Events, as they used to say as a bridge in the old motion picture serial adventures, continue.

Some don’t. As you know, I am following the wild chaos of the election with great interest and more than a little humor. My experience in generating favorable public messaging ran alongside the real political pros, and I appreciate the art. I was struck by the messaging at the marvelous Zoom convention last week. The disturbances caused by “mostly peaceful” rioters went unmentioned. The peril of the COVID Plague were center stage. Both were part of a larger information strategy, carefully constructed to integrate the points that resonate with the voters to effect change and apportion power. The process has a long and occasionally accurate history.

There were problems, of course. One thread proved unreliable, as you know. That was the one where a central coordinating committee dispatched earnest “demonstrators” equipped with body armor and masks and Molotov cocktails to the “protest” the latest outrage against justice. Or something, I couldn’t tell after a dozen downtowns burned. The Kenosha Crisis of this week demonstrated how things evolve in public policy. Some folks from out of town got busted there yesterday. They were identified by the out-of-state plates on a couple SUVs and a blacked-out bus filled with necessary supplies for Justice. Like body armor, jugs of gasoline and sandwiches.

(The Riot Kitchen. Image from the Seattle Times).

It was an impressive list of things that went along with it- you remember. “Abolish the cops!” was one of the cool memes shouted by “demonstrators” while they were smashing windows and carrying off merchandise. It was working for a while, and was a bizarre inversion of what happened the last time street violence was considered a useful political strategy. I was only 17 back when the Chicago police were let loose by Mayor Daley on demonstrators. The popular description at the time was about a “police riot.” The inclination to travel to see it in person deflated quickly.

What happened this time was strangely inverted. We are apparently not quite ready for revolutionary change, even though the cities themselves had been transformed and the police defanged. The nightly rioting, burning and looting became a new norm for city living in areas already occupied by political allies.

Everyone lies about everything these days, and I make no particular distinction between the stories on the left or right. What is important is whether people believe or disbelieve the narratives contained in the larger information campaign. It began to appear that a coordinated campaign of violence was not a big vote-getter, but by the time the realization got through to the planners, that narrative attacking the majority of citizens for committing unseen crimes wasn’t selling.

Accordingly, the two pillars of the campaign were reduced to a single one. You know, the Plague. I am distrustful of all numbers issued from whatever source, having played that game in my professional life. But one that tells a story seems to have come from a reputable source. It is from the Center for disease Control, the famed CDC. It depicts the number of all deaths in the United States, a number they consider carefully. The intensity of an epidemic is normally presented in the number of fatalities each month that exceeds the number we would expect in normal times. Simple enough, unless a political position demands that an emergency must still in progress in order to facilitate important change most people seem to be uncertain about.

The problem is that the number of deaths has been slightly less than what happens all the time. For several weeks. According to the numbers, the epidemic of excess deaths ended back in June. Maybe it was masks and social distancing and house arrest that did it, but the fact remains that fewer people are dying of all causes than usual.

So, from two pillars of resistance to the current administration- riots and plague- one appears to have disintegrated. There are weeks before I can cast an in-person ballot with a reasonable chance that it count the way I mark it and so much can happen that could turn things around. I am eager to see what it might be. This is an amazing demonstration of bubble think in our media hubs, popularized by Mr. Ben Rhodes, a member of the previous administration who on principal refuses to accept the results of the last election.

There is another set of numbers I find interesting- the Electoral College. A lot of people dislike this basic component of our Constitution because it doesn’t work for them. Time Magazine, a charter bubble member, did their own math based on some claims by opponents. Their numbers were validated by the impartial liberal fact checkers at Snopes.com. TIME magazine put the election results at 2,649 counties across the nation voting for Trump, and 503 for Secretary Clinton. Of course, there is more fun with numbers, since “counties” don’t reflect total number of votes contained in the ones that preferred Mrs. Clinton.

But that simple account is why the Founders had to empower the countryside against the overwhelming numbers of urbanites, and why we are not a “democracy.” We are a constitutional Republic. Both groups have unique issues, and the EC was intended to ensure that each provided a valuable constituency in any campaign.

Like truth, that is now a matter of opinion. If I was in the Biden Bubble, I would be bemused at the alternatives. The plague was the last big issue that could be used to topple the uncaring, unfeeling, unempathetic Mr. Trump. And yet the plague appears to be over, and now Mr. Biden has to be maneuvered out of his basement to convince us it is not.

The dance on that front is already starting. Mrs. Clinton has told Mr. Biden not to accept an unfavorable election result. 600 lawyers have already been hired to contest everything. The Speaker of the House has said that the President is so evil that no debate should dignify his lying. The game-board is already set for what is to come. This will be fascinating and historic!

How Mr. Biden is doing, health wise, is another one of those fun with numbers games. The next step, after the virtual conventions, is to find something that he can say effectively and that will win.

The challenge confronting the Biden campaign is finding what will work, given the challenges. This is tough. Perhaps they can find some numbers they like. It will be cool to follow, and I am eager to see what it might be. The Russia thing, and the Ukraine thing, and the Russian Bounty thing, and now the Postal thing haven’t come together. Those messages seem stale. The plague thing still has legs, if presented with the right numbers, and if we want national masking mandates and another national economic shut down, I can recommend a great candidate.

The hoopla surrounding it all will be spectacular, and is likely to continue for months after Election Day. Absentee-in-person voting starts here in Virginia in three weeks, and the numbers be damned.

Copyright 2020 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com