(The complete USCG Ice Breaker inventory- both of them together at McMurdo Sound in Antartica).

Goodness, there is a lot to consider this morning. It is exactly fifty years since Lyndon Johnson declared war on poverty, and I was amazed to hear his declaration on NPR this morning. I forget how creepie that guy was.

I am gratified that the ice-strengthened ships Akademik Shokalskiy and Xue Long, have broken free from the ice in Antarctica and are no longer in need of assistance. If you recall, the United States had dispatched the USCG ice-breaker Polar Star to go help out, but that will apparently not be necessary now.

The Denialist camp in the great Climate War had a field day with the story, of course, clucking about the irony of the Warmist Scientists getting trapped in the ice they predicted was going away. Actually, the ice at the South Pole is approaching record levels, and has been increasing the last two years at the North Pole as well.

But that gets us way off track. Remember, the total ice extent has only been subject to comprehensive measurement since the start of the satellite age in 1979, so “records” are established (high or low) only in the context of the last thirty-five years. This last bit of frigid air that paralyzed the midsection of the country has not been seen since before that, so the precise extent of the periodic waxing and waning of the polar ice is not known for longer than any of us have been alive.

But weather is not climate, remember?

I got kicked in the shins about the whole “denial” thing. You know how loaded the term is, and words actually do have meanings outside the context in which they are used. “Climate Deniers” invokes the nasty neo-whatevers who claim the mechanized slaughter of six million Jews in Germany and its occupied territories didn’t happen.

The very idea is horrific. But the talking points usually go that “deniers” are in the pockets of “big oil” and are running a public scam akin to that of “Big Tobacco” in denying that smoking causes lung cancer, and most deniers believe that the lunar landings were simulations conducted on a sound stage somewhere.

Seriously.

For the record, the amount of money spent on climate issues by the government dwarfs that contributed by the private sector (those darn Koch Brothers!) by so many billions that any meaningful comparison is absurd. The research grant process tends to reward the most urgent crisis-driven papers for publication- and the peer review process ensures that everyone stays on the same page.

The Daily Socotra is four-square for the notion that the climate changes, and joins the 97% of climate scientists who believe in global warming. It has, modestly, and is part of the “settled science” thing. Also for the record, the direct linkage between global temperature and levels of the trace gas CO2 is getting increasingly tenuous.

The number of parts per million of Carbon Dioxide in the air has risen significantly over the last twenty years, and I am fully prepared to accept that it may indeed have contributed in part to the increase in surface temperatures that seems to have paused sixteen years ago. Clearly, the science is not as settled as the computer models would suggest. But don’t trust me on that- trust the climate scientists themselves. Here is the graph used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

(IPCC Chart with IPCC chart comparing computer model projections- first, second third and fourth surveys- compared with actual observed temperatures (black, with margin of error bars). The disparity reflects the modeler’s basic assumption that CO2 levels drive temperature increase. The unsettled science suggests that there are more factors at play than an increase in the trace gas that makes up .04% of the atmosphere. Graph courtesy of the draft Fifth IPCC report).

I am prepared to believe that this is actually more complex than the conventional wisdom suggests, and am a little anxious that it might be getting cooler due to the grand solar minimum. If the ice is going to be with us for a while, I think the story actually is about ice breakers.

While the Russian and Chinese ships were trapped in the ice, USCGC POLAR STAR was directed to speed to their assistance. My pal Boats writes for American Admiralty Books (http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/) and maintains an active interest in navigation in the high latitudes. He wants to know “how many people know that Polar Star is ten years past her planned retirement date, and that the Coast Guard is cannibalizing parts from its sister ship, which is still shown as an active cutter?”

Here is the deal about operating in the high latitudes: The United States has exactly two research ice-breakers, with one held together with “paper clips and bailing wire,” though we have Antarctic stations to supply and over a 1,000 miles of Arctic ocean coast.

The USCG Commandant can’t see us providing any more presence in the Arctic than one ice capable (vice ice breaking) cutter for about three months of the year. As for the permanent presence such as a sector command in Barrow that the Congress has requested, he says he doubts we could do that before 2020 (if at all) given the present budget.

By way of contrast, China has a one-ocean coast, and has formed a brand new 930 ship Coast Guard. The US can barely muster eight High Endurance Cutters and there is talk about capping that number at six.

Add the two ice breakers, one of which is being used as a parts locker, a dozen or so medium endurance cutters, a couple of Navy conversions that would be classified somewhere between medium and high endurance cutters, perhaps a dozen buoy tenders, a couple of tugs , and hundreds of small craft under 65 feet.

With this motley armada, we are supposed to provide services to Atlantic, Gulf, Pacific , and Arctic coast lines each more than a thousand miles in length, plus provide services to the Great Lakes and 33,000 miles of inland water ways?

The Total personnel number for the USCG is roughly equivalent to that of the New York City police department.

If the ice is going to be with us for a while, and if there are a lot of minerals and hydrocarbons under it as they say there is, it would seem like we ought to take it seriously, you know?

(PRC ice breaker Snow Dragon conducts operations in the high latitudes).

Copyright 2014 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
Twitter: @jayare303