平成30年1月16日 = (30th Year of HEISEI Era, 1st Month, 16th Day)

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= This week’s poem:

The Way It Happens

Sometimes the best
Things a day can confer,
Have no reason,
They simply occur,
And the rest
Is just a blur…

{ From my Blog: https://carllafong.blogspot.jp }
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= 5 Things Going On Lately:

(1) Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is conducting surveillance activities off the Korean Peninsula to watch out for North Korea’s possible oil smuggling at sea, government officials said Saturday (13 JAN). The activities are being conducted in the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan from last month, and JMSDF sends a destroyer if a P-3C patrol airplane finds any suspicious ship. In November last year, the U.S. government said that a North Korean ship had carried out a ship-to-ship transfer of what appeared to be oil in a suspected effort to evade sanctions under U.N. Security Council resolutions. JMSDF is watching out for similar ship-to-ship transfers to North Korean vessels at the request of the United States. JMSDF takes images of suspicious ships and provide necessary information to the U.S. Navy. (Jiji Press)

* COMMENT: “Extra eyes” are always a good thing, and can be a force-multiplier … and no one does maritime patrol & reconnaissance better than JMSDF. However, it has been reported elsewhere that JMSDF cannot stop and board suspicious ships, so, obviously, that could limit the tactical effectiveness of the operations.

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(2) The Japanese government is considering adding in the future a function to intercept cruise missiles to the AEGIS Ashore land-based missile defense system the country plans to introduce to enable it to shoot down ballistic missiles from North Korea, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said Friday (12 JAN). The move is aimed at strengthening Japan’s deterrence against not only North Korea but also China and Russia, both of which are expanding the ranges of their cruise missiles. China and Russia have cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers and 4,500 kilometers, respectively, with both capable of reaching Japan. “It’s possible to add a function to intercept cruise missiles to the Aegis Ashore system,” Onodera said at a press conference. “We’ll study measures necessary to protect Japanese citizens from the threat of various missiles.” Compared with ballistic missiles, which descend from high altitudes to strike targets, it is believed to be difficult to track cruise missiles on the radar because they fly at low altitudes. Intercepting cruise missiles is difficult because of this. In addition, they can change courses during flights. (Jiji Press)

* COMMENT: So many types of missiles, and how to deal with them (!) … Is Japan faced with an insurmountable threat? All the more reason to solve things through diplomacy & non-kinetic means, as the alternative would seem to be too dreadful…
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(3) The government is considering temporarily evacuating Japanese and U.S. nationals and others in South Korea to Tsushima island in Nagasaki Prefecture via Busan Port, if airports in South Korea are closed due to a contingency on the Korean Peninsula. After temporarily evacuating people to the island with the help of JMSDF vessels and U.S. forces, the government plans to then shuttle them to Kyushu. The South Korean government has not agreed to the dispatch of JSDF to its country, but a plan has surfaced to bring a JMSDF ship alongside a U.S. military vessel docked at Busan Port and board Japanese nationals and others onto the JMSDF ship. In the case of a contingency on the Korean Peninsula, top priority will be given to people’s evacuation to Japan. In that case, the government plans to have the evacuees stay on the island, the Japanese territory located closest to Busan, for one or two nights. As U.S. civilians residing in South Korea are also supposed to evacuate to Japan, the government intends to transport them on ships of U.S. forces and JMSDF from Busan Port to Tsushima, and then take them by ship to Moji Port in Fukuoka Prefecture and other places in Kyushu. (Yomiuri Shimbun)

* COMMENT: This scenario and operation is emotionally and politically volatile … and would be a media magnet. Humanitarian, security, and medical issues galore, not the least of which is “What to do with the pets?” Add to the mix the possible flow of third country nationals, displaced Koreans, and possible North Korean special operations forces, and the stage is set for a very complicated evolution.
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(4) The Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is considering adding up to four new base facilities in Japan for seven large-scale patrol ships, which are to be newly built. The new bases would make it possible for JCG to swiftly deal with an increasing number of intrusions by Chinese government vessels in Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, and illegal operations by North Korean fishing boats in the Sea of Japan. After consulting with local municipalities, among other procedures, JCG intends to start constructing the bases within fiscal 2019. There are only two facilities under JCG’s jurisdiction where several large patrol vessels of over 1,000 tons are able to dock — Yokohama and Ishigaki-jima island in Okinawa Prefecture. Four candidate locations have emerged for new bases — Tsuruga, Fukui Prefecture, which faces the Sea of Japan; the city of Kagoshima, from where JCG vessels could quickly reach the East China Sea and the Senkakus; Ishigaki-jima; and Miyakojima island in Okinawa Prefecture. Currently, JCG has about 60 large patrol ships, including two helicopter-carrying destroyer-sized ships of about 6,500 tons. (Yomiuri Shimbun)

* COMMENT: A reminder that Japan’s front-line force to deal with the ongoing “territorial chicken game” around the Senkaku Islands is JCG (not JMSDF.) Happily (for now), it appears that Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea are being careful to leave the assertion of maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims to the “white-hulled vessels” of their respective Coast Guards.
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(5) Japan’s Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is developing a radar that will be capable of detecting space micro-debris of about 10 centimeters (3.9 inches), local media reported on Monday (08 JAN). According to the Yomiuri newspaper, the current JAXA’s radar is capable of finding the debris only of over 150 centimeters in Earth orbit, whereas the future radar, that is expected to be put into operation in 2023, will be about 200 times more sensitive. The new device will aim to study the ways of preventing the collisions between the space debris and the satellites that are operating at the height of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles). The Japanese Defense Ministry is preparing to construct in Yamaguchi Prefecture another radar that will be capable of detecting the space debris in geosynchronous orbit at the height of around 36,000 kilometers. (SputnikNews.com)

* COMMENT: Japan’s space operations capability continues to grow. A recent trend has been the growing involvement of the Ministry of Defense (MOD.) Assume Tokyo does not want to fall too far behind China in this area.
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= BONUS:

Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko will visit Okinawa Prefecture in late March, it was learned Friday (12 JAN). As part of the tour, the Emperor and the Empress are expected to make their first-ever visit to the island of Yonaguni, the country’s westernmost point, Okinawa prefectural government officials said. The upcoming visit to the southernmost Japan prefecture will be the couple’s sixth since the Emperor’s accession to the throne in 1989. This is expected to be their final Okinawa visit as the Emperor and the Empress.

* COMMENT: Wow, the Emperor will finish-up official duties by visiting Japan’s southernmost (and strategically located) island (population 1,850.) Quite a feather-in-the-cap for Yonaguni Mayor HOKAMA, who helped gain local approval for the first-ever deployment, a few years ago, of a JGSDF surveillance & security unit to the island. Prior to that, it was said that the physical protection of Yonaguni consisted of two policemen, who shared one pistol.

Original content: copyright Carl LaFong
www.vicsocotra.com