty little conflicts we only vaguely recall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Xxh-sS8Qoco

There seemed to be a war a year, some big and some small. I guess that is what got me going when I saw a post from our China group. The old Asia hands are quite agitated at the moment over the astonishing claims of the Middle Kingdom on the South China Sea. I normally scroll through the press stories fairly quickly, since I am on information overload. But this news caught me up short:

“The Chinese government raised the administrative status of the Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha islands in the South China Sea after approving the establishment of the prefectural-level city of Sansha to administer the three island groups and their surrounding waters…”

I had to go to the map to check it out and was stunned. I mean, there is a lot to be stunned about, like how the last century dumped us here on the beach where we stand, but here is the reality of the slow-bubbling conflict in a place that my 7th Fleet buddies considered our back yard:

The map is courtesy of the Voice of America. The red line is the one you might want to consider for a moment. The PRC is claiming- apparently with a straight face- territorial waters within a cannon-shot of Malaysia, and the islands they have designated as theirs are claimed also by the Philippines, Vietnam, and a fisherman who happens to live in the Spratleys.

My pal Boats is pretty agitated, too. So far this has been a matter for Ms Clinton at State and our military plenipotentiary at USPACOM, not to mention our trusty 7TH Fleet sailors. Boats comes at this from a Coast Guard and Homeland Security aspect, funneled through the perspective of Admiralty law about the doctrine of “innocent passage.”

He is alarmed at what is going on. There has been a low-level conflict in progress for weeks now with Chinese proxy merchant and fishing boats versus Philippine patrol boats, fishermen and patrol aircraft.

His “American Admiralty Books” blog is a sample of what people are thinking about.

I will gist it for you, since we are all busy: “Rear Admiral Yin Zhou of the People’s Liberation Army- Navy (PLAN) speaks out of both sides of his mouth in the ongoing controversy between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal area. He tells the Chinese News Service (CNS) that Chinese Troops should board even Philippine Government, as well as fishing vessels in the area of the recent stand off, but “maintain restraint, not force, not hurt people” when boarding vessels in the area.” He then tells the Communist Party’s “People’s daily that the PLAN “will not hesitate to use deadly force against its enemies’.”

Deadly force? It is a recipe for trouble. There is a bunch of thought-provoking material in the blog that looks at the legal basis for claims, and the simmering conflict within 123 to 137 miles from the Philippine baseline claim from the lovely island of Luzon.

The area under dispute has been shown on navigation charts compiled by English and Spanish-speaking maritime powers as Philippine waters since 1734, updated in 1808, 1820, and 1939.

No charts identify names (like Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha) until the eve of the defeat of the Nationalists on Mainland China, which makes me curious why the ROC on Taiwan doesn’t claim the area, too.

But never mind. The Chinese claims are based on the discovery of the area by Chinese Astronomer and Explorer Guo Shoujing in 1279.

No physical claim beyond bombast was made until the PLA-N gunboats showed up recently.

This would appear to be a matter of simple extortion by the Chinese, since their naval superiority to the Filipinos is overwhelming. The calculus is complicated, though. There is a strategic “pivot” of the Americans back to SE Asia, even as the DoD budget is about to get whacked by budget sequestration.

The Chinese assert a “First Island Policy” which has a curious resonance with our own “Monroe Doctrine.” The closest point of Chinese territory to the Spratly Islands is roughly a thousand miles.

If you know how much of the merchant traffic of the Pacific is funneled through the navigable waters of the South China Sea, you might sit up and get concerned.

I know I am, particularly when you consider what the maritime claims look like, really.

The Logo of the Rolling Stones.

Have a great day. Do dragons swim? Of course they do. I needed something else to worry about, just when ENS Socotra could be ordered to be a proud 7th Fleet Sailor.

Copyright 2012 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com