We had a nice piece to run from our pal Arrias this morning that called out to history and the astonishing confluence of events in our world today. That minimized the urgency to put something into production for street circulation, and likewise lessened our Attorney’s attention, since she thought nothing was liable to escape into digital dissemination that could threaten her position. She is supposed to protect the Publishing House, of course, not ensure compliance with ill-defined standards administered with potential legal issues by previous employers.

We are all OK with that. We recognize that is the system, and we have expended the enthusiasm of younger years in fights against foes who were vanquished on other terms in other places. We stress to any authorities tasked with monitoring potential problems that there are none here. We are universal in our commitment to the victors in whatever struggles are in progress. Not that we don’t have feelings.

This was an interesting morning with Zoom connections to the Old Salts. As a group, they served all over and all share a “targets that count” attitude toward current events. Some of us wrestle with the impact of new technologies on old means of warfare, with the latest unpleasantness in the last 150-years of trouble in the Balkans a constant backdrop. There have been some interesting developments, one coming this morning.

Perhaps you have heard of the surprising number of Russian General officers who have perished. This morning, early, it was five. This afternoon it was six, if you include a Navy Admiral reportedly killed in the fighting around Mariupol. That in itself is a curiosity, and may reflect something in common with the new requirement for senior leadership to provide on-the-spot guidance. We recognize we are operating on Open Source information, not the old classified systems that provided information on which we had a reasonable level of confidence in objective truth.

So, our analysis is flawed by source, but at least subject to analysis based on target experience. America has lost general officers in our long Anti-terror campaign in the middle east. Those losses were attributed to internal actions by local allies. The Russian losses are different, and led to speculation across the spectrum on how this mechanized invasion of a Western nation was going.

The loss of Generals is significant as an indicator of other things. There was a body of thought that the tactical component of the force was hampered by logistics. All other aspects considered, if fuel, food and maintenance are in short supply, it says something about larger readiness issues unexpected from what we knew as the storied Red Army.

That led quickly to some back and forth about whether existing resources allocated to the Russian military machine were properly allocated to support basic training and readiness issues. That led to a discussion of how expensive it is to maintain a Research and Development establishment sufficient to develop and test advanced hypersonic technology. Then there is a question of the production capability for these weapons systems. It was intended to be supported by the export market, but with the sudden crisis in short term capabilities, the entire supply chain of military and private economic issues is at risk.

Some one asked why? The conversation- not attributable to anyone here or associated with Socotra House- included the various iterations of the competing information narratives. “Putin is nuts!” was one of them rapidly dispelled.

In leadership matters, the general opinion is that Mr. Putin may in fact have some health issues related to the stress under which he has placed himself. But whether true or not, we have arrived in this place for reasons unrelated to health. Some assert that despite his long career as a Soviet Man, he also considers a thousand years of Russian history as the legacy he wishes to restore in some regard. We think his departure from the Moscow orbit is the only logical means of settling the Ukraine crisis. There are indications- Open Source ones- that there is an unfamiliar uncertainty about the continuity of the Putin Regime. We cannot judge the veracity of the stories, only that they exist. And we are equally confident that if there is an overthrow it must come at Russian hands to preclude real tragedy.

There is a further consensus of thought that the stalemate will continue in a bloody and horrific manner. As one of the new weapons, a cyberattack with real and dramatic consequences seems a likelihood. We saw a minor petroleum distribution problem in the Colonial Pipeline issue here in America’s East Coast last year. We can expect something of that order as a demonstration. It is terra incognita without established levels of response and limitation. That adds yet another uncertainty to be factored in calculations.

There is about an equal number of the Salts who are concerned that at some point in this conflict an event with mass consequences could occur. The spectrum has been discussed in public and in direct threats. The possibilities range through the ladder of chem, bio and nuclear events. All have pivot points, and a multitude of participants with varying interests. The European Union and NATO is the largest and closest, and one of the irritants that caused a Russian invasion. China is another, with an analogous issue on the large democratically-run island just off its shore. That has been an issue all our lives, from Quemoy and Matsu to the potential PRC amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the campaign season late this year.

Events in the real world reflect a constantly changing calculus. All of them are played out in against information streams we cannot relate to what we knew as objective truth.

There was an outburst of the relationship between the post-Cold War systems that emerged in the two former and current rivals in the 45-year course of the bi-polar world. The issues on our side are possibly as profound as those on the other, but even mentioning them is controversial and subject to censure. So we agreed to leave it with the observation that the American Republic has also seen dramatic change since the Berlin War fell.

We could have talked about that, but the Attorney was coming back to the circle, and no one needed further conflict inside our fences when there is so much swirling outside them.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com