The panoply about the sporting event later today can be viewed as an interesting pivot point. We couldn’t tell if withdrawal from televised sports is what makes the wanton publicity more garish than usual. That mild uncertainty started before the pandemic, and reflects the breadth of change. There is a partly religious aspect to some of it. The base contention that the world we know is about to end without dramatic action is getting a little tiresome. The great listless lurch of the Post-Cold War Reordering is playing out in a bizarre re-enactment of 1914 warfare in Ukraine. Participants include a diminished but nuclear-armed Russia.

That situation is a European deja vu of horror experienced by two previous generations. The warning lights would have gone crimson at the first discussion of the use of WMD to solve a European jurisdictional matter. We have come to accept it as the anniversary of the start of hostilities looms. Have the Offensive started or will it come after the muddy season in Spring? So, the existing Amber flashing lights are just blinking a bit more rapidly.

Back home it is interesting as well. The sudden public focus on the activities of the North American Air Defense system has brought attention to a national technical capability some of us used to deal with. It was optimized to perform against aircraft and missile threats. There are other targets now. We mentioned the recent change in threat definitions the other day- the ones that changed reporting criteria from “UFO” to “UAP.” That is part of an attempt to adapt to changing threats. The string of four (so far) aerial events raise questions on doctrine, training and resources against . We need to remember that rapid change can add uncertainty to decision-making, and that increases risk.

The Air Defense system is an interesting case. Treatment of the first in the current string of floating “Objects” became a matter of controversy. “Demonstration of resolve” then became a military mission and produced more targets from a data stream not normally incorporated in response. We are applying crisis management to an R&D issue. That has been attempted before with mixed results.

With the prevailing winds out of the west, the air defense situation invites attention to China. The reality appears to reflect the long march to number Two in the global hierarchy. There are challenges for China ahead. And challenges for those who will have to deal with it.

The international side has a lot going on. We have some interesting domestic tidal motions with the 2024 campaign starting its rumbling. Like the Game Day hyperbole it shares, there is a raw freshness to it. To tamp that down to as the coin-flip and kick-off loom, we are watching an assortment of Hollywood Musicals. There is a certain science-fiction flair to them today…

So, in keeping with that technology, more of those “amber colored things” blinking, like this is all in Technicolor. That perception is an old habit based on old technology. The new system is more responsive. It simply adjusts the strength of the lights that shine.

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com